Beltway Boys

$26 Million For Carlos Beltran? Nationals Lucked Out

2011-12-25T14:58:00.000-07:00

There were a lot of Nationals' fans unhappy with the team last winter when they signed outfielder Jayson Werth to that 7-year, $126 million contract.

Unhappy not because they got Werth, who was and continues to be a quality major league outfielder. It was that contract that left a bad taste in the mouths of so many fans.

That wasn't a bad contract. You maybe could call in questionable, but not bad.

The contract that the St. Louis Cardinals gave Carlos Beltran a couple of days ago--now that was a bad contract. And really, that could have been Washington who, fearing that they would not be able to fill a hole in their lineup for 2012--gave an aging star far too much in return for what probably will be far too little.

Bad contract, man. I'm talking $26 million bad.

There is no question that Beltran was at one time a premier player. From 1999 through 2008--playing for both the Royals and the Mets, he averaged .281/.357/.497 with 29 home runs, 108 RBI and 30 steals.

But injuries limited both his effectiveness and his playing time in 2009 and 2010. The 34-year-old averaged just 72 games per season and hit .295-17-75. Yes, he rebounded in 2011,batting .300-22-84, using a combination of health and his own personal fountain of youth.

That said, there is no way that Beltran is worth $13 million a year.

The Cardinals, still hurting over the loss of Albert Pujols to the Angels, decided to sign someone quick, anyone, to replace him.

That turned out to be Beltran.

Sure, there is a chance that Beltran hits .300 and hits another 24 homers like he did last year, but is that worth $13 million? No way.

In the end, that is just too much money for too many expectations and not enough talent left in the tank.

Signing Mark Buehrle or Trading For Gio Gonzalez: Which Would Have Cost The Nationals More?

2011-12-23T14:42:00.000-07:00

It's been almost 24 hours since the Washington Nationals acquired pitcher Gio Gonzalez and fan reaction has pretty much fallen into two categories regarding the deal.

Either the team gave up way to much for a pitcher that walks way too many batters, or the 26-year-old Gonzalez will indeed help make the Nationals contenders in 2012.

But within both groups there is a common link. Many on both sides think that if the team wanted to add a top-end starter, they should have signed him as a free agent instead of trading for him.

This way, the logic goes, they could have gotten him for "nothing."

Make sense?

Let's take the case of Mark Buehrle, the former White Sox hurler who signed a four-year, $58 million deal with the Miami Marlins a couple of weeks ago.

That works out to $14.5 million per year for Buehrle, who will be 33 at the beginning of the contract and 36 when it ends in 2015.

Over that same period of time, Gonzalez will probably earn about as much in four years as Buehrle will earn in one.

In his two full years, Gonzalez has averaged a 16-10 record with a 3.17 ERA. During that same period, Buehrle went 13-11, 3.94 and hasn't won 16 games in a season since 2005.

After 12 major league seasons, Buehrle is as good as he's going to get and will probably begin to decline fairly quickly, something that happens to all pitchers at this stage in their careers. Gonzalez, though, at 26, continues to get better as he refines his game.

True, the Nationals gave up four quality prospects, but history suggests that only one or two of them will have successful careers. Popped tendons, lost release points, and 100 mph fastballs will keep some of them from reaching their potential.

By not signing Buehrle, the Nationals also saved their top pick in the upcoming amateur draft, something they would have forfeited had they signed him.

They also saved roughly $45 million which would just about cover the first two years of a potential Prince Fielder contract, or more than the amount required to sign local boy Joe Saunders, a John Lannan-esque pitcher capable of easily replacing him in the Nationals' rotation

The Nationals could then trade Lannan and receive in return a couple of good-to-decent prospects, players that would help replace the kids lost in the Gonzalez trade.

Trading for Gio Gonzalez instead of signing Mark Buehrle really didn't cost the Nationals anything. It was just a different way of accomplishing the goal that team GM Mike Rizzo said was a priority for months--adding a durable starter to the pitching staff.

The team "lost" four prospects instead of $45 million. Are each of those kids worth $11 million to the Nationals? While this might change, right now I'd have to say no.

All in all, it was a good day for the Nationals.

Gio Gonzalez: Taking A Different Look At Nationals New Rotation

2011-12-22T23:21:00.000-07:00

Newest National Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez is now a National and the Washington Nationals are now contenders.

Just like that.

The American League all-star cost the Nationals Brian Peacock, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris and A.J. Cole, a rich haul to be sure. But none of those players were in the team's plans for 2012 and now a good rotation is close enough to great that it's no longer a long-distance call.

Gonzalez joins Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, giving the team as good a top-of-the-rotation as you'll find in the league. Add John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang and there isn't a breather for the opposing team.

Take a look at these stats. Strasburg, Zimmermann and Wang's numbers are based on last year's numbers based on 30 starts. Lannan's and Gio's are their actual stats:

1--Strasburg: 12-8, 2.54 (6.9/1.9/11.3)

2--Zimmermann: 10-11, 3.18 (8.6/1.7/6.9)

Ross Detwiler

3--Gio Gonzalez: 16-12, 3.12 (7.8/4.1/8.8)

4--John Lannan: 10-13, 3.70 (9.5/3.7/5.2)

5--Chien-Ming Wang: 12-9, 4.04 (9.7/1.9/3.6)

And if one of them gets hurt, here are Ross Detwiler's numbers from last year, based on 30 starts:

6--Ross Detwiler: 12-15, 3.00 (8.6/2.7/5.6)

The four National League playoff teams from last season averaged 65 wins from their top five starters. The Nationals' top five listed above would have won 60 games.

They are close, really really close.

Mark DeRosa Ready To Join Nationals

2011-12-21T20:57:00.000-07:00

It looks like Mark DeRosa is going to be joining the Nationals in 2012.

The 36-year-old will be the team's super-utility player. In 2009, his last full year in the majors, he played significant time at first base, third, as well as both left and right field.

From 1998 through 2005, DeRosa was mostly a part-time player, averaging .263/.320/.380 with 3 home runs and 13 RBI. But over the next four seasons, he was an every-day player, hitting .281/.356/.448 with 17 homers and 80 RBI.

Injuries, though, have kept him either on the disabled list or the bench the past two seasons. He hit just .194/.279/.258 in 2010 with the Giants in just 93 at-bats. He rebounded somewhat last year, hitting .279/.351/.302 in 86 at-bats with San Francisco.

He has played for Atlanta, Texas, Chicago and San Francisco over his 14-year career.

Dear Mike Rizzo: Forget Fielder, Keep Adam LaRoche

2011-12-21T19:23:00.001-07:00

In most every story written about premier free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, the Washington Nationals are listed as one of the teams pursuing him.

Some suggest the team is making the 27-year-old a signing priority while others say they are at least in the mix.

If the Nationals were to somehow sign Fielder, he will end up costing them more than $20 million a year. Does that make sense for Washington, who still controls Adam LaRoche for another year?

Here are the two player's stats based on their last five years and based on a playing 162 games (LaRoche's numbers are based on 2006-2010 because of his injury-shortened 2011 campaign):

Fielder: .284/.400/.537, 38 home runs, 112 RBI

LaRoche: .273/.343/.493, 29 home runs, 99 RBI

Over the course of a full season, Fielder will reach base 39 more times than LaRoche, will hit 9 more home runs and drive in 13 more runs.

Defensively, Fielder is adequate and LaRoche, while not a Gold Glover, is close to it.

Adam LaRoche will earn $8 million in 2012 while Fielder will probably sign a contract worth $23 million or so over seven or eight years.

Is that additional offensive production (roughly one run every 12 games) worth the extra $15 million, especially when those extra 13 runs will probably be offset by Fielder's so-so glove?

Absolutely not.

LaRoche--assuming he is healthy this season--will hit 25 or so home runs and drive in close to 100 runs. Next season, Michael Morse will return to first base and the top-rated prospect in all of baseball--Bryce Harper--will take over in left.

And with the $15 million that the Nationals would save by not signing Prince Fielder, the Nationals could acquire a top-of-the-line center fielder.

Sometimes, the best thing to do is to do nothing. The Nationals can contend in 2012 with Adam LaRoche at first. Prince Fielder would be little more than decoration for the Nationals.

Very expensive decoration.

Chatter About Gio To Nationals: I Say Go For It

2011-12-21T10:55:00.000-07:00

Ken Rosenthal reported on Monday night that the Washington Nationals are trying very hard to get a deal done for the Oakland Athletics' Gio Gonzalez.

Reports suggest some type of a four-for-one trade would be needed to obtain the lefty 26-year-old from the Athletics.

Because he plays in a division far far away and in a league we almost never see, Gonzalez isn't a well known commodity to most Nationals fans.

But he is a really good pitcher.

A lefty, the six-foot, 200 pounder has averaged 16-10, 3.17, 7.7/4.1/82 over the last two seasons.

He is controllable for the next four years and would provide the Nationals a fifth solid arm for next year's rotation. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gonzalez, John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang would in all likelihood comprise a playoff rotation.

Who would the Nationals be willing to give up for Gio Ganzalez? Certainly the Athletics would want to replace Gonzalez in the rotation, and Ross Detwiler would fit the bill. They'd need to throw in another starter, someone like Tommy Milone, Daniel Rosenbaum or Brian Peacock (probably Peacock). Catcher Derek Norris would certainly make sense, and adding Roger Bernadina as one of those change-of-scenery-might-help players might sweeten the deal.

This time last year, the Nationals had completed a 4-for-1 trade for then Royals' starter Zack Greinke but it fell apart when Greinke invoked his no-trade clause and ended up in Milwaukee.

But the team wasn't close enough to contention at that time and adding Greinke at the cost of the team's future made no sense. But it does now. Stephen Strasburg is healthy. Danny Espinosa is a Gold Glove second baseman with power. Micahel Morse is a 30-home run power hitter.

And Wilson Ramos is a superb catcher.

Now is the time to give up prospects--especially blocked ones like Norris--and turn a good starting rotation into a great one.

Hey Mike, the time has come. Make the deal.

For the Nationals, There Are A Lot of Good "Plan B's" Out There

2011-12-12T09:16:00.000-07:00

Just because the Washington Nationals struck out at the just completed Baseball Winter Meetings, there is no reason for the team to throw up their hands and say, "Well, at least we tried." Team General Manager Mike Rizzo went for the creme of the free agency crop, and creme is always more expensive than the milk that is left behind.

Maybe for the Nationals, milk is just fine.

This Nationals team has the capability to contend in 2012, even without that much needed middle-of-the-rotation starter and a top center fielder. So why not split the difference and get a couple of good-but-not-great players through a trade, from perhaps a team that is going to continue the fire sale that began last season.

There wasn't much left in the Houston Astros outfield after Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence was traded away. But one player remaining could certainly help Washington.

Jason Bourgeois is a 29-year-old outfielder who played for three teams in three years before returning to Houston last season. Playing half the season, Bourgeois hit .294/.323/.357 and if you base his stats on a 500 at-bat season, would have collected 140 hits, 16 doubles, 4 triples, 2 home runs, 32 RBI and 64 stolen bases. He doesn't hit righties as well as I'd like, but he does play a solid center field.

You would think that a 29-year-old player with just 401 career at-bats wouldn't cost much in a trade, and Bourgeois could be a quality stop-gap until such time when whatever happens in the Nationals outfield (say: Bryce Harper) happens.

I think Bourgeois would provide she short-term relief the Nationals are seeking, both in center at as a leadoff batter.

And if the Nationals are still seeking that veteran starter capable of throwing 200 innings, the team would need look no farther than a few spots up the Astros roster until they find the name Wandy Rodriguez.

At 32, Rodriguez is John Lannan with a higher strikeout rate. Over his last four seasons, Rodriguez has averaged 13-12, 3.40, 8.6/3.0/8.2. He's old enough now that he'll never be around when the Astros begin to win with the talent they have been acquiring the last couple of seasons.

Both players will cost the Nationals minimal salary increases. Wandy Rodriguez will make $11 million over the next two seasons before he gains his free agency while Bourgeois will make $500,000 dollars in 2012.

To get the two players, the Nationals will likely offer one or two of their young pitchers, perhaps Tommy Milone and A.J. Cole. Thrown in as well to cover Bourgeois would be someone like Roger Bernadina, someone who has the ability to be an everyday player but has yet to do it.

That's a win-win for both sides and gives the Nationals a serviceable outfielder and a solid pitcher.

Here's hoping that the Nationals don't stop looking because they didn't get their first choice to take to the dance.

Nationals Should Have A "Plan B" And His Name Should Be Edwin Jackson

2011-12-09T14:58:00.000-07:00

Now that the Washington Nationals have missed out on both Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson, they claim that the team really never had a "Plan B," and that they are content heading into the 2012 season with a rotation made of players they now control.

I have no problem filling the back of the rotation with John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler or Brad Peacock, but if the team really wants to contend next year--or at least try to--they need to add one more top-of-the-rotation starter to join Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.

My guess is general manager Mike Rizzo is still looking for another starter, and Roy Oswalt certainly remains a potential target.

But there are several quality starters still available, some with the same talents and statistics that made Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson so intriguing.

What about them?

What about, say, Edwin Jackson?

Jackson is an aggressive pitcher with a good fastball. He pounds the strike zone and breaks bats. His problem, though, is with his control. When he can't find the strike zone, he forces his team to endure long at-bats and even longer innings.

That said, he would be an ideal number-three starter. Over the past four seasons, Jackson has averaged 12-10 with a 3.99 ERA, allowing 9.4 hits and 3.2 walks while striking out 6.7 batters per nine-innings.

No, that's not great, but it's pretty good. And Buerle would have cost the Nationals more than $15 million, about twice what Jackson would cost.

Picture what Jason Marquis did for the Nationals last season before his trade to Arizona and that's what the Nationals would likely get out of Jackson. In 20 starts last year, Marquis went 8-5, 3.95, 9.8/3.0/5.3. During his time in Washington, he was the team's second-best pitcher behind Jordan Zimmermann.

Marquis cost the team $8 million per season and would have won 10-12 games had he remained all year. Jackson will cost the team about $8 million and would win 10-12 games for the Nationals.

Jackson, however, is just 27, five years younger than Marquis, and has the talent to improve as his career progresses.

Sign Jackson to a three year contract (or a two year deal with a club option) and then trade Ross Detwiler, Tommy Milone or Brad Peacock as part of a package for that coveted center fielder.

Someone like Adam Jones of the Orioles.

Just because the Nationals didn't get the pitcher they wanted doesn't mean they still can't the pitcher they need.

With Whispers of Adam Jones Availability, What Would The Baltimore CF Cost The Nationals?

2011-12-07T22:58:00.001-07:00

The Washington Nationals came to Dallas intent on signing a veteran pitcher capable of both leading and teaching their youthful starting rotation.

Mark Buehrle was "Plan A" and team GM Mike Rizzo was so confident that a deal could be reached that he really didn't have a "Plan B."

In most years, Washington would have signed the 32-year-old with relative ease, but this isn't most years. With the Miami Marlins working feverishly to stock talent to play in their new stadium, they swooped in and offered more money--and more years--and now Mark Buehrle is a Marlin.

Both Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson have repeated this evening that the team is content to head into next season with the rotation they now have. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang and probably Ross Detwiler, they believe, should be enough to help the Nationals contend in 2012.

And they are probably right.

But for that to happen--for the Nationals to be able to rely on that rotation--they must come up with a proven center fielder. Names like Denard Span, B.J. Upton and Peter Bourjos are most often mentioned and any of them would fit the bill nicely.

But if the Nationals can't strengthen their rotation, their new center fielder needs to be really special, someone who can be a difference-maker every time he steps to the plate.

Someone like Adam Jones.

New Orioles' general manager Dan Duquette has been saying all week that he is not looking to trade the talented center fielder, that he would have to be "blown away" to make a deal.

General managers say that a lot, don't they?

Jones is the kind of guy a GM would be willing to trade multiple prospects for. He came to Baltimore from Seattle in a multi-player trade that sent Eric Bedard to the Mariners.

Over the last three years, Jones has averaged .281/.326/.455 with 25 home runs and 86 RBI. He's been an All Star and has won a Gold Glove.

And he is only 25.

Normally, this is the kind of player a team would want to build a team around. But the Orioles won just 69 games in 2011. A once promising young rotation has shown itself to be far more young than promising and their few decent everyday players have shown themselves to have gaping holes in their game.

Mark Reynolds, for example, hit 37 home runs last year but struck out 196 times and batted just .221.

They remind me a lot of the Washington Nationals of three or four years ago.

Other than center, only shortstop (J. J. Hardy, .269-30-80), right field (Nick Markakis, .284-15-73) and catcher (Matt Weiters, .269-22-68) seem manned by players that are part of the Orioles' long-term plan.

Adam Jones is a tremendous player. If the Orioles are willing to trade him, it is going to take some real prospects to land him.

What would it take?

1--Stephen Lombardozzi, who has a career minor league slash line of .298/.369/.411 and won a minor league Gold Glove last year.

2--Brad Peacock, who was named Double-A Pitcher of the Year in 2011 after going 15-3, 2.39 for Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse

3--Roger Bernadina, who though he averaged .245-9-37 the past two seasons still has the talent to be an everyday player

4--A medium level prospect, someone like Tyler Moore who has averaged 30 homers over the past two seasons, or a better prospect who is younger and still in the low minor leagues.

The Nationals are ready to contend beginning in 2012, and the addition of Jones will give the team a formidable outfield with Michael Morse in left and Jayson Werth in right. Morse will likely move back to first in 2013 with Bryce Harper replacing him in left.

Obviously, there is much to look forward to for Nationals fans.

Ross Detwiler The Answer For Washington Nationals If Team Can't Find Another Starter

2011-12-06T12:06:00.000-07:00

Last night, the rumor mill had it just a matter of time before C.J. Wilson signed a six-year contract with the Washington Nationals. Then--just like that--came a flood of denials from team sources saying they made no such offer.

Now the word is the Nationals aren't terribly sure they will be able create enough distance between themselves and the other suitors for Mark Buehrle, the pitcher they have always wanted. Suddenly, manager Davey Johnson is making himself available to the media. telling anyone who will listen that all is well with the team's rotation.

In one of the first scrums of the morning, Johnson said, "You know, I really like my staff. I like it as it is right now. Any time you can improve, go for it, [but] I haven't been pushing in that direction."

So what does that mean? If the Nationals return home with no additional starters to shore up the rotation, can the Nationals really, truly contend in 2012?

Yes, I think so.

Let's take a look at how the existing rotation members might do in 2012. The wins and losses are based on them pitching for a team with a good but not great offense and an outstanding bullpen. All the other stats are based on their career averages (or last season's numbers if necessary)

Stephen Strasburg (22): 12-6, 2.54 (6.9/1.9/11.3)

Strasburg, if he's not the best pitcher in the National League on opening day, will be by season's end. Though his season will end early as he continues to rehab from Tommy John Surgery, his 160 innings will be enough to at least place the Nationals in a position to contend for a Wild Card berth.

Jordan Zimmermann (25): 12-8, 3.18 (8.9/.2.2/7.7)

Strasburg

Zimmermann blossomed into the pitcher the Nationals thought he would be in 2011. Over his first 18 games, he went 6-7, 2.66 with 82 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 115 innings. His opponents offensive slash line was just .237/.275/.328.

Over his last 10 starts, he tired and his numbers suffered, though not that badly. Zimmermann went 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a .278/.325/.457 slash line.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zimmermann out pitches Strasburg in 2012.

John Lannan (26): 11-9, 3.75 (9.4/3.7/4.7)

John Lannan is the reason I don't think the Nationals really need Mark Buehrle. Though the former White Sox southpaw has been doing it longer, their internal numbers are quite similar. The biggest difference is that Lannan has played his entire career for a loser, Buehrle for a winner.

Other than that, they are similar enough that the Nationals would only be a little better with Mark Buehrle in the rotation because, obviously, if Mark Buehrle comes, John Lannan goes, probably packaged in a deal designed to bring the team that center fielder they so badly want.

Chien-Ming Wang (31): 9-9, 3.86 (9.6/2.7/5.5)

Wang

After getting the rust out of his system--his first two starts were pretty bad--Wang reverted to pre-injury form last summer. In nine starts, he went 4-1, 3.71 (.251/.292/.391 opponent slash line). Those numbers are pretty much identical to his two All-Star seasons with the Yankees in 2006-2007 when he averaged 19-7, 3.68.

Wang is 100-percent healthy and could provide top-of-the-rotation quality from the back of the Nationals' rotation.

If the Nationals don't come up with that fifth starter, the team does have several youngsters to choose from, any of which could provide starts almost as good as Mark Buehrle or Roy Oswalt or C.J. Wilson:

25-year-old Ross Detwiler first pitched in the major leagues in 2007 and over the past two seasons has started 23 games, roughly what a number-five starter might over the course of a full season. Over that period, Detwiler has gone 5-8 with fine ERA of just 3.39, giving up 9.1 hits and 3.2 walks while striking out 5.5 per nine-innings.

He's ready. He has thrown 172 major league innings and has enough experience to grab the number-four spot in the rotation. If given the chance, a 10-10, 3.75 type of record would be very realistic.

24-year-old Tommy Milone has had an amazing minor league career since joining the Nationals' organization back in 2008. Over four seasons, the southpaw has a career record of 37-22 with an ERA of 3.05, walking just one batter per nine-innings while striking out 8.1.

In five starts with the Nationals last fall, Milone went 1-0 with a 3.81 ERA, walking just 1.4 batters per nine-innings and striking out 5.2.

Milone is very similar to Lannan but his deceptive follow through garners far more strikeouts while at the same time walking just a third of the batters than Lannan does.

Milone is ready and could take over a spot in the rotation if needed.

Brad Peacock came out of nowhere in 2012 and was named baseball's Double-A pitcher of the year after going 10-2, 2.01 with the Harrisburg Senators. He was promoted to Triple-A Syracuse and did almost as well, going 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA.

In 12 September innings, Peacock went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA. He only allowed 5.3 hits per nine-innings but walked 4.5, much higher than his minor league career average. His strikeouts were down too, fanning just three per nine-innings.

Though Peacock without question has the best stuff of the three, he may need a little more time refining his skills in the minor leagues. And while Milone gets by on guile and grit (and an 88mph fastball), another few months of minor league experience will only help him.

Ross Detwiler

That means that Ross Detwiler is the guy most likely to fill the hole in the rotation if the Nationals can't find that starter they are looking for. That said, a full season of Detwiler will likely bring two or three fewer wins than a full season of Mark Buehrle, which isn't enough to keep them out of a Wild Card hunt but could be enough to allow a team to sneak past them in the standings.

I still believe that the best bet for the 2012 Nationals would be to sign Roy Oswalt to a two-year deal, move John Lannan down to the number-four starter, and give the kids one more year to polish their game before joining Washington for good in 2013.

Nationals Already Have Answer To Outfield Problem: His Name Is Bryce Harper

2011-12-05T23:18:00.000-07:00

Bryce Harper & Jayson Werth: The Future Is Now

After months of repeatedly telling us that priorities at the Winter Meetings would be a starting pitcher and a center fielder, we are now hearing that the Washington Nationals just might start Jayson Werth in center next season and insert Bryce Harper in right.

This whole process is a lot like buying a car at a dealership. No one tells the truth and no one expects you to. That said, what are the Nationals really up to? Are they really content moving Werth to center or was that statement for agents and players as part of the bargaining process?

Personally, I would much rather let Bryce Harper start in right on opening day and give him the opportunity to learn how to hit major league pitching sooner rather than later.

The last thing the team needs is to insert some stop-gap, good-enough-but-not-great center fielder into the lineup until Harper is ready.

Harper is a good enough hitter that he could overcome a potential slow start as he learns how to hit major league pitching and end the season with acceptable-to-good numbers. Unlike Danny Espinosa, who was unable to make corrections last year when major league pitchers figured him out, Harper is a student of the game and more than capable to make corrections as the season progresses.

Coco Crisp: No Way He's Better in 2012 Than Teen Harper

Given a full season, Harper should be able to hit .270/.340/.475 with 20 home runs and 70 RBI, give or take. And by 2013--when the Nationals should really be able to contend--he would have had enough time at the major league level to hopefully blossom into the star we all think he'll become.

Hopefully, team general manager Mike Rizzo comes away from Dallas with that starting pitcher he wants, but really, the outfield should be just fine.

All Bryce Harper needs is a chance.

Does A Potential Mark Buehrle Signing Make The Nationals That Much Better?

2011-12-03T13:04:00.001-07:00

Mark Buehrle -- Next Nationals Starter

Washington Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that by the time baseball's Winter Meetings conclude next week in Dallas, he wants to have come away with a veteran starting pitcher capable of not only being the rotation's leader but also its teacher.

C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt are the three most likely candidates that Rizzo is pursuing. If the team signs either lefty--Wilson or Buehrle--the Nationals will probably package John Lannan with a couple of prospects to get that last piece of the we-are-ready-to-contend puzzle, a center fielder able to lead off.

Reports indicate that Buehrle is the pitcher Rizzo wants the most and it looks like he may command a three-year, $45 million contract with an option year. Lannan will probably make an arbitration-enabled $3.5 to $4 million in 2012.

Is Buehrle worth that much more? Here are their 2011 statistics:

Mark Buehrle: 13-9, 3.59 (9.7/2.0/4.8)
John Lannan: 10-13, 3.70 (9.5/3.7/4.7)

Not too much of a difference, at least when you compare what their incomes will be in 2012.

The bottom line, then, based on their respective 2011 stats:
1--Over the course of a nine-inning game, Lannan will give up 1.5 more base runners than Buehrle
2--Over a 200 inning season, Lannan will give up 82 runs, Buehrle 79.

So over a full season (30 starts and 200 innings), John Lannan will allow 45 more base runners that will translate into three more earned runs.

John Lannan: Mr. Consistency

How much better would essentially trading Lannan for Buehrle make the Nationals? Not much, really. But if Buehrle signs as the number-three starter and Lannan moves down to number-four, that fill out a very nice rotation.

Here would be the starters and their probable (but it's a guess) ERA's:

1--Stephen Strasburg (3.00)
2--Jordan Zimmermann (3.20)
3--Mark Buehrle (3.50)
4--John Lannan (3.75)
5--Chien-Ming Wang (3.60)

That is a rotation capable of winning one of the two National League Wild Card spots.

And of course the team will need one or two more starters to cover for injuries and poor performance. It's that way every season.

Brad Peacock: Needs His Own Rotation Spot

How about one of these three (2011 stats shown):

1--Ross Detwiler: 4-5, 3.00 (8.6/2.7/.5.6)
2--Tommy Milone: 1-0, 3.81 (9.7/1.4/5.6)
3--Brad Peacock: 2-0, 0.75 (5.3/4.5/3.0)

I'm not sure I see a kink in the Nationals' pitching armor as long as Lannan remains in the rotation and it wouldn't surprise me--especially if they find that coveted center fielder--for the team to head into the last weekend of play with a playoff spot already secured.

With New CBA In Place, Nationals May Kick-Start Last Phase Of "The Plan"

2011-11-23T13:24:00.000-07:00

Jim Bowden At His First Press Conference In D.C.

"The Plan" is not something we've heard much about recently.

It wasn't too long ago that the Washington Nationals divested itself of any meaningful talent, trading the few quality players they had away for prospects while hoarding their draft picks in the yearly amateur draft.

In some point in the future, we were assured, the team's young talent would rise like cream to the top, filling all of the gaping holes on the major league roster.

And it seemed to work.

Last season, five of the team's eight starting position players were either cultivated through the team's minor league system or received as minor league prospects through trades. The same goes for three of their starting pitchers and their top two relievers.

In another two or three years, another crop of young pitchers will be ready to make the jump to the major leagues, giving the team one of the most formidable young rotations in the game.

Oh, and that kid, you know, the one who is supposed to be maybe the best hitting prospect since Ken Griffey Jr, he'll certainly be in the starting lineup by 2012.

I think his name is Bryce Harper.

Ken Griffey Jr.

But the way baseball operates has undergone a major change in the last few weeks, enough so that the Nationals might not want to wait for the next wave of rookies to mature.

With the handshake that accompanied the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, new rules have been placed in effect that may force the Nationals to look for those final pieces for a pennant run earlier than expected.

First, the addition of a second wild card entrant--possibly next year but no later than 2013--makes it much easier for a good-but-not-great team to get into the playoffs. As Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post pointed out in yesterday's column, all but one 90-win team over the past 15 years would have gotten into the playoffs under the new system.

Secondly, the cost for signing premium free agents has been reduced. Though the formula has become more complicated--no more "Type A" and "Type B" free agents, a team can still lose its top draft pick if the player was offered arbitration, but the guaranteed salary they would be forced to pay is so high that its likely that fewer players will be offered arbitration. My guess is this will allow the Nationals to be more aggressive with their free agent offers this winter.

And lastly, Washington will never again be able to do what they did last summer. The Nationals were able to draft four players with first round talent and then went way over-slot to sign them. New rules will make this a near impossibility in the future.

The Nationals, then, have three good reasons to make a splash this off season. Baseball Karma has given them a golden opportunity, if, that is, they can get to 90 wins. That means they will have to find a way to win 10 more games than last season.

How do they do it?

Having Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 1.50) back will certainly help. He'll be worth at least a couple of more wins in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Jordan Zimmermann (8-11, 3.18) will be available for the entire year and should give the Nationals another win. And Chien-Ming Wang (4-3, 4.04), who pitched in the majors for the first time in almost three seasons, will be far better as the team's number-five starter than was Tom Gorzelanny last year. Count on an extra win from him.

That's four wins down and six to go.

First baseman Adam LaRoche has a career 162-game average of .267-26-92 to go along with his stellar defense. Last year, arm and shoulder problems limited him to .172-3-15 in just 43 games. He is working out now in Phoenix is should be 100% ready by the beginning of spring training. A healthy LaRoche has to be good for another two wins.

All Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is also coming off an injury-plagued season. The 26-year-old played in just 101 games and his power was sapped due to an abdominal injury. A healthy Zimmerman will add another win, easily.

That gets the Nationals up to 87 wins, give or take.

The team can likely find two or more wins if they are able to sign or trade for a quality, veteran pitcher, someone along the lines of Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson (as free agents) and Wandy Rodriguez or Gio Gonzalez as potential trade targets.

That puts the team at roughly 89-73.

If the Nationals stay with an in-house solution in center, someone like Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina, they are not going to find the extra win or two among that group.

But you would think that the maturation of the team's younger players should be worth a couple of wins. Take a look at what those players did in 2011 and what they should be able to do this year:

Wilson Ramos: (2011) .267-16-52      (2012) .265-20-65
Danny Espinosa: (2011) .236-21-66     (2012) .260-25-75
Ian Desmond: (2011) .253-8-49          (2012) .270-10-50

If all goes well, if there are no heartbreaking injuries to deal with, or Werth-like slumps to live through or jaw-dropping regression by the kids to watch in stunned silence, the Nationals should finish the year with 85-90 wins in 2012, perhaps 92-93 if they find both that veteran pitcher and quality center fielder they are after.

Based on history, 89 wins could get them in the playoffs if the second wild card spot is available in 2012, and 90 wins will.

Can they make it? Here's hoping.

OSWALT OR BUEHRLE OR WILSON, OH MY!

2011-11-22T10:17:00.001-07:00

With baseball’sannual Winter Meeting now three weeks away, Nationals’ general manager MikeRizzo continues to focus on adding an experienced center fielder and a veteranstarting pitcher.

Roy Oswalt -- The Best Fit In Washington?

My guess is thatif Rizzo is going to make a splash at the meetings, it’s going to be with apitcher. If they have to, the Nationals can probably get by with a holdoverfrom last season (Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina) or a platoon of veteranscapable of giving the team some steady-if-unspectacular offense while providingsteady defense.

But adding anotherveteran starter is imperative if the team is going to make a true pennant run.Sure, Brad Peacock or Ross Detwiler or Tommy Milone might come out of nowhere and give the team 12-14 wins, but theyprobably won’t.

One more qualitystarter to go along with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan andChien-Ming Wang could actually make the Nationals—gulp, dare I say it?—an earlyfavorite in the hunt for one of now two Wild Card berths.

There are severalpitchers that meet Rizzo’s requirements, namely a veteran, “innings eater” typewho doesn’t have a history of injury problems.

Right now, MarkBuehrle, Roy Oswalt and C.J. Wilson are the most coveted of the available freeagents.

Who should be theNationals’ top choice among the three? Let’s take a look at their comparativestatistics:

Roy Oswalt (Age: 33)

Career Average:16-10, 3.29, 8.7/2.1/7.9

2011: 9-10, 3.69,9.9/2.1/6.0

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets: Has pinpoint control and an ability to throwplenty of first-pitch strikes. He's also an innings-eater with a winningattitude and leadership qualities.

Flaws: His diminutive stature has started to take itstoll, as he's not as dominant as he used to be. Also gives up a few too manyhits.

Mark Buehrle Seems GM Mike Rizzo's Favorite

Mark Buehrle (Age: 32)

Career Average:15-11, 3.83, 9.5/2.0/5.1

2011: 13-9, 3.59,9.7/2.0/4.8

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets: One of the game's great work horses, hedoesn't fatigue much late in the game. Logs a lot of innings, pitches tocontact and can lead a staff. Is successful throwing an array of off-speedpitches.

Flaws: When he loses focus, he gets knocked aroundfor big innings. That's due to less-than-stellar velocity and average stuff. Attimes, he can take a while to regain his focus when on the mound.

C.J. Wilson Has Just 2 Years of Starting Experience

C.J. Wilson (Age: 30)

Career Average(as starter): 16-8, 3.14, 7.4/3.5/7.9

2011: 16-7, 2.94,7.9/3.8/8.1

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets: Pitchesaggressively with a low-90s fastball that has great movement. Also boasts agood curve and solid change-up. Constantly challenges hitters. Is capable ofdominating left-handed batters. Can close, set up or start.

Flaws:Right-handed hitters have a little more success than lefty bats, so greaterrefinement in his pitches could help. Must improve his durability and staminato thrive in the starting rotation.

There is noquestion that all three pitchers have the potential to help the Nationalsbecome contenders, but that doesn’t mean they all bring the same abilities.

Of the three,Wilson will likely cost the most and require the longest contract. Reports frommultiple sources indicate that he has set his sights on a six-year, $120million deal. And while there is no way he’s going to get that much, he’s goingto come close as the top free-agent pitcher of the litter.

I think a more likelyscenario is $80 million over five years with an easy-to-reach sixth yearoption.

That is way toomuch money for any free agent pitcher not named Sabathia, but it is especiallytoo much considering that Wilson has only been a starter for two years and hasonly 73 starts under his belt.

I mean, who’s tosay that he won’t revert back to his days before becoming a starter when heaveraged 4.1 walks per nine-innings and had a bloated 4.30 ERA?

With the kind ofmoney Wilson is going to get, the Nationals can buy a quality starter and adecent center fielder.

Signing Wilsonmakes no sense, not from a talent perspective and not from a financialperspective. Let the Yankees overpay for him.

And though MarkBuehrle has been a model of consistency for the Chicago White Sox, his statsdon’t suggest that he is anything more than a good, consistent pitcher.

Mark Buehrle Seems Too Much Like This Guy

And those stats look close enough to currentNationals’ lefty John Lannan that I’m not sure it makes sense to give the32-year-old what he’s asking for, and no, I’m not suggesting John Lannan is thesame pitcher as Mark Buehrle.

But take a lookat their career averages based on a 162-game season:

Mark Buehrle:

15-11, 3.83 ERA,223 Innings Pitched, 9.5 hits per 9 innings / 2.0 walks per 9 innings /5.1strikeouts per 9 innings.

John Lannan:

10-14, 4.00, 200Innings Pitched, 9.4 hits per 9 innings / 3.4 walks per 9 innings / 4.7strikeouts per 9 innings.

Their lines justaren’t as different as you would expect. Lannan’s ERA is a bit higher, and hegives up one more walk per game, but his hits allowed and strikeouts allowedare about the same.

But look at this:In 33 starts, Lannan gave up 90 runs. Buehrle allowed 93 runs in one lessstart. That’s as close to identical two pitchers can be without being exactlyidentical.

And Lannanaveraged 5.6 innings per start while Buehrle went 6.5 innings per start.

Man, that’s justtoo similar.

I doubt that JohnLannan is going to be as successful as Buehrle over his career—in fact, I thinkwe can count on that—but that doesn’t mean they aren’t similar pitchers. True,Buehrle has averaged 15 wins per major league season and Lannan only 10, butLannan has spent his career on a truly terrible team.

Over Buehrle’scareer, the White Sox have averaged 87 wins per season, and in the threeseasons where they finished below .500, Buehrle had three of his worst seasons,winning 10 games in 2007 and 13 in both 2009 and 2011.

Lannan’sNationals, on the other hand, have averaged just 66 wins during his time inWashington, 21 games fewer than the White Sox. Had he played with the White Soxduring that same period, he would have likely averaged 12-13 wins per season.

So really, MarkBuehrle is a 2-3 win improvement over John Lannan, and that just doesn’twarrant the millions it will cost the team to get him.

In the end, Ithink that the least attractive of the three free agents could be the best fitin Washington.

Of the three, RoyOswalt will require the least amount of guaranteed money and the fewest numberof guaranteed contract years, due in part to injuries that have slowed him overthe last couple of seasons.

From 2001 through2010, Oswalt averaged 30 starts per season, going 15-8 with a fine 3.18 ERA.But he was limited to just 23 starts in 2011 and injuries robbed him of some ofhis efficiency. He went 9-10, 3.69 last season, giving up two more hits pernine-innings and striking out two less batters per nine.

Zimmermann & The Other Kids Could Use A Teacher

But Oswalt wouldbring far more to the Nationals than wins. He is a leader in the clubhouse,just the kind of guy that Mike Rizzo likes. The top three Washington starters—Strasburg,Zimmermann and Lannan—are all 26 or younger and fourth starter Chien-Ming Wang,while 31, has just 115 career starts, a relatively small number for his age.John Lannan, four years younger, has 13 more starts than Wang.

Oswalt couldbring a winner’s mentality to the starting rotation. He could be a teacher, aleader and darn fine starter. Because of his age, it is likely that Washingtonwould not want to / have to commit to a long-term deal, making that rotationalslot available to one the team’s young pitchers in a relatively short period oftime.

To be able tocontend, the Washington Nationals need a “rock” in the rotation to give thekids time to turn winning ability into games won. Once that happens—say in acouple of years—the team could then afford to bring in one of the bevy of youngarms they have stockpiled and still contend.

The Nationalscontention window will open with the beginning of spring training and lookslike it could be a five-year window. For now, the team will need an influx ofoutside veteran talent to win before ultimately letting the maturing youngsterslead them through those outlying years.

No question, though:it’s going to be a fun ride over the next few years. And goodness knows, afterthe last seven seasons, we’ve earned it.

Bryce Harper IS The Outfielder That GM Mike Rizzo Is Looking For

2011-11-19T17:53:00.001-07:00

Over the next six weeks, Washington Nationals team General Manager Mike Rizzo will burn up the phone lines at Nationals Park as he searches for the one or two remaining pieces that will transform the once moribund franchise into—this seems almost sacrilege to say—a true pennant contender.

Roy Oswalt Tops Mike Rizzo's List For FA Pitchers

As his team rocketed through September and finished the season on a 15-5 tear, Rizzo told reporters that his team was one starting pitcher and a center fielder away from joining the elite of the National League East.

Many free agent pitchers have been mentioned as possibilities for the Nationals rotation, including Mark Buerle (13-9, 3.59), Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69) and C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94).

And though the Nationals have three stalwart prospects to fill that last spot in the rotation, Tommy Milone (1-0, 3.81), Brad Peacock (2-0, 0.75) and Ross Detwiler (4-5, 3.00) have yet to pitch a meaningful September game in their young careers.

Though their potential is undeniable, their lack of experience could be deadly to a potential pennant chase. The Nationals need a veteran quality starter to help calm the inevitable summer storms.

But the need for a center fielder is another matter entirely.

Heading into spring training, Michael Morse is a lock in left. After filling in at first when Adam LaRoche was lost for the year in mid May, the 29-year-old returns to his natural position after blossoming at the plate. Morse was perhaps the surprise of the National League last year, hitting .303-31-95 in his first season as a full-time player.

Jayson Werth is penciled in as the team’s right fielder. Werth’s first year in Washington was perhaps the team’s worst individual effort since Cristian Guzman back in 2005. In 150 games, the 32-year-old hit just .232-20-58.

But there is little doubt that Werth’s horrid season is likely not to be repeated in 2012. In his last three seasons with the Phillies, Werth averaged .279-29-84 with a solid .376 on-base percentage.

Chalk up last year to a combination of “just one of those years” and trying too hard to justify his $126 million contract.

That said, playing in that Philadelphia bandbox certainly puffed up his home run stats. From 2008 through 2010, Werth hit 50 homers at home and just 37 on the road.

The combination of a rebound year in 2012 along with the more spacious home ballpark should mean that Werth will give the Nationals a good-but-not-great season, something along the lines of .270-20-75.

That leaves the hole in center and a myriad of players to fill it. Grady Sizemore, who was non-tendered by the Indians following three injury-plagued seasons, seems the most logical choice of the group, though how much interest the team has for him at this point isn’t known.

Sizemore May Resign With Indians

Sizemore, a former member of the organization, averaged just .234-9-36 over the last three after hitting .279-28-81 from 2006-2008. Sizemore is seeking a one-year contract to prove his health as well as his worth.

And after his one year in center, he would move on to greener pastures, giving up his spot to that remarkable phenom currently percolating in the minors, Bryce Harper.

But as badly as the team wants to bring along the 19-year-old along slowly and cautiously, he seems to be proving at every stop along the way that he’s ready to face major league pitching right now.

Harper, the top overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft in 2010, graduated from high school two years early and played in an advanced junior college league that used wood bats.

Hitting against 19-year-old pitchers in what should have been his junior year of high school, Harper was unstoppable, batting .442-29-89 in just 215 at-bats. That works out to 72 homers and 222 RBI over a 162-game season. Wow.

Harper’s first taste of professional baseball came in the Nationals’ Florida Instructional League following the 2010 season. He Batted .319 with a .407 on-base percentage and led his team in hits, home runs and runs batted in.

Though he originally was not ticketed to play in the highly touted Arizona Fall League that fall, Harper’s outstanding effort earned a spot on his team’s taxi squad, which limited his play to a couple of starts a week.

That said, the second-youngest player ever to participate in the AFL batted .343 with a .629 slugging percent in limited play.

Harper earned some significant playing time during the 2011 spring training, playing in 13 early games and he responded by hitting .389 with a .450 on-base percentage and a 1.006 OPS.

Like at virtually every other stop he’d made as a professional, Harper started slowly in the Low-A South Atlantic League as a member of the Hagerstown Suns this spring. But like virtually every stop he’s made, Harper then got hot and for six weeks, he was the hottest hitter in the league, perhaps in all of baseball. And then, like at virtually every stop he’s made, he plateaued and continued to be a very good player for the remainder of the season.

Bryce Harper

After 72 games, Harper had batted .318/.423/.554 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI and was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg. It was there that his cycle of slow starts and hot streaks ended. Oh, the slow start happened, but just as he began to heat up, injury ended his season.

In 129 at-bats, Harper hit .256/.329/.395 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI for the Senators.

There was some concern that the semi-struggle at Harrisburg was more the product of his being pushed too far too quickly within the Nationals’ system, but those fears were allayed over the past month in the hot desert sun in Arizona.

Playing against the top prospects across major league baseball, Harper batted .333/.400/.634 with six home runs and 26 RBI. Adjusted to a full major league season, those numbers would be .333-36-156 with 24 stolen bases.

And, oh yeah, he started slowly, then destroyed opposition pitching for three weeks, then plateaued and played solid baseball through the season’s end.

Now, I agree that it is difficult look at all of those teams and accompanying stats and be able to tell just how well he did. So let’s add up every swing, punch-out and home run he’s produced from that first day of spring training through the final out of the just completed Arizona Fall League season.

It pretty much adds up to a full major league season and gives a fairly good indication of the type of player Bryce Harper is:

Slash Line: .307/.398/.535

At-Bats: 498

Runs: 83

Doubles: 32

Triples: 4

Home Runs: 23

Runs Batted In: 84

Stolen Bases: 31/38 (81.5%)

Walks: 73

Strikeouts: 111

That’s outstanding on a number of levels.

In the Low-A South Atlantic League, Harper was 18 playing against pitchers four years older than him. In the Double-A Eastern League, the median age is 25; some of those guys were in their eighth professional season while Harper should have been a senior in high school.

If he was able to put up all-star numbers when he was in essence the little brother trying to hit against all the neighborhood big brothers, how might he fare against players of his own age and experience level?

I don’t think we’ll ever know the answer to that because it’s not going to happen, because when the Nationals break camp and go north next spring, Bryce Harper needs to go with them.

It is a near certainty that whoever the Nationals are going to sign to play center, he will be gone by the end of the year, opening the door for Harper to begin playing every day in 2013.

But he’s ready now, and so that stop-gap center fielder just isn’t necessary.

The most important part of a young player’s game is the ability to adjust, and Harper’s continuous cycle of slow starts followed by blazing hot streaks is just that, Harper getting overmatched and then adjusting to how he’s being pitched.

There is no reason to believe that won’t happen at the major league level too. I have little doubt that Harper’s first couple of months would be beset by strikeouts and prolonged slumps. But in time, he would make the necessary adjustments and provide enough offense for the Nationals to make a real run at the post season.

Some worry that a bad start might harm Harper’s confidence in himself. But one thing that Harper doesn’t lack is confidence. And bad starts don’t end a player’s season before it starts. After 30 games last year, Michael Morse was hitting just .211/.253/.268 with a home run and just nine RBI, and his season ended quite nicely.

Jayson Werth’s first 30 games were almost as bad, and though he didn’t totally climb out of the hole he had dug for himself, he came close.

So there is no reason to believe that Harper couldn’t do the same, especially when he has a nice track record of doing just that.

And history suggests that Harper can make the jump to the majors this year.

Back in 1989, there was a 19-year-old phenom who many compare today to Bryce Harper. His name was Ken Griffey Jr. In his first few weeks as a major leaguer, he struggled mightily, hitting just .189/.246/.340 through early May.

But he made adjustments, learned from his mistakes, and by the end of the year hit .264-16-61 and finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting.

I suspect that Harper’s first-year stats would closely mirror those of Griffey, giving the team’s outfield more than enough offensive production to make a real run at the post season.

An outfield of Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper could produce 70 home runs and 250 RBI in 2012. That compares favorably to the New York Yankees outfield trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher who combined to hit 71 home runs and drive in 240 RBI last year.

Starting Bryce Harper on Opening Day, does, however, have its drawbacks. His arbitration and free agency clocks would begin sooner, costing the team certainly more money and possibly the loss of Harper to free agency at an earlier date.

But in the here and now, none of that really matters. The Washington Nationals are finally in a position to win next year, thanks to equal parts of better players, the softening of the competition, and the possibility of a second wildcard spot in the playoffs.

In baseball, windows of opportunity open and close all too quickly and every chance to win needs to be grasped. For the Nationals, Grady Sizemore or Coco Crisp wouldn’t provide any better chance to win next year than Bryce Harper.

That being the case, it makes more sense to start Harper in right, move Werth to center, and leave Morse in left. Sure, there is a chance that Harper’s first year in the majors may be a bit substandard, but there is enough talent on the roster to make up for any short-term difficulties he may face.

And there is no question that Bryce Harper circa 2013 would be a far better player having a year of major league experience under his belt rather than another season in the minors.

While the Nationals can contend next year, 2013 will likely be the Nationals’ “big” year. The imperfections in the games of Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos and Ian Desmond will likely be gone with another year of experience. So it’s better to make

Nationals Could Have Strong Left Field Platoon if Team Resigns Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes in 2012

2011-07-28T13:56:00.000-06:00

Jonny Gomes

The Washington Nationals acquired outfielder Jonny Gomes on Monday, a move that had most of the Nats' Nation scratching their collective heads.

He's not young, and he's not an everyday player. He's also due to be a free agent at the end of the year. One of the "advantages" of this deal, or so says General Manager Mike Rizzo, is that he is projected to be a "Type B" free agent, which means the Nationals will gain a compensatory pick in next year's draft if they don't sign him.

Well, sure, but the team gave up two prospects to get him. I'm not sure I see the advantage in trading two prospects to get one.

I would much rather keep the 30-year-old Gomes and let him platoon with his former teammate and friend Laynce Nix in left field. Gomes doesn't hit right-hander's well, batting only .226/.308/.429 over his career while Nix is only .179/.230/.270 against lefties.

But take a look how the two of them would have produced in a platoon in 2011, using this year's production statistics as a guide. Typically, the left-hander in a platoon gets 450 at-bats in a season while the right-hander amasses about 150. Take a look:

Nix: .287/.323/.537, 28 HR, 72 RBI

Gomes: .333/.439/.537, 9 HR, 33 RBI

Nix and Gomes, then, would have combined to hit .293 with 37 home runs and 105 RBI.

Laynce Nix

The two players would give the Nationals some above-average pop in left while providing good-enough defense. And the player not starting would be a quality bat off the bench.

Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes would keep left field warm for as long as the Nationals need before Bryce Harper is ready to take over, say sometime late in 2012 or early in 2013. Something tells me, however, that the team won't be keen on resigning either of them this off-season.

But here's hoping .....

Stephen Lombardozzi is Nationals' Answer At Leadoff And Second Base

2011-07-01T23:20:00.000-06:00

Stephen Lombardozzi Playing for (AA) Harrisburg

While there are many question marks that need addressing before an average Washington Nationals' team becomes a good one, most believe that their middle infield--Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond--is rock solid and immovable. Whatever trades may come and go, they will be left untouched.

And Espinosa certainly isn't going anywhere. The 24-year-old rookie from Long Beach State is on pace to hit 30 home runs and drive in more than 100 runs. And he might already be the best fielding second baseman in the National League.

And though shortstop Ian Desmond has started slowly at the plate, his defense is now always solid and at times sparkling. Most believe he will be a career .275 hitter with some pop and a lot of steals.

They are a great double-play combination, both young with a high upside, and yet I highly doubt that either of them will be playing their positions for Washington next year.

The Nationals, you see, are in dire need of a leadoff hitter. They have tried Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel, Espinosa--even Jayson Werth--at the top of the lineup with no success. And while Desmond may be the long-term answer at short, others are far less certain.

Ian Desmond's Days May Be Numbered

But playing at Triple-A Syracuse right now is a player who could bring stability, both to the top of the lineup and the middle of the infield.

His name is Stephen Lombardozzi.

The 22-year-old second baseman and Maryland native was taken in the 19th round of the 2008 amateur draft, and the son of former major league infielder Steve Lombardozzi has rocketed through the farm system in short order.

In four years, he has made stops in the Florida Gulf Coast League, Class-A Hagerstown, Double-A Harrisburg and was recently promoted to Triple-A Syracuse. In 1500 at-bats, the right-hander has hit .300/.374/.414, averaging 26 doubles and 24 steals per season.

After batting .309 with the Double-A Senators this season, he has rocked the International League to the tune of .413/.421/.468 in 49 at-bats.

Defensively, he is every bit as good as Espinosa. His career .985 fielding mark is outstanding and about the same as Espinosa's.

He's ready for the major leagues now.

So, what to do?

Lombardozzi & Jason Marquis Would Make a Great Pkg.

If the Nationals keep their team intact--perhaps call up a player or two from the minors--the team has a real chance of winning 75-80 games, manna from Heaven for long suffering Nationals' fans.

However, if they sell of some short-term parts, players like Ivan Rodriguez, Joey Cora and/or Jerry Hairston, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez and perhaps Todd Coffey, they may only win 70-73 games in 2011 but could wind up with an additional two or three Wilson Ramos-types that they received in trades.

If any of these trades occur, I feel certain that Espinosa would move back to his natural position of shortstop and Lombardozzi would take over at second. Desmond could be used in a trade package to a contender along with, say, Marquis or Livan, the type of trade that would certainly bring someone like Ramos--perhaps more than one--in return.

If the Nationals' offense was even just average this year, the team would be in a true pennant chase for the first time in six seasons. But they have the pieces already in place to resuscitate the bats for 2012. Here is my projected lineup for next year with my projected offensive statistics:

1--Lombardozzi (2B) .275-4-40, 25 steals

2--Werth (RF) .280-22-75, 20 steals

3--Zimmermann (3B) .290-27-90

4--Morse (LF) .280-25-90

5--LaRoche (1B).270-20-70

6--Espinosa (SS) .250-25-80

7--Bernadina (CF) .265-10-50, 25 steals

8--Ramos (C) .250-15-55

This of course assumes the return of LaRoche, but he is such a good fielder (and good enough hitter) that he needs to return in 2012. I am also unsure about Bernadina/center field. There might be a change there.

The first three spots in the rotation are likely already set. Both Strasburg and Zimmermann are capable of winning 15 games with an ERA near 3.00. John Lannan continues to show he's capable of being a pitcher who can throw 200 innings with an ERA between 3.80 and 4.00.

Tom Milone Could Be A Solid Starter By 2012

The last two spots could be filled through trade, free agent signing, or the promotion of one of several promising minor leaguer's, someone like Tom Milone, Ross Detwiler, Brad Meyers or Brad Peacock.

The bullpen, through current roster players (majors and minors) is set.

The addition of two more quality players, a starter and a center fielder, and this is a 90-win team capable of at least contending in 2012.

And man, am I excited.the 2008 amateur draft,

Tom Milone: Picture John Lannan Only Better

2011-06-17T13:07:00.000-06:00

Tom Milone With Double-A Harrisburg In 2010

Tom Milone took the mound for the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs a few nights ago and the crafty left-hander (crafty is the term used for lefties who can’t throw a fastball much faster than 90 mph) threw eight shutout innings, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out nine.

Who is this guy that most Nationals’ fans have never heard of before? Think John Lannan but with a little better control.

I have enjoyed watching Lannan pitch the last three years, partly because he’s good, but also because I love it when underdogs succeed at the major league level.

An 11th-round pick in 2005 out of Siena College (17-5, 3.86), Lannan was considered to be no more than another organizational arm who might one day become a lefty specialist out of the pen.

In his first two seasons (Vermont and Single-A Savannah), that is how he pitched.

In 35 starts, Lannan was just 9-13 with a 4.89 ERA. In 2007, he blossomed and cut his hits per nine innings in half, and began hitting his spots.

In the span of just a couple of months, he was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg, then Triple-A Columbus and finally to the major leagues, where he started six games for Washington.

He finished the season with a record of 12-3, 2.31 ERA, and a slash line of 6.6/3.0/5.3 (hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings).

Lannan’s career 32-43 record and 4.02 ERA with the Nationals is deceiving.

Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum had 26 quality starts two seasons ago, and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee had 23.

Milone As A Potomac National in 2009

Lannan had 21.

In other words, he’s still young, still learning and he still gets clobbered when he doesn’t spot his pitches well.

Last season—probably due to a nagging arm injury—Lannan was horrible in the first half of the season, going 3-6, 5.76 before being sent down to Double-A Harrisburg in June. When he returned, however, he was his old self.

In 10 starts after being recalled, Lannan was 5-2, 3.42. Seven of those were "quality starts."

With a bit more luck and a little more offensive support, Lannan could win a dozen or so games each year for the next decade. He’s an ideal No. 5 starter.

In two starts this year, he’s pitched 10 innings, allowing 12 hits and three walks while striking out seven. Lannan’s ERA is 3.60.

Milone, like Lannan, is a lanky lefty who must pitch to spots to be successful.

He is eighth all-time in games started for Southern Cal.

In 2007, he was named Pitcher of the Year in the prestigious Cape Cod League with a record of 6-1 and a 2.92 ERA. He struck out 46 and walked just seven in 52 innings.

His next summer was spent in Wenatchee, Wash., pitching in a West Coast summer league. In 51 innings, Milone went 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA.

Against some of the best college hitters, Milone combined to go 12-2 (2.81 ERA) while striking out 101 in 103 innings. He walked just 13.

But a lack of a dominating fastball, and a so-so 16-17 career record with a 4.78 ERA at Southern Cal, relegated Milone to a 10th-round afterthought in the 2008 amateur draft.

John Lannan With Potomac

Though major league scouts didn’t think much of his ability, Milone was confident that he would succeed.

Pitching for Vermont and Hagerstown that first year, Milone crafted a record of 1-6 but with a solid 3.51 ERA. He allowed 10.3 hits per nine innings but just 1.3 walks.

Nationals’ scouts saw enough to promote him to High-A Potomac for the 2009 season. And just like Lannan two seasons earlier, Milone blossomed.

After watching him pitch in a bullpen session early in the year, Potomac pitching coach Paul Menhart approached Milone about adding a cut fastball to his repertoire.

Pitching to contact is fine, he said, but disguising his 87 mph fastball would help him greatly.

Milone’s cutter looks like his fastball but dives at the last second. Against right-handers, it first dives in, then away as it crosses the plate.

His ERA was 3.89 when he began to throw his new pitch in early July.

By the end of the year it had dropped to 2.91, best on the team. His batting-average against, .275 the season before, was just .252 with Potomac.

Milone’s fastball tops out at 87 mph, but usually sits in the 84-86 mph range. His curveball is sharp and about 10 mph slower than his fastball, providing good separation.

His changeup, though, is by far his best pitch; one he can throw wherever he wants and at any point in the count.

His control is remarkable. Over his minor league career, Milone has walked just 68 while striking out 310, more than a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Milone has trouble when he’s not hitting his spots. When facing a walk, he tends to throw his fastball down the middle of the plate, a bad place for a slow fastball.

But that is a peril that all contact pitchers face. If you don’t have an “out” pitch, there just aren’t many safe pitches to throw.

Overall, Milone’s minor league numbers are similar to—and in some cases much better than— Lannan’s. Both players have started exactly 62 minor league games:

Record

Lannan: 22-20 (.524)

Milone: 29-20 (.610)

ERA

Lannan: 3.95

Milone: 3.08

Opponent’s Batting Average

Lannan: .258

Milone: .255

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine-Innings

Lannan: 8.9/3.4/6.3

Milone: 9.0/1.5/7.6

No, that's not a misprint. In 62 games he has allowed just 1.5 walks per nine-innings. To give that number some context, Stephen Strasburg, who in considered be one of the best control pitchers ever, allowed 2.1 walks per nine innings in his time with Double-A Harrisburg last year.

No, Milone is not Strasburg but he has Strasburg control.

One would think that Milone might have a major league career similar to Lannan, that of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starter who can be counted on to win 10 to 14 games a year.

Sure, Milone is not on any watch list and isn’t considered much of a prospect. But Lannan didn’t show up as a true prospect until the 2008 season, after he had already pitched in the major leagues.

Milone has a prospect grade of “C” and is lumped together with a bevy of other non-prospect types like Taylor Jordan, Nathan Karns and Pat Lehman.

I am in no way suggesting that Milone is going to repeat the success of Lannan.

But he has similar tools, has even better control, and at 23, is mowing down older and more experienced opponents in the Eastern League.

Lannan was also 23 when he pitched for Harrisburg.

Yes, it seems unlikely that a 10th-rounder will eventually make the Nationals’ starting rotation, especially when you consider that the Nationals will have a solid rotation when all of the team’s walking-wounded return to the major league roster.

But isn’t that the same thing we all said about Lannan, the 11th-round selection from Siena College?

He’ll pitch for Triple-A Syracuse this year and will be just a phone call away from the major leagues.

Suddenly, the Nationals have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young pitchers, and it’s about time. The 2011 season is looking better and better with each passing day.

With Adam La Roche Out For The Year, Who Is Nationals' Long-Term Answer At First Base?

2011-06-15T11:43:00.000-06:00

Adam La Roche

Now that Adam La Roche is "officially" out for the year, you have to wonder how his loss is going to effect the team beyond the last 100 or so games remaining in 2011.

La Roche will likely be 100-percent healthy by next spring and if given the opportunity will provide the Nationals the semi-big bat that they expected this season.

Over his six full seasons in the major leagues (2005-2010), La Roche has averaged .271/.340/.488 with 28 homers and 97 RBI over a full 162 game season, never missing any significant time due to injuries. There is no reason to believe that he won't return from shoulder surgery and hit .275-20-80 while playing flawless defense.

But do the Nationals want to do that? I doubt that the team will keep him beyond his current contract which expires at the end of the 2012 season. But if not La Roche, who then is the Nationals long-term solution at first base?

Well, it could be Michael Morse, who took over for La Roche earlier this year. In his first four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Morse batted .300/.365/.397 with just 3 homers and 37 RBI in 300 at-bats. But since coming to Washington in 2009, the 29-year-old has hit .290/.344/.515 with 28 home runs and 88 RBI in 503 at-bats.

Michael Morse Sans Beard

This season, he is on pace to hit .290-30-104 while playing flawless defense at first. I keep saying that he's no Adam La Roche, but thus far he's been just that.

The Nationals also have two pretty solid prospects who could take over for La Roche in 2013, Chris Marrero at Triple-A Syracuse and Tyler Moore of Double-A Harrisburg.

The 22-year-old Marrero is a former first-round pick who former General Manager Jim Bowden chose for his bat. Now in his sixth minor league season, Marrero has averaged .282-20-85 per season and is on pace to bat .290-20-83 for the Chiefs this season.

The problem has always been his glove. Drafted as a third baseman the year after the Nationals took Ryan Zimmerman, he was moved to the outfield and quickly failed there. From 2008-2010, he played exclusively at first base and averaged 20 errors per season. But his defense looked vastly improved this past spring and in 61 games this year Marrero has committed just two miscues.

Several coaches have publicly said that Marrero's glove is now ready for the major leagues.

Moore, at 24 is two years older than Marrero (Marrero was drafted directly out of high school) and wasn't considered much of a prospect until last season when he launched 31 homers and drove in 111 runs for Class-A Potomac. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg and is currently on pace to hit .273-26-80 for the Senators.

Defensively, he's always been good enough but not particularly great. he's averaged 10 errors per season and has a career .990 fielding mark (La Roche, considered one of baseball's best defenders, has a career .994 fielding percent).

So, what to do?

Assuming that he stays healthy, La Roche brings a stellar glove and power bat to the Nationals. Forget 2011; he is Mr. Reliability. Wind him up and he'll hit .275-20-80, certainly enough production when considering the runs he saves in field.

Morse has now proven he is an everyday major leaguer. He plays acceptable defense in left and seems above-average at first. He's 29 and looks to be able to provide 25-30 homers a year for the next four or five seasons for the Nationals. He could play in left field just as easily as at first.

Chris Marrero

And now Marrero's glove is as major-league ready as his bat. No, he'll never be a star, but he could become a quality complementary piece that all champion caliber teams need to be successful.

Tyler Moore could be the best pure power hitter among the group. Over the past two years, he's averaged a home run every 17 at-bats. Over a 550 at-bat season, that works out to 33 home runs (Marrero has averaged a homer every 26 at-bats, or about 21 homers over a full major league season).

I think the wild card in all of this is Bryce Harper. If all goes as planned, Harper will make it to the major leagues sometime next year, probably near the half-way point of the season. But when he gets here, where will he play? I don't think he's ready to be an everyday center-fielder, which means he will probably take over in left (I doubt a 19-year-old is going to supplant Jayson Werth in right).

So here's how the dominoes will fall:

Morse will remain at first for the rest of this season. Laynce Nix will be the team's left-fielder against righties and is on pace to hit .296-22-64 this year. This off season, the Nationals trade for a real center fielder who can succeed at the top of the order, perhaps using Nix as part of the package.

Adam La Roche returns in 2012 and becomes the team's first baseman with Morse returning to left. When Harper finally makes it to Washington, the contending teams will begin looking to add veteran players for their pennant chases, players like Adam La Roche.

Tyler Moore With Mississippi State

The Nationals trade La Roche, move Morse back to first, and Harper takes over in left. Werth remains in right and center is covered by the player they traded for, the guy that probably cost them a pitching prospect or a back-end-of-the-rotation major leaguer (or both), either Moore or Marrero and one more player, maybe Roger Bernadina or Nix.

With Stephen Strasburg back in the rotation and Bryce Harper in the outfield, the difference between just "another" season in 2012 and a special one could be that guy who ends up leading off and playing center.

Hopefully, they find the right guy.

Projecting Bryce Harper

2011-06-11T10:15:00.000-06:00

Nestled around a slow start and a short slump this year, Bryce Harper is producing the kind of season befitting baseball's premier minor leaguer.

His high school graduating class received their diplomas about the same time that Harper crushed a 480-foot home run a few days back.

Instead of kissing his high school sweetheart at the prom, he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher.

One day soon--probably after he plays in the South Atlantic League All Star game--Harper will be promoted, likely bypassing High-A Potomac and their bad playing field and landing at Double-A Harrisburg, where he will play against baseball's best prospects.

My guess is that he'll reach Washington sometime next season, just after the Nationals have gained all the leverage they can with his potential arbitration and free agent status. And their he'll stay until the riches of a Scott Boras free agency come calling.

But how good has he been thus far in 2011? His offensive statistics, projected over a full season look like this:

AB: 506--Runs: 98--Hits: 172--Doubles: 33--Triples: 2--Home Runs: 33--RBI: 103--Steals: 30--Walks: 80--Strikeouts: 122. Add to this a .341 batting average, .433 on-base percent and .607 slugging mark and it seems remarkable that he hasn't yet been promoted.

And if based on a major league 162 game season, he'd be on his way to hitting .341-38-117 with 30 stolen bases.

Harper will likely settle in to center field this time next year and will bring another potent bat to the Nationals' lineup. A middle-of-the-lineup that features Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse, Bryan Harper and (possibly) Adam LaRoche will have little trouble scoring runs.

Add a (hopefully) healthy Anthony Rendon and this truly can be a team that contends in 2012.

Stephen Strasburg's Former Catcher Promoted To Potomac

2011-05-05T14:28:00.000-06:00

Selik In Junior College

That a player was promoted from Low-A Hagerstown to High-A Potomac this early in the season is a surprise to no one.

That it wasn't Bryce Harper is.

Twenty-three-year-old Cameron Selik, the Nationals' 22nd round pick in last year's amateur draft, is now with the Potomac Nationals of the Carolina League and should make his first start with the team sometime this weekend.

The San Diego native had a good-but-not great career with the University of Kansas, and began his professional career last summer as a reliever for the short-season Vermont Lake Monsters. In 28 innings, he went 1-0 with a 2.54 ERA, striking out 10.2 per nine-innings while walking 4.1.

He moved into Hagerstown's rotation this year and dominated, going 3-0 in five starts with a minuscule 0.31 ERA (best in all of minor league baseball), striking out 9.3 per nine-innings and dropping his walk rate from 4.1 last year to 0.9 this season. His strikeout-to-walk ration last year was an above average 2.4:1. This year it's 10:1.

John Sickels said that the 6'3," 240 pounder is a "strong legs" type of pitcher with a decent fastball that tops out at 92 mph and breaking ball with a "nasty" bite to it.

Starting For The Kansas Jayhawks

A few weeks after Sickels' scouting report was published, Selik hit 95 mph a couple of times in a start against Baylor and he seems finally over his Tommy John Surgery from three years ago.

He grew up catching Stephen Strasburg and started his pitching career in junior college as a member of the rotation as well as being one of the team's closers.

MASN's Byron Kerr talked to Suns' play-by-play announcer Bryan Holland who said that "He has a devastating slider that slips low and away. Cameron also has a great differential in speed between his fastball, slider, and changeup. This makes him virtually unhittable when the batter has two strikes on him."

It would seem that Selik has joined the cabal of Nationals' minor league pitchers on the fast track to the major leagues, but a 23-year-old pitcher in the South Atlantic League should dominate the competition.

Let's see what happens in Potomac this summer before jumping to any conclusions about his future.

South Atlantic League Pitching Can't Contain Bryce Harper

2011-05-03T13:43:00.001-06:00

No matter what happens, Bryce Harper won't be playing baseball for the Washington Nationals in 2011.

That was the guarantee that came from pretty much every one within the organization.

Too much pressure on the kid, they said.

And a couple of weeks ago, they seemed to be clairvoyant. The kid with his own Sports Illustrated cover was batting .235 and hat just one home run. Since then, though, Harper is proving to be every bit the player we all thought he'd be.

In 32 at-bats since April 21st, Harper is batting .500 with six doubles and five home runs. He's driven in 14 runs. He slugging at a 1.156 clip and his on-base percent is .600.

He's now on pace for a record-setting season that would look like this:

At-bats: 569

Runs: 120

Doubles: 60

Triples: 0

Home runs: 45

RBI: 150

Stolen Bases: 30

Batting Average: 358

On-Base Percent: .600

Slugging Percent: .697

OPS: 1.153

He's on track to walk 105 times while striking out 150. However, since mid April, he's walking more and striking out less, so those numbers will likely look a great deal different by September.

I wouldn't count on the Class-A South Atlantic League pitchers figuring him out anytime soon. They were getting him out easily during the season's first couple of weeks until Harper made an adjustment.

Harper is obviously dominating Sally League pitching. The question is how long the Nationals will let him remain before he is promoted to High-A Potomac. Right now, game time is little more than enhanced batting practice for the Las Vegas native and isn't helping his development.

Currently, Harper is ninth in the league in batting, third in doubles, home runs and RBI, sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percent. What makes his production even more impressive is his age. Catcher Chris Wallace has similar numbers (.384-7-24) to Harper but is 23. John Massanari (.388-7-23) is 25. Matt Curry (.375-4-19) is 24.

Bryce Harper is 18 years old and in his first professional season.

The team is probably beginning to firm up the date when Harper will be promoted to High-A Potomac, and there is little doubt he'll finish the 2011 season at Double-A Harrisburg. Another good spring (remember, he batted .389/.450/.889 this year in Viera) and he could very well find himself as the team's starting center fielder this time next year.

This is a team that could make the jump from bad to good very quickly. With Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg on the team in 2012, just about anything is possible.

Marquis Mania in Washington

2011-04-29T23:03:00.000-06:00

This time last year, Jason Marquis--one of the biggest names to sign with the Washington Nationals in the days before Jason Werth-- had started three games and lost all of them, limping into the clubhouse after that last one with a 20.52 ERA.

It was obvious that for the first time something was very wrong with his precious right arm. In 12 major league seasons, the 31-year-old had averaged 12 wins per season with a 4.54 ERA. Now, just a season removed from being an All Star, he was the worst starter on a bad team.

Eventually, bone chips were found and surgery was performed. He rejoined the team in August and went 2-6 with a solid 4.29 ERA. Marquis continued that good pitching into 2011; after Friday night's complete game win against the San Francisco Giants, he is now 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA, striking out 6.6 batters per nine-innings while walking just 1.8.

He is tough, he is a competitor, and last year was the first of his career that he didn't play in the post season.

He's a winner.

Many within the organization were hoping that he'd be healthy enough to trade sometime this summer for a prospect or two. He is, after all, in the final year of his two-year contract. But really, trading Marquis makes no sense at all.

The Nationals are expected to begin the 2012 season with a rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and John Lannan. The fifth spot could easily be filled by Livan Hernandez or one of the young-but-ready kids working their way up the system.

But Marquis should be that man. He's mature, he wants to win and his past record tells a story of a winner. The rotation needs a veteran presence, a guy who runs the clubhouse who can also still win half of his games.

And that's Jason Marquis.

Before the Washington Nationals can be great, they have to be steady. And to be steady, they must have a pitcher who can be effective every fifth day, someone who can protect the team and give them a chance to win each game he pitches.

Jason Marquis is worth his contract dollars, finally. But to make those millions worthwhile, the Nationals need to extend him for two more years.

And give the rotation's children a chance to grow up.

Bryce Harper Looking Better Every Day

2011-04-29T14:48:00.000-06:00

After a slow start, Hagerstown's Bryce Harper is on a tear. In 62 at-bats, the 19-year-old is batting .323-5-18 for the Class-A Suns.

But take a look at what he's done expanded to 550 at-bats, a typical major league season:

Runs: 126

Hits: 180

Doubles: 45

Triples: 0

Home Runs: 45

RBI: 162

Stolen Bases: 36

Walks: 100

Strikeouts: 153

On-Base Percent: .425

Slugging Percent: .645

Ten days ago, he was hitting .235. Today, he's pretty much got the South Atlantic League pitchers figured out. Left there for the entire season, my guess is he'd hit somewhere around .325-30-110 with 30 steals. But I think the Nationals will want to challenge him again, possibly moving him up to High-A Potomac in July.

One thing's for sure though: he's every bit the player we thought he'd be.

Recent Losses Harder Because They've Become Less Expected

2011-04-28T12:11:00.000-06:00

Sometimes, being a fan of the Washington Nationals can be very troubling.

Daniel Rosenbaum -- Pitcher

Seven seasons ago they marched into the All Star break in first place in the National League East with a record of 50-31. They added Preston Wilson and Devi Cruz for the pennant run and seemed ready to continue the magic all the way to the World Series.

Buster Onley was even asked at the All Star break if the Nationals could win the division. “Sure, why not!” was his reply.

The Nationals returned after the All Star break confident and ready. But since then, Washington has gone 361-529, winning barely forty-percent of their games.

And yet throughout all this losing, all the embarrassment, all the jokes and all the refusal of so many quality players to come to Washington, the losses that are beginning to pile up now have been the hardest.

Because they are so close to being so good.

It’s one thing when the team loses 100 games and a quick glance at the rosters of the top two or three minor league teams verifies that there is no help on the way. But that’s not the case now. A quick count finds at least 20 players currently with Triple-A Syracuse and Double-A Harrisburg who will in the next couple of years don a Nationals uniform.

Some will be starters, one or two an all star, and many will fill support roles. But they’ll be here.

For years, the team had to hope that the few minor league players who were supposed to blossom did. Now, players who weren’t being counted on are stepping up.

After a couple of years derailed by injuries, Brad Meyers is 3-1 for Harrisburg with a 2.95 ERA. In 21 innings, he’s struck out 27 and walked no one. Brad Peacock, also with Harrisburg, is 2-1, 1.59, though his control isn’t quite as good as Meyers. In 17 innings, he’s struck out 21 and walked two.

No, the minor leagues aren’t loaded, but they are producing. By 2013, and with a little luck, it could produce an entire roster of capable major league players.

They’re t-h-a-t close.

Tyler Moore -- 1B

And the major league roster keeps showing flashes of brilliance that last a game or two before it returns to the ooze and muck of mediocrity.

The Nationals early season record is about where most of us thought they’d be, though things aren’t boding well for the rest of the season. They reached two games over .500 because an overachieving pitching staff made up for a lackluster offense.

But now—with the exception of Tom Gorzelanny last night—the starters are struggling right alongside the hitters.

No offense. No pitching. No hope?

No way.

These losses are difficult because we all know that hope is coming. Stephen Strasburg will be back by next season and Bryce Harper should be the every-day center fielder by 2013. One or two of those young pitching prospects (Tom Milone, Brad Meyers, Daniel Rosenbaum, etc.) will further embolden the starting rotation.

And really, other than left field and first, the Nationals’ starting eight is pretty much set once Harper makes it to Washington.

It’s because the future looks much brighter that these losses are harder to take. At some point, the Nationals will start winning games regularly and leave this nightmare behind. I mean, you start Stephen Strasburg and have Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos fill the middle of your lineup.

What’s not to like?

So, for now, the losses will hurt a little more because they are less expected. But in the end, the team will likely win 75 or so games this year (I mean, the offense has to warm up eventually) and another Jayson Werth type of free agency signing over the winter should produce a team on the periphery of contention.

It has to happen sooner or later. Really.

Atilano And Martis: Great MLB Starts Quickly Turned Sour

2011-02-16T16:05:00.000-07:00

Three weeks ago, the Nationals designated-for-assignment pitcher Shairon Martis, who ultimately cleared waivers and was signed to a minor league contract. He'll start the season with the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs.

Yesterday, the team designated Luis Atilano for assignment. If no one claims him on waivers, he'll likely be a teammate of Martis' in Syracuse.

There is no question that both players are little more than what General Manager Mike Rizzo likes to call "inventory," players with no real major league future but who gives the team depth in case something happens.

Like when Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg get shelved for a year because of Tommy John surgery.

I would imagine that both players will play again in the major leagues though they'll likely fill the last spot on the roster if they do. And somewhere else. Not here.

In 2009, Martis earned the final spot in the Nationals' rotation in Spring Training. Martis, who threw a no-hitter against Panama in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, started strongly for Washington.

In his first nine games, he had a record of 5-2 with a 4.01 ERA and a .254 batting average-against. In his last seven games before returning to the minors, though, he was just 0-3 with a 6.34 ERA.

Atilano was also 5-2 in his first nine starts with an even lower 4.11 ERA and .258 batting average-against. But over his last eight games before injury/ineffectiveness/demotion took their toll, he went 1-5, 6.49.

Atilano lost effectiveness because too many players were getting base hits. His three walks a game--though a little high--were acceptable for a rookie. His .306 batting average-against, though, was not.

Martis' problems were just the opposite. His batting average-against was just .254 but he couldn't get the ball over the plate. He walked 4.4 batters per nine innings.

But mostly, major league hitters figured them out. If you don't have a 95 mph fastball, you have to rely on trickery to get hitters out. And if you don't trick them, you get drilled.

With Mike Rizzo's preference for power pitchers, I doubt we'll ever see either pitcher back with the Nationals. And that shows you how far the team has come.

If Nationals Can't Sign Any More "Big Names," 2011 Should Be Used To Prepare For Contention in 2012

2010-12-29T18:22:00.000-07:00

Adam LaRoche: He Just Won't Sign

It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

Chris Marrero Just Can't Field

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal leadoff hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.

Milone: Could Be Much Better Than John Lannan

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

Kimball: Brooklyn Tenacity to DC

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

ZACK GREINKE COULD BE ANOTHER FELIPE LOPEZ FOR BREWERS AND THAT AINT GOOD

2010-12-24T16:44:00.000-07:00

Zack Greinke got his “Welcome to Milwaukee” press conference yesterday and he seemed genuinely happy to be there. He had made it very clear over the past year or so that he wanted to play for a winner and now he has his wish.

I don’t have a problem with Greinke wanting to play for a winner and eventually forcing his trade; over the years, many star players were stuck on bad teams and several ultimately demanded a trade to get the chance to win.

I get it.

But none of those players gave up on his team because they were losers. None of them saw their numbers decline because they couldn’t give their all for a losing team.

Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009 was special. He went 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, striking out almost 10 batters per game while walking just two. And over the first two months of last season, he continued pitching at that same level.

But by June, he was starting to give up chunks of runs and he seemed less focused. His September ERA was 5.92 and he began to look like he didn’t care.

A year earlier, he told the Kansas City press, “I don’t want to play anywhere else,” but by the end of last season he switched agents so that his trade could come quicker. There were grumblings all summer that he had just given up.

Felipe Lopez: That Didn't Work Out Well

Marc Serota/Getty Images If this is true—and I have no verifiable proof to that end—why would Brewers’ players want him on their team? And certainly, Nationals fans would have had mixed feelings about the acquisition of Greinke because of their experience with a player who not too long ago dogged it for two seasons in Washington.

I was stunned when the Nationals obtained Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in a multi-player trade four years ago. They gave up just two relievers and a couple of utility players.

Kearns was a rising star who had averaged .265-25-95 over a 162-game season to that point in his career. His difficulties since, though, had nothing to do with desire.

Lopez, however, is another story.

He made it clear that he wasn’t happy with the trade that brought him to Washington, but he was a professional and I believed the attitude wouldn’t affect his performance.

Over his first five major league seasons, Lopez averaged .260-18-72 over 162 games and batted .291-23-85 the year before the trade. He was on his way to a similar season when he was shipped to Washington in early summer.

In 2007, his only complete season with the Nationals, Lopez batted .245/.308/.352 with nine homers and 50 RBI. At the time of his release the following year (at the trade deadline), Lopez was batting .234/.305/.314.

Austin Kearns: He Gave The Nationals 100%

Christian Petersen/Getty Images That’s pretty bad.

The Cardinals signed him shortly after his release, and in 156 at-bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with four homers and 21 RBI. That’s twice as many homers and runs batted in with the Cardinals in half the at-bats.

That’s pretty good.

Since then, Lopez has batted .280/.351/.392 for the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Brewers and Red Sox, averaging 10 home runs and 60 RBI.

So in the five seasons before playing for the Nationals, he was a solid offensive shortstop. And in the two-plus years after leaving the Nationals, Lopez was a solid offensive shortstop.

But in parts of three seasons with the Nationals, he sucked big-time.

The only difference was that he didn’t want to play in Washington. And because of that, he didn’t give his teammates 100 percent.

Oh, I don’t think he realized that is what he was doing. I’m sure that in his mind, he was playing as hard as ever.

But he wasn’t.

The same thing applies to Zack Grienke: He was Cy Young himself when he felt content, but the moment he was someplace he didn’t want to be, he became the most mortal of pitchers. Beginning in June last season, his ERA was 4.92. He gave up four or more runs in 11 of his last 21 starts.

For four months, he was just another pitcher.

If the Brewers play well next season, Greinke stands a good chance of winning another Cy Young award. Over the last five seasons, he has a 3.32 ERA, which translates to about 2.82 in the National League.

He’ll be dominant.

But what if the Brewers aren’t in a pennant race? How long will it take before he loses focus and his numbers again become mediocre? Will he ask—once again—to be traded to a contender?

Zack Greinke, Felipe Lopez or any one player just isn’t worth it.

ZACH GREINKE TOO MUCH LIKE J.D. MARTIN TO BE WORTH FOUR PROSPECTS

2010-12-15T11:49:00.001-07:00

Now, don't everyone gang up on me. I'm just thinking out loud for a minute.

Since the end of the season, the Washington Nationals have been chasing a bevy of top-flight starting pitchers including the Royals' Zach Greinke. The 26-year-old is so good that the asking price for the former Cy Young Award winner is four top prospects.

And that's the starting point.

The Royals have been clear as to the type of players they would want in return. From the Nationals, they would want a replacement starting pitcher (possibly John Lannan, but probably Jordan Zimmermann), a middle infielder (most definitely Ian Desmond), a major league outfielder (Roger Bernadina and/or Mike Morse), a catcher (Wilson Ramos because Derrek Norris is still two years away) and a lower-level minor league outfielder, perhaps someone like Eury Perez.

I doubt they would take Lannan, who is a good number-three starter, but just a number three. Jordan Zimmermann is a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter but with Stephen Strasburg on the mend, he'll slide down to the two-spot next season.

Though he is considered one of baseball's best pitchers, Greinke has had only one outstanding season. In 2009, he was Cy Young himself, going 16-8, 2.16. Very impressive, indeed.

But in his other six seasons, from 2004 to 2008, and 2010, Greinke pitched well but wasn't a star. He gave no indication that he could carry a team in a pennant race.

Zach Greinke: 5.80 ERA in 2005

The Nationals have on their roster a pitcher who has done fairly well in parts of two seasons in Washington. J.D. Martin is a former first-round pick and has produced as a minor-league free agent who made it to the majors without his 96 mph fastball.

Let's compare Greinke's numbers (all except those from that magical 2009 season) and compare it to Martin's efforts, both based a full 162-game season:

Greinke 10-13, 4.25, 9.6/3.4/7.4, 1.35 Whip (base runners per inning)

Martin 9-13, 4.13, 10.2/2.5/4.9 1.34 Whip

To be fair, Greinke's sample is six times larger than Martin's and I am in no way suggesting that they are equals when on a major league mound. That said, the internal numbers aren't that different. Greinke gives up fewer hits but walks more batters. Their base runners allowed per inning is almost identical. And Martin's ERA is a little lower as well.

I didn't include Greinke's Cy Young Award season in his career numbers because I am not sure that he can ever duplicate it. In that one season, he allowed 1.4 fewer hits and .3 walks per nine-innings while striking out 2.1 more batters. His ERA was 1.66 runs lower than his career average.

Last season, all of his internal numbers returned to career form and his ERA was the highest its been since 2005.

It seems like the Royals want four or five prospects for a pitcher that doesn't exist. They are negotiating a trade for the 2009 Greinke who may never, probably will never, return.

Matt Garza of Tampa Bay, whose asking price is probably half that of Zach Greinke, has very similar career numbers. Let's compare them based on a 162-game season:

Garza: 12-13, 3.97, 8.7/3.2/7.1, 1.31 Whip

Greinke: 11-12, 3.82, 9.1/2.3/7.6, 1.36 Whip

Both players are 26-years-old, both players allow about the same number of base runners per game, and both players average about the same number of wins per season.

Garza hasn't had that really special season like Greinke but neither has he totally bombed (Greinke went 5-17, 5.80 in 2005).

I don't understand all the love for Greinke. One season does not a career make. If the Nationals really want to trade for a pitcher, let it be Garza. He's just as good as Greinke and can be had for much less.

And really, how much better would either of them be over a full season than J.D. Martin, at least based on past history? If they all start the same number of games, I'd say four or five games.

Is the $12 or $13 million in additional payroll costs worth four or five games next season?

Perhaps 2011 should be the last season that the Nationals can afford to look closely at pitchers like J.D. Martin, guys who aren't great but can do quality work from the back of the rotation.

Martin is capable of a 10-10, 4.10 type of season, the kind of pitching most good teams have at the back of the rotation.

Forget Greinke, consider Garza, and give Martin a try. That's my take, anyway.

FORGET THE PITCHING, NATIONALS NEED OFFENSE NOW

2010-12-14T17:08:00.000-07:00

There are many glum faces along the National League East corridor this morning. The best starting rotation in the league just became the best in all of baseball, perhaps the best in the last half-decade or so.

Suddenly, moves made by the other four teams—the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals—seem to have gone for naught. Instead of being just a few games better than the other contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a division all their own.

And the cackling can be heard straight down I-95.

Many are suggesting that the Nationals immediately stop their pursuit of pitching upgrades, that adding Carl Pavano through free agency or trading for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza is fruitless.

Cliff Lee could beat John Lannan 5-2 and Zach Greinke 3-2. A loss is a loss regardless of its beauty.

Moreover, the cost for those other pitchers just increased as Lee’s suitors now turn to those four or five available top pitchers, driving up their cost.

What’s a moribund franchise to do?

The first problem is that the Jayson Werth signing will make little sense if that ends up being the only major change the Nationals make over the winter. Those $18 million dollars just can’t be justified as a stand-alone contract.

But I agree with the pundits that it doesn’t make much sense to bring in those hot-shot starters if they give you only a minimally better chance to win the game.

If the Nationals open the 2011 season with just the pitchers they now have, this is how the rotation might look with projected statistics based on how they’re preformed the past two or three seasons & based on a 162-game season:

1—John Lannan 10-14, 4.10, 9.4/3.3/4.6

Lannan’s 2010 season hurt his career numbers but a sore elbow certainly hurt his performance last season. He was one of just a handful of pitchers to have an ERA below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009. On a good team, Lannan could be counted on for: 12-10, 3.75

2—Jordan Zimmermann 6-10, 4.71, 9.3/2.9/8.8

Zimmermann’s numbers are deceiving. He’s had many great starts over his two seasons but a few rookie-roughed-up debacles skewed his stats. He’s a borderline number-one starter or a top number-two. Zimmerman’s good team stats with a little experience: 15-11, 3.44

3—Jason Marquis 14-12, 4.37, 9.1/3.5/4.9

The above numbers are Marquis’ actual statistics from 2007-2009. After elbow surgery and time on the disabled list last season, there is no reason to believe that Marquis cannot return to his solid though not stellar performances of the last five or six seasons.

4—Livan Hernandez 10-12, 3.66, 9.2/2.7/4.8

After a few difficult seasons, Hernandez returned to form last season (see above). He is nothing more than a number-four or number-five starter, but he does his job effectively, pitching 200 innings, shortening the game and giving his team a chance to win.

There are a few players who might secure the final spot in the rotation:

Ross Detwiler 3-14, 4.74, 10.3/ 4.2/5.2

Those numbers are ugly, but good rookie pitchers sometimes pitch ugly. Last season, heading into his final start against the Phillies, Detwiler—the Nationals first round pick in 2007—had a fine record of 1-2, 2.52. He has shown he can be a starter in the National League. It’s just the matter of if he will. Projected record for good team with some experience: 10-10, 4.10

Yuneksy Maya 0-3, 5.88, 10.4/3.8/4.2

Signed last summer as a free agent, Maya was one of Cuba’s best pitchers on their international traveling team. He started five games in the minors and did well, winning a game and crafting a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just 7.6 hits per nine-innings while striking out nearly eight.

This winter, he was even better. Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Maya went 4-1, 0.56, striking out a batter an inning while allowing less than four runners per game.

With the Nationals last fall, he looked nervous during his first four starts but settled down in his last game against the Mets, allowing two earned runs while striking out four in six innings.

Maya could be the key for the Nationals’ rotation. He dominated during the World Baseball Classic in 2009, finishing with a 1.23 ERA. He has the talent to be a true number-three starter, and that will happen once he gains experience. The question is whether he gains that experience in the minors or with the Nationals in 2011.

And if Stephen Strasburg follows fellow teammate Jordan Zimmermann, he will return from Tommy John Surgery sometime in August, further solidifying the rotation.

To be clear, the Phillies will win a lot games against a lot of different teams next season, the Nationals included. Nothing is going to change that. Adding pitchers like Carl Pavano or Matt Garza will make the Nationals better, but not better enough to succeed within the division.

The only way the Nationals can improve now is to spend their available contract dollars—dollars that would have been spent on Cliff Lee or Matt Garza—on productive hitters.

Adam LaRoche has to be the club’s new first baseman. He can be counted on to provide 25 home runs and 100 RBI. His defense is good. Here are my offensive projections for the team:

1B—Adam LaRoche (assuming): .265-25-90

2B—Danny Espinosa: .250-20-70, 25 steals

SS—Ian Desmond: .270-15-65, 20 steals

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .300-30-110

LF—Josh Willingham: .265-24-75

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .270-2-40, 40 steals

RF—Jayson Werth: .290-30-100

C—Pudge & Ramos: .265-8-50

That’s a very good offense, again assuming the Nationals can sign LaRoche. But there are some power-hitting center fielders out there. What if the Nationals were able to trade three or four prospects—like they would have for Zach Greinke—and replace Nyjer Morgan with a 280-25-75 kind of hitter?

Better yet, Jayson Werth has shown he can play center field. Move him over and let Mike Morse (15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year) play right field every day with Roger Bernandina as his backup.

That could be a formidable offense.

I believe in this team. It is one or two more good players from crossing that elusive .500 finish line. But the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia move just increased the cost of those remaining top pitchers by twenty or thirty-percent.

Forget the pitching and go with the offense, Nationals, and let all those arms culled during “The Plan” help lead you through the beginning of “Phase Two.”

DERREK LEE TO THE NATIONALS? NOT FOR A SECOND

2010-12-12T17:57:00.000-07:00

Bill Ladson of nationals.com reported on Sunday that the Washington Nationals are interested in signing first baseman Derrek Lee.

Oh, please.

If the Nationals indeed were to sign the 34-year-old, it would undue virtually all the goodwill the team received when it signed right-fielder Jayson Werth a week ago.

There are just too many reasons to believe this is not true.

First, Derek Lee is getting old and his stats are reflecting that. Over the last 10 seasons, Lee averaged .292/.378/.521 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI. Last season, Lee split time with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves and hit .260/.347/.428 with just 19 home runs and 80 runs driven in.

True, a thumb injury slowed him early in the season but he was mostly healthy when he joined the Braves and his numbers over the last 39 games in Atlanta were only peripherally better.

His clutch-hitting statistics also dropped in 2010. In 2009, Lee batted .320/.424/.600, about as good as it gets. Last season, he hit .283/.411/.552. With the game late or close, he dropped from .302/.381/.512 to .241/.355/.484.

And while he would be a defensive upgrade from Adam Dunn, while he is an above average defender he isn’t great. And again, he is a 34-year-old above average defender.

I’m guessing that this “news” is the Nationals trying to pressure Adam LaRoche into signing with the team, making him worry that he might lose the opportunity if he doesn’t act soon.

Probably the thing that makes the least sense is that Lee is a right-handed batter. If in fact the Nationals were to sign him, they would have a righty batting second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

That just doesn’t work at the major league level.

He’s old. His numbers are declining. He bats from the right side.

I just can’t believe that the Nationals are really interested in Derrek Lee.

SHOULD NATIONALS TRADE FOR ZACH GREINKE IN A 4-FOR-1 SWAP?

2010-12-08T22:46:00.000-07:00

The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they are ready to trade star pitcher Zach Greinke right now, or maybe they won't. Or maybe they will, only later, sometime around next season's July 31st trade deadline.

Or not. They have him under contract for two more seasons at $13.5 million per year.

That sounds a lot like the Toronto Blue Jays just hours before Roy Halladay was shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies for a truck load of prospects.

Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com reported last week that the Royals were seeking 4-5 players in return for their Cy Young Award winning pitcher. Today, he wrote that in return for Greinke, Kansas City would want 1) a starting major league pitcher to take his place, 2) a speedy center field prospect, 3) a young middle infielder and 4) a catcher who isn't too far away from the major leagues.

Though Greinke is just 26, he has been pitching in the major leagues for seven seasons. Over his first three years, he wasn't very good, averaging just 8-14, 4.63, 10.0/2.3/6.4. Since 2008, however, he's been superb, going 14-12, 3.25, 8.5/2.2/8.4.

So, just like Jayson Werth, the Nationals would be paying for just three good years.

Let's assume the Royals would accept four players. They would first need a major league pitcher to replace Greinke. That would probably be John Lannan. Their "speedy center fielder" could be Eury Perez (Low-A) if they didn't need a major league ready pitcher or Roger Bernadina if they did.

They would probably be given their choice of middle infielders Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa or Stephen Lombardozzi. They would certainly accept either Wilson Ramos or Derek Norris as their catcher.

So basically, it would cost the Nationals John Lannan, Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina and Wilson Ramos to get Zach Greinke.

Is it worth it?

Certainly, the loss of John Lannan would hurt. Over 162 games, he has averaged nine wins and a 4.10 ERA with a slash line of 9.4/3.3/4.6. He's just 25 and would be an ideal number-three or four starter for a good Nationals team.

The Royals have a decent shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt (.259-16-78 but with a .298 on-base percentage) but he's 29 and is due to make $6 million in 2012. That's just not going to happen, not in Kansas City. Desmond would be an able replacement.

But the Nationals could easily make due without Desmond. Danny Espinosa, who has good power, a great glove and strikeout problem, could move to short and Stephen Lombardozzi (.293/.387/.415 in the Arizona Fall League) could take over at second base.

Roger Bernadina could become a .290-20-80, 20 steals kind of outfielder or he could become a total bust. The Royals might see that too and prefer Eury Perez, the 20-year-old Dominican who just completed his fourth year of professional ball. He's averaged .312/.390/.402 along with 17 doubles, seven triples, five homers, 55 RBI and 65 stolen bases.

I'm not sure which catcher the Royals would prefer. Derek Norris will begin the season at Double-A Harrisburg and has averaged over 162 games .261/.414/.462 with 33 doubles, 25 homers and 88 RBI. He is just 21.

Ramos is just a year older and over five minor league seasons has averaged .285/.332/.431, 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 80 RBI. His defense is much better than Norris and already has 79 at-bats in the major leagues.

Because they need their catcher sooner rather than later, they'd likely pick Ramos (although Norris will end up being a much hitter).

So the Nationals can add a great pitcher to the rotation and give up Lannan, Perez, Desmond and Ramos to get him. The team can afford to lose Lannan, especially when Stephen Strasburg returns. They won't miss Bernadina and no one even knows who Eury Perez is yet. And chances are that Espinosa and Lombardozzi will be the team's long-term double play combination anyway.

And assuming that Jesus Flores is healthy, the Nationals can wait on Norris for another year, maybe two.

Finally, after five years of waiting, Washington finally has enough prospects that they can make one of those four-for-one or five-for-one deals. But should they?

In a word, no.

Over the last three seasons, Zach Greinke has averaged 13 wins to John Lannan's 9. The fact that both pitchers play for bad teams cancels out that part of the equation. That means that Greinke is worth about five more wins per season than Lannan.

That's one win for Ian Desmond and one for Wilson Ramos, one more for John Lannan and the last one for Eury Perez.

It's just not worth it. There were rumors that the Nationals could have gotten Tampa's Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) for Desmond and Tyler Clippard. That makes more sense. That's the kind of trade the team should jump on

WITH ADAM LAROCHE, NATIONALS COULD CLIMB ABOVE .500

2010-12-08T17:37:00.000-07:00

As the third day of baseball's Winter Meetings come to a close, I'm going to make a couple of assumptions regarding the future of the Washington Nationals. Perhaps neither will occur, but let's assume for a moment that they will.

First, I fully expect that the Nats will sign Adam LaRoche as the team's first baseman, probably a two year deal for $15 million or so.

Second, I think that Josh Willingham will remain as the team's left fielder in spite of reports that he will be traded if the team signs a significant bat to play at first (like LaRoche).

Take a look at the Nationals probable lineup for next season, assuming LaRoche and Willingham are with the team.

The statistics are the player's 2010 numbers based on them playing a full season. I chose to use Nyjer Morgan's career average over 162 games because I don't think it is possible for him to have a second season as bad as last year:

CF Nyjer Morgan: .283/.344/.360 2 HR 36 RBI 44 SB

SS Ian Desmond: .269/.308/.392 10 HR 65 RBI 17 SB

3B Ryan Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510 29 HR 98 RBI 4 SB

RF Jayson Werth: .296/.388/.532 27 HR 85 RBI 13 SB

LF Josh Willingham: .268/.389/.459 24 HR 81 RBI 8 SB

1B Adam LaRoche: .261/.320/.468 27 HR 109 RBI 0 SB

2B Danny Espinosa: .214/.277/.447 35 HR 87 RBI 0 SB

C Pudge/Ramos: .267/.298/.355 7 HR 62 RBI 3 SB

A couple of caveats regarding the numbers: All eight players' stats are based on 162 games so Zimmerman's numbers for example reflect four additional home runs and 13 more RBI.

Secondly, Espinosa's stats were based on a relatively small sampling, so his home run total (35) and stolen bases (0) are skewed. I expect him to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases next year if he's playing every day.

That can be a very productive lineup in 2011 if Nyjer Morgan returns to form, something I think he can do. And any team that can bat Adam LaRoche sixth is going to score a lot of runs.

If Willingham stays, manager Jim Riggleman will have to find a way to get Michael Morse into the lineup. He said earlier this week that he hoped to find 300 at-bats for the developing slugger. There is a way he can come close to that.

Though LaRoche hits pretty well against lefties (.264/.297/.462), Morse could play 15 or so games at first against the top lefties in the league. And with Willingham's problems remaining healthy, Riggleman could give him regular days off throughout the season, allowing Morse another 20 games in the lineup. When you add in pinch-hitting and perhaps a few games relieving Zimmerman at third, the 28-year-old could get 200 at-bats in 2011.

If Willingham is traded-a distinict possiblity-I would guess that that Morse would be the everyday left-fielder. Had he played 162 games last season, he would have batted .289-30-85. In reality, a full-time Morse would likely hit around .280-25-75, roughly the same as Josh.

How good will the Nationals be in 2011? It depends on the starting pitching. Both the offense and the bullpen seem strong enough now to give the team a chance to win every night.

Right now, the starting rotation includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Livan Hernandez and either Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler or J.D. Martin. Late in the season, of course, Stephen Strasburg returns.

One quality arm, someone along the lines of Matt Garza, and the Nationals are at least a .500 team, maybe better. If they do the impossible and somehow sign Cliff Lee--or trade for Zach Greinke--they could come awfully close to 85 wins.

It it difficult to believe that the Nationals could be that improved in 2011, but that of course is predicated on the team signing Adam LaRoche.

Here's hoping ....

IS BRANDON WEBB READY TO PITCH OR IS HE THIS YEAR'S CHIEN-MING WANG?

2010-12-07T09:42:00.000-07:00

It's been a roller-coaster type of day already, and it's not even noon.

Multiple sources were suggesting this morning that there was a "mystery team" that was willing to give free agent pitcher Cliff Lee that coveted seventh year that he badly wants, something the Yankees are adamant they will not do. There was even a report that the Nationals were about to officially make that offer with dollars that were in the "ridiculous" range.

But Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post put the kibosh on that story pretty quickly.

So we're back to Carl Pavano and Brandon Webb as possible additions to the rotation.

It's hard to find out exactly what is the status of Webb, who outside of a one-game stint in 2009 hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2008. During his best years (2005-2008), Webb averaged 18-9, 3.23 similar numbers to Chien-Ming Wang's 19-6, 3.87.

His shoulder surgery didn't repair any damage but rather cleaned out the loose pieces and floaties within the shoulder. By this past September, he was ready to pitch but the Diamondbacks said no, probably for fear of making him any more valuable as a free agent.

Webb pitched two innings in the team's instructional league and gave up two runs and three hits in two innings.

But that's all I know. He could be ready to take the ball on Opening Day or he might spend the summer in Viera. I've put out some feelers to try to get a better feel for his health and prognosis, but as of yet, he's just another injured pitcher who is coming back from injured reserve.

FORGET THE WHINING: NATIONALS ARE LOOKING GOOD

2010-12-06T21:52:00.001-07:00

Is Adam LaRoche Next On Rizzo's Wish-List?

The baseball world is still whining and complaining about the Nationals' seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals.

Let 'em whine, I say.

For some reason, the Nationals just can't placate anyone, so why try? For years, the team has been slapped about because they refused to spend millions of dollars on players who wouldn't help them become a contender.

Now the team thinks they are close enough to contending that they give a very good player $18 million a year and what happens? Those same people whine and complain that the Nationals pushed the pay-scale up for the remaining free agents, costing other teams millions of dollars.

Let's be clear: I don't care about all the other teams. And why should I? They didn't much care about us while they were beating our brains in on the field, filling up our stadium with their fans, and mocking us off the field.

If the Mets or Angels or whoever have to pay a few million more for Carl Crawford because of the Nationals, I say that's great.

There is no doubt that the Nationals overpaid for Jayson Werth. A couple of analysts on XM Radio said that the team gave Werth two more years and $4 million more per season than any other team, that they were negotiating against themselves.

They were right but couldn't be more wrong.

The Nationals couldn't have signed Werth by giving him $1 more per year and one year extra than the next closest team. No, they had to obliterate the competition and they had to do it fast. There is no doubt that the dollars and years of the contract were the absolute minimum it took to get Werth to Washington.

The only scenario that would make this a bad contract would be if this was the only contract that Washington signs this off-season. But the timing tells me that's not going to happen. The team announced the signing on Sunday, before the Winter Meetings even began. This was a signal to free agent players and their agents that the team was open for business. If a player wasn't certain that the team was committed to winning, they are now.

Some random thoughts, in random order of course:

Though I love Josh Willingham, now is the time to trade him. Though he isn't Nick Johnson-fragile, he is close. The team could get two prospects in return and if they move Mike Morse to left, they wouldn't lose much in the way of offense. Morse's 2010 numbers (.289-15-41) works out to .289-32-90 for an entire season. No, I don't think he'll hit that well but he'll hit 25 homers and drive in 80 runs easily.
Many are upset that manager Jim Riggleman said that Nyjer Morgan was going to be the team's center fielder next season, but really, 2010 was his first bad year. Prior to last season, Morgan averaged .303/.362/.391 with 42 stolen bases over a 162-game season. The team can afford to give him another chance with Roger Bernadina in reserve should he falter.
I would much rather have Adam LaRoche at first the next couple of seasons instead of Carlos Pena. Last season, LaRoche batted .261-21-100, typical numbers for the 30-year-old. Pena, on the other hand, has seen his numbers decline each of the last four seasons.
I hope the Nationals resign Chien-Ming Wang. He has said he'll return if no one else offers him a major league contract. He was too good over his career (and looked good during the Instructional League last fall) not to take one more chance. And while they are at it, here's hoping the Nationals sign Brandon Webb too.
Reports out yesterday morning hinted at a Tyler Clippard and Ian Desmond for Matt Garza trade. Garza, just 26, went 15-10, 3.91 for Tampa Bay. The Nationals are deep in the bullpen and have Steve Lombardozzi ready to take over at second while Daniel Espinosa would return to his natural position, shortstop. I'd do it in a heartbeat.

I have little doubt that the Nationals will end the week a much improved team, one that perhaps will be good enough to play .500 ball next year. That's .500 ball without Stephen Strasburg. Imagine what they might be able to do with him in 2011.

EVEN JORGE CANTU CAN REPLACE ADAM DUNN

2010-12-04T16:37:00.001-07:00

For the last couple of days, I have been doing a lot of writing about the loss of Adam Dunn and how that affects the Washington Nationals.

I've been comparing Dunn's offensive capabilities against two of his most likely replacements, Carlos Pena and Adam LaRoche and have come to the conclusion that perhaps even those two might be more than the Nationals need in 2011.

The Nationals are going to be a better team next season, but not so much better that they are going to be in any pennant chase, even on its periphery. So why spend $8 or $10 million on a replacement when that player will be little more than a public relations move.

There is no make-or-break player available on the free agent market or available for trade this off season so why not lay the foundation for bigger moves next year? Also, Stephan Strasburg won't return until late in 2011 and his return will be like adding a $20 million per year free agent.

So 2012 is the future of the Washington Nationals.

Following the 2011 season, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez (now with Boston) and Albert Pujols will be free agents. Certainly, other teams will be in pursuit as well but the Nationals would certainly have the resources to sign any one of them.

If the Nationals show improvement next season, one or more might be willing to listen.

Further, first base prospects Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore are still too young to be able to project if or when they will be able to play first for the Nationals.

So if the Nationals aren't interested in moving either Josh Willingham or Mike Morse to first (and that seems to be the case), they need a cheap, capable first baseman who has shown in the past he can be counted on.

Enter Jorge Cantu.

Cantu, 29 has spent seven years in the major leagues, splitting time between Tampa Bay and Florida (before being traded to Texas late last season). Over a 162-game season, he has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percentage.

Offensively, he's similar to Nick Johnson without the walks (Johnson has averaged .270-20-80 over 162 games played).

He had an off year last season due mostly to his difficulty learning the pitchers in the American League but his statistics with the Marlins, expanded to 162 games, were just fine. He was on track to hit .262-26-90 in a full season with Florida but his one home run in 98 at-bats with Texas derailed him.

But as we've learned with Adam Dunn, power numbers don't tell the whole story. Let's compare Cantu's lifetime clutch hitting stats with those of Dunn to see just how much he really will be missed.

First, let's take a look at just their stats while playing first base. Both players have played extensively at other positions so this is how the two players' stats would look based only time at first and averaged into a 162-game season (easier for comparison purposes)

Jorge Cantu: .285-28-92, .340 OBP and .459 slugging

Adam Dunn: .248-39-102, .376 OBP and .522 slugging

Over 162 games, and based only on offensive production while at first, the differences between the two players are not as much as you would think.

Now lets look at the clutch statistics:

Two out, Runners in scoring position:

Cantu: .280/.358/.453

Dunn: .214/.429/.443

Now that's ugly for Adam, but it gets even worse. His batting average for balls in play (strikeouts don't effect batting average) is just .191 while Cantu's is a robust .307.

Late in the game with the score close:

Cantu: .274/.320/.413

Dunn: .233/.382/.476

While Dunn's batting average for balls in play is better at .295, it still pales when compared to Cantu's .324.

When the game is tied:

Cantu: .279/.312/.464

Dunn: .247/.386/.539

Dunn's batting average for balls in play here is just .240, 56 points below Cantu's .296

When team is behind:

Cantu: .274/.323/.444

Dunn: .253/.364/.511

Dunn's .306 average when he puts the ball in play in this category is acutally higher than Cantu's .301

So, just like Adam LaRoche and Carlos Pena, while Jorge Cantu's offensive numbers at first glance don't look as impressive as Dunn's, he is a far better clutch hitter in the later innings and with the game on the line.

So while we all loved Adam, he couldn't field well and didn't hit very well when we needed him most.

Cantu was traded by the Marlins this season in part because of the 16 errors he committed but he was playing third base in 2010. At first, he plays acceptable defense and certainly much better than Dunn.

As much as in pains me to say, Adam Dunn won't be missed by the Washington Nationals in 2011. Either Jorge Cantu or Adam LaRoche will provide the team with more hits and runs when they are needed most, late in the game and with runners on base.

Either Cantu or LaRoche would be a good one-year stop-gap until someone better comes along.

J.D. MARTIN GOOD ENOUGH TO BOLSTER BACK OF NATIONALS ROTATION AND SAVE TEAM MILLIONS

2010-12-04T11:52:00.000-07:00

Martin has similar stats to de la Rosa while saving millions

Baseball’s Winter Meetings begin next week and by Thursday the future of the Washington Nationals should be clear.

Can General Manager Mike Rizzo find a top-of-the-rotation starter to replace the injured Stephen Strasburg and will he replace Adam Dunn with someone equally capable at first?

With Adam Dunn’s contract now off the books, the Nationals could easily add $30-40 million in payroll and still be one of the more underfunded teams in the Senior Circuit. And they have been trying.

The Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa was coveted by many teams this off season, the Nationals included. But before the team could come close to making a firm offer, he was resigned by Colorado for two years and $22 million.

Unless something changes in the next month or so, the Nationals will head into Spring Training with a stable of starters that can give the team at least a chance to win every time they take the mound.

After a rough start and a trip to Double-A Harrisburg, John Lannan rebounded and had a solid second half, going 7-4, 3.42 with a .271/.312/.416 slash line. He is just 25 and continues to improve.

Jordan Zimmermann has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected to have a breakout year in 2011. Zimmermann—just 24—was shaky in his first game back against the Cardinals but pitched well for the rest of the season. He started six games and went 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Opponents batted just .233/.298/.476 against him while striking out eight per nine innings.

Jason Marquis’ bad start in 2010 led to elbow surgery and a stint on the injured reserve. In his first five starts, he was horrible, going 0-5, 14.33, .405/.500/.703. But from August 20th on, Marquis was solid, crafting a 2-4 record but with a 3.61 ERA and a .275/.346/.383 slash line. He’s healthy, still just 31, and should match his average over the last six seasons of 13-11, 4.49 in 2011.

Livan Hernandez returned from the dead last season and was rewarded with a raise and a major league contract for 2011, something he did not have at the start of Spring Training last year. After spinning a 5.28 ERA over the previous four seasons, Livan rebounded in 2010, going 10-12 with a fine 3.66 ERA, twenty-sixth best in the National League (only thirty pitchers with qualifying innings had an earned run average below 4.00).

That leaves one spot open in the rotation with Ross Detwiler (1-3, 4.25), J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.13) and Yunesky Maya (0-3, 5.88) as the most likely candidates to fill it.

Yunesky Maya in September Call-Up Action

Before getting crushed in his last game of the season, Detwiler pitched wonderfully, going 1-2, 2.52, .276/.360/.357 in seven starts. Maya looked both rusty and nervous in his three September starts after his call-up but has been dominant in the Dominican Winter League. In five starts, Maya is 3-1, 0.69, allowing a .163 batting average-against and less than one runner per inning.

And before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, Martin gave his team a chance to win every time he took to the mound.

Not counting his last start—when the elbow problems became acutely apparent—Martin was solid for the Nationals. In seven starts, he went 1-4 but with a 3.35 ERA and a .287/.305/.463 opponent’s slash line.

Martin is healthy and ready to pitch when Spring Training opens in two months. But the team continues to seek out other options for the rotation, and Martin seems to be an afterthought.

Options like Jorge de la Rosa

De la Rosa is two years older than Martin, and though he has pitched five more seasons in the major leagues, de la Rosa’s numbers just aren’t all that good. Sure, he’s a strikeout pitcher and can strikeout a batter with runners on base where Martin would have to allow contact to get the out, increasing the chance for runs to score.

But let’s compare the career stats of Martin and de la Rosa. Yes, I understand that the Rockies’ pitcher has a larger body of work but generally, we can get a feel for the type of pitchers they are.

ERA

De la Rosa: 5.02

Martin: 4.32

Hits per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 9.2

Martin: 10.2

Walks per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 4.6

Martin: 2.5

Strikeouts per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 8.0

Martin: 4.9

Base runners per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 1.52

Martin: 1.40

Batting average-against

De la Rosa: .266

Martin: .282

On-base average allowed

De la Rosa: .354

Martin: .334

Slugging average-allowed

De la Rosa: 434

Martin: .492

Percentage of balls thrown for strikes

De la Rosa: 60-percent

Martin: 63-percent

Martin gives up more hits but de la Rosa gives up many more walks. In the end, de la Rosa allows more base runners every inning, giving the opposing team more chances to score.

Of the nine categories, Martin leads in five and de la Rosa in four.

Since joining the Rockies, de la Rosa has averaged—assuming a 162 game season-fifteen wins and a 4.49 ERA with 1.38 base runners per inning. And the Coors Park curse isn’t in play here; he pitches better at home in Denver than on the road.

Again, based on being a starter for the entire 162 games, Martin has averaged nine wins and a 4.32 ERA with 1.39 base runners per inning.

So Martin gives up fewer runners, has a lower earned run average, is two years younger, and will make under $1 million next year.

De la Rosa has a great fastball, can embarrass hitters with his stuff, but walks more than twice as many batters as Martin.

And He’ll make $11 million in 2011.

I would advise the Nationals—yeah, they’ll listen, right?—to go with the four certain starters listed above and give Martin the opportunity to win that fifth spot in the rotation along with Maya and Detwiler.

That $11 million that the Nationals didn’t spend on de la Rosa, along with the $12 million they didn’t spend on Adam Dunn, could buy two very high quality hitters, a first baseman like Adam LaRoche and an outfielder like Jason Werth or Carl Crawford.

With that kind of offense, the rotation will be good enough for the team to win more games than they lose in 2011.

And, oh yeah, they get back that kid with the 100 mph fastball sometime in August. What was his name again?

FORGET THE GLOOM AND DOOM: NATIONALS FUTURE STILL BRIGHT

2010-12-03T10:34:00.000-07:00

As the gloaming of the post Adam Dunn era begins to envelop the city that once embraced him, I am somewhat struck at the gloom and doom that is being predicted for both the team and the fans of the Washington Nationals.

Mark Zuckerman adroitly put those fears into words this morning when he wrote, “Plenty of fans have been insisting they wouldn't renew their season tickets if the Nats didn't re-sign Dunn. How many will actually stick to their word and follow through? We'll see, though with no Dunn and no Stephen Strasburg for the majority of 2011, there sure doesn't figure to be a lot of buzz on South Capitol Street.

And there doesn't figure to be a ton of optimism inside the home clubhouse among players who absolutely adored Dunn but more importantly want to feel like this organization is moving closer to realizing actual success.”

Of course, Mark isn’t saying that fans are going to walk away, never to return. And he isn’t suggesting that current players have given up hope for any real future for the team.

He is simply reporting what he’s seeing.

Now let me report what I have seen.

After the Washington Senators left town, I became an Atlanta Braves fan (though for the life of me I don’t understand why). People forget that they were even worse than the Senators, and they were worse for a much longer period of time.

For sixteen seasons—from 1975 through 1990—the Braves had a winning season exactly twice, in 1982 and 1983. In 1975, attendance was second-worst in the National league and in 1990 they were dead last when only 980,000 fans came to Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium.

The only constant during that period was star slugger Dale Murphy, who averaged .267-32-96 for the moribund Braves. But in 1990, Murphy was a couple of years older than Dunn is now, and the Braves traded him to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies.

Forlorn fans vowed never to watch a game again. They had enough of losing and now their only real slugger was gone. Reporters feared that without Murphy—the face of the franchise—the team would stop teetering near baseball’s abyss and fall into it.

A year later, the Atlanta Braves won 94 games and went to the World Series. Without Dale Murphy, and after two decades of losing, 2.1 million fans did the tomahawk chop at Fulton County Stadium, fourth best in the league.

In 1992, the Braves returned to the World Series and drew more than three-million fans, besting the rest of the league.

The rest, as they say, is history.

I lived in Seattle in the early 1980’s and the Mariners were a bad team with cheap ownership playing in the worst park I have ever seen.

From 1977 through 1995, covering nineteen seasons, the Seattle Mariners had a winning season exactly twice. In 1979, they were dead last in attendance. In 1995, they drew barely a million to the Kingdome, ninth best in the league.

For years, the Mariners’ amateur draft policy was one of signability. Tremendous talent was left on the board in favor of players willing to take a smaller check. In 1979, the Mariners had the number-one pick in the draft and chose Al Chambers, a player that several teams had not even scouted and a couple had never heard of.

This led to a severe case of baseball apathy in Seattle. With so many outdoor activities to enjoy in the region, no one wanted to spend three hours in a concrete cavern watching a bad team play bad baseball.

Reporters worried out loud that good players would never want to come to Seattle. In 1982, the Mariners traded top reliever Bill Caudill to the Yankees for prize prospect Gene Nelson who had dominated the Florida State League the previous year winning 20 games with an ERA under 2.00.

He wined and complained about the trade, saying that he didn’t want to play baseball in Seattle.

But in 1996, a few of their prospects matured and the Mariners became a winner. They drew 2.7 million, fourth best in the American League. In 1997, they won 90 games for the first time and drew more than three million fans.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Braves’ fans suffered for sixteen years before they were able to support a winner and support they did. Mariners’ fans had to wait even longer before winning baseball came to Seattle, but once it did, they came out to the Kingdome in droves.

Currently, Washington Nationals’ fans have had to endure five losing seasons. To match the Mariners mark for futility, Washington would have to wait until the 2026 season before playoff baseball would come to Nationals Park.

That would be in Ryan Zimmerman’s twentieth season.

Since the days of the St. Louis Browns and Philadelphia Athletics, fans swear that they’ll stop supporting their losing team, and yet tickets become impossible to find when their team starts to win.

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers won just 43 games and drew just 1.3 million fans. Three seasons later, they more than doubled their wins and doubled their attendance as well.

And in 1968, the Washington Senators won 65 games and finished dead-last in American League attendance, drawing just 546,000 fans. A year later, they won 21 more games and almost doubled their attendance.

We say things when we are frustrated and Nationals’ fans are no exception. When things don’t go right, we swear we’ll never watch another game. And when a marquee player like Adam Dunn isn’t resigned, we really really won’t ever watch another game.

And players like Ryan Zimmerman grumble about the team’s ability to field a winner and offer up veiled threats about their long-term desire to remain with the team.

And then a couple of free agent signings occurs, along with a trade or two, and a few of the kids suddenly mature, and the Nationals will win 90 games and make the playoffs.

And suddenly, 37,000 fans will pack the park every night and swear they supported the team even when they were losers. And Ryan Zimmerman will tell reporters how great it is to have a first baseman who saves him six or seven errors every year.

It’s going to happen. It always has. It always will. The only question is when.

And when it happens, these five years of futility will be quickly forgotten, just as it happened in Atlanta, and just as it happened in Seattle.

That’s how baseball works.

WITH ADAM DUNN GONE, NATIONALS NOW HAVE CHANCE TO GET IT RIGHT

2010-12-02T17:43:00.001-07:00

Well, it finally happened. Adam Dunn has gone the way of Al Capone, making his living on the South side of Chicago.

And at $14 million per year for four years, he's making Capone-type money too.

Now, let's be objective for just a moment. This is like that time our favorite girl friend jilted us, and we hurt and were angry, but didn't see at the time that it was the best thing that could have happened.

Adam Dunn is one of the worst-fielding first baseman in the league. He puts up impressive numbers, but not when the game is on the line. He batted just .169 with runners in scoring position and two outs. With the bases loaded, he was even worse, batting just .125. Dunn hit .146 in the 9th inning. A full 20-percent of his at-bats went to 0-2 and he ended up batting .139/.162/269 with three home runs and six RBI in those 108 at-bats.

His strikeouts went up last season while his on-base percentage went down.

He'll be 36-years-old in the final year of the contract.

And Dunn will earn $14 million a year?

I remember when Alfonso Soriano left Washington after the 2006 season when he hit .277-46-95 with 41 steals. He signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Nationals' fans were angered because of the perceived cheapness of ownership.

Soriano was 30 and supposedly in the prime of his career.

Over the four seasons he has played with the Cubbies, Soriano has aged four years, earned $72 million and averaged .271-26-70 while continuing to play poor defense. The Nationals received two top picks in the 2007 amateur draft, one of whom turned out to be Jordan Zimmerman.

Soriano's contract--and play--has hampered the Cubs the past few seasons. They would love nothing more than finding some team to take him off of their hands. But alas, no one is stupid enough.

Earlier today, Nationals' third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said that the loss of Dunn was "A shame" because he wanted to remain in Washington. Well, he also wanted to stay in the National League. And he didn't want to be a designated hitter at this stage of his career.

And yet that's exactly what happened. In other words, it was all about money.

So the Nationals saved $14 million by not signing Adam Dunn. Looking at 2009's free agency signings, the Nationals could have added these three players for a little less than the total of Dunn's yearly contract:

CF Marlon Byrd: .293-12-66

1B Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

2B Kelly Johnson: .271-26-71

For $13.2 million, these three players would have given the Nationals a combined .277 batting average, 63 home runs and 237 RBI. All three are solid defenders and better than the players they would have replaced.

At a certain talent level, baseball players begin to earn more than they are worth. Adam Dunn is one of those players. $14 million shared among those three players would have given the Nationals 25 more home runs and 135 more RBI than Adam Dunn alone.

Sure, Dunn was a great team player and great in the clubhouse. But he couldn't field, didn't hit well in the clutch and played just one position.

The Nationals could have spend $14 million for one player, or they could spend the same amount for three above-average major league players.

To me, it's a no-brainer. Put Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche on the 2010 team, take away Adam Dunn, and the Nationals win 75-77 games, maybe more.

All of this, of course, presupposes that the Nationals will not sit on that saved cash and will instead sign more free agents or use it to pay players they may trade for.

Subjectively, the Nationals and their fans are smarting a bit tonight. But objectively, not signing Adam Dunn could be the turning point for this once moribund franchise.

And remember, two other teams walked away from Adam Dunn before today. I think that says far more about the player than the team he left.

DUNN LOSS MITIGATED BY HIS POOR CLUTCH HITTING

2010-12-01T11:13:00.001-07:00

Dunn Turns Back on Washington

Now that Adam Dunn has declined arbitration and is officially a "former National," his loss can be looked at from a more objective perspective.

Though I hoped against hope that the team would resign the slugging first baseman, it now is easier to admit that the Nationals can become a better team without him.

There is no question that Dunn was a poor fielder. He had no range at first and let too many balls hit right at him end up in right field. But Dunn's defense wasn't the real problem for the Nationals.

In his two seasons playing inside the Beltway, Dunn averaged .264-38-104 with a .378 on-base percentage. Certainly, that's top-five production for first baseman. But Washington is a city that thrives on "internal numbers" and Dunn's just aren't very good.

He batted just .169 with runners in scoring position and two outs. With the bases loaded, he was even worse, batting just .125. Dunn hit .146 in the 9th inning. A full 20-percent of his at-bats went to 0-2 and he ended up batting .139/.162/269 with three home runs and six RBI in those 108 at-bats.

So when the team needed him most, Adam Dunn all too often didn't come through.

Let's compare Dunn's clutch statistics with former teammate Ryan Zimmerman.

Zimmerman batted .365/.507/.538 with two outs and runners in scoring position. With the bases loaded, he hit .353/.391/.412. With an 0-2 count, Zimmerman batted .214 and doubled Dunn's RBI output. In the 9th inning, he hit .278/.400/.500.

Carlos Pena seems to be the player General Manager Mike Rizzo most wants to replace Dunn, but his clutch statistics are even worse than Dunn's. Adam LaRoche, another possibility at first, isn't much better.

Based on who is available this off-season, the Nationals will need to sign two offensive players (first and in the outfield) to make up for the loss of Dunn's power. If they do that, and both players are at least average defenders, then the loss of Adam Dunn will be tolerable.

That said, I still think that the Nationals might have the answer to their first base question already on their roster in Mike Morse.

Over 162 games, Morse would have hit .289-30-82 last season with a .352 on-base percentage. He batted .350/.469/.550 with two out and runners in scoring position and .299/.396/.550 with two out and no one on.

If the Nationals play Morse at first in 2011, and find a .280-20-80 guy to replace him in right field, then yes, the loss of Dunn will be minimized. But the addition of Carlos Pena, and an outfield of Josh Willingham, Nyjer Morgan and Morse/Roger Bernadina, will only lead to another season of woe in Washington.

I have been writing about the Nationals since before they played their first game here, and seldom have I questioned team management. That said, losing Dunn and not replacing him with at least equal power--be it from one or two players--will cause the few remaining fans to just walk away.

Here's hoping Rizzo has a grand plan that will shortly be implemented.

NATIONALS NEED TO STAY AWAY FROM THESE "TOP TIER" PITCHERS

2010-11-30T11:19:00.000-07:00

Jorge de la Rosa

There seems to be a lot of long faces this morning now that pitcher Jorge de la Rosa has resigned with the Colorado Rockies last night for a three-year, $32 million contract.

The question I have is why is that a bad thing? Just like Javier Vazquez the day before, not signing de la Rosa can't be anything but good for the still-building Washington Nationals.

de la Rosa will turn 30 before the start of the season. Before joining the Rockies in 2008, he played for both the Brewers and Royals, combining to go 15-23, 5.85, 10.4/5.2/6.4. In his three seasons with Colorado, he has gone 34-24, 4.49, still walking four batters per nine-innings.

Much has been said of the Coors Field effect on his ERA. But last season, de la Rosa went 6-3, 4.10 at home while going 2-4, 4.36 on the road.

In other words, he pitched better in Denver then he did around the National League.

Sammy Solis

He's intriguing because he is a strikeout pitcher, averaging eight per nine-innings over his career. However, de la Rosa has also averaged almost five walks per nine-innings over that same span.

This isn't the kind of guy who is going to help turn around the Washington Nationals. Unless he pulls a Sandy Koufax--that is, turn things around later in his career--de la Rosa is just another pitcher who could on any given night be superb ... or not.

Again, I'd much rather head into next season with John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, Livan Herandez in the front of the rotation with either Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler bringing up the rear. And lets not forget last year's second-round pick Sammy Solis, who pitched well in the Arizona Fall League this month and who many scouts say won't need very much time in the minor leagues.

And when Stephen Strasburg returns from Tommy John surgery--probably in August--that will be a very solid rotation.

While I appreciate Mike Rizzo's efforts, if he can't bring in someone like Matt Garza or Zach Greinke, there is no one out there that much better than the players the Nationals currently have. I think it's time to let the Nationals' kids--the ones who have talent--learn on the job.

Yeah. We're that close.

NATIONALS DODGE BULLET: JAVIER VAZQUEZ SIGNS WITH MARLINS

2010-11-28T13:09:00.000-07:00

Livan & Javier: From the Same Mold

Bill Ladson of nationals.com is reporting that Javier Vazquez, who had been courted by the Nationals this off-season, has signed with the Florida Marlins.

Vazquez, 34, signed a one-year, incentive-laden contract after a 10-10, 5.32, 8.9/3.7/6.9 disaster with the Yankees. The number of teams he could sign with were limited, partly due to his poor 2010 performance and partly because he wanted to play in a city near his family's Puerto Rican home.

I am very thankful for many things during this Thanksgiving weekend, including the Nationals not signing Vazquez to any length of contract.

Prior to his comeback year with the Braves in 2009 (15-10, 2.87), Vazquez averaged just 13-12, 4.50 from 2004 through 2008. For his career, he's averaged 12-12, 4.26 over a full major league season.

During those same seasons (2004-2008), our own Livan Hernandez averaged an almost identical 13-12, 4.57 and last season was 10-12, 3.66, allowing almost a full run less per nine-innings pitched than Vazquez.

If the Nationals were able to sign Hernandez to a minor-league contract in 2010 and resign him to a nominal major league deal for 2011, why would Javier Vazquez cost the team any more?

And really, why would the team even want another end-of-the-road, end-of-the-rotation type of pitcher?

Returning from last season are John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmerman and Livan, and all are guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation.

When Stephen Strasburg returns in August or September, he'll grab that fifth and final spot.

That means that as of right now, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler, and J.D. Martin--who have all succeeded to some extent at the major league level--don't even have a major league job.

The only way that adding another aging pitcher to the rotation makes sense would be if the Nationals are looking to trade quantity for quality, perhaps moving Lannan and Detwiler as parts of a package for the Royals' Zach Greinke. And if that's not the plan, a young and maturing team doesn't need Livan-1 and Livan-2, i.e. Hernandez and Vazquez.

This is a win-win signing. It's good for the Marlins for getting Javier Vazquez and good for the Nationals for not getting him.

Will Carlos Pena Power Nationals in 2011?

2010-11-26T15:40:00.000-07:00

It seems a near-certainty now that the Adam Dunn era in Washington is over. Several stories are circulating today that the Nationals are hot to sign Tampa's Carlos Pena to upgrade their defense at first.

Though the rumors have persisted this past summer, I really didn't believe them. Pena is older than Dunn and been in an offensive downward spiral since he first burst onto the scene in 2007 when he hit .282-46-121 with a .411 on-base percent for the then Devil Rays.

Since, Pena's average has dropped to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009 and .196 last season. For his career, Pena has averaged .241-35.98 over a 162-game season.

Defensively, Pena is without question an upgrade at first. However, he's a very good--but not great--defender.

If in fact the Nationals sign Pena, it will likely be for no more than two years, perhaps just one with an option to protect the team if he continues to hit below the Mendoza line. Chris Marrero, who has proven he will be a capable-but-not-great major league hitter, could be ready for a major league promotion by next season's All-Star break.

Tyler Moore, who hit .269-31-111 for Class-A Potomac last season, would normally begin next season at Double-A Harrisburg, but for now, Marrero will block him until he is either traded this winter or promoted next summer. Moore has nothing left to prove in Potomac and needs to be challenged by Eastern League pitching.

Should Carlos Pena join the Nationals, the team won't stop there. They will have to add more offense elsewhere and more trades or signings will be in the works. And if the team replaces Dunn because of his defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Josh Willingham and/or Michael Morse are traded along with a few prospects for equal hitters but superior defenders.

For now, I trust Mike Rizzo's decision. There is no way that Pena will hit .196 again, but don't expect more than a .245-30-90 type of production for the 32-year-old left-hander.

Here's hoping ....

J.P. RAMIREZ: LATE ROUND PICK MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN HAGERSTOWN

2010-08-07T14:29:00.000-06:00

Every morning since he was a kid, J.P. Ramirez dragged himself out of bed and headed out to the batting cage, sleep in his eyes and bat in his hand. And every morning, he put the bat on his shoulder and took a deep breath.

And he began to swing.

Over and over, hour after hour, ash met leather. Line drives seared through the morning dew as they tried to escape the confines of the cage.

And he wouldn’t stop.
Over time, the bones in his fingers warped, the result of them being perpetually clamped around his bat.

And he wouldn’t stop.

The skin on Ramirez’ hands calloused to the point of making them almost useless for anything other than swinging his bat.

And still he wouldn’t stop.

He can no longer flatten his hands without a debilitating pain shooting through his knuckles.

And yet he keeps on swinging.

Like a car odometer on a family trip, the swing count spirals upwards.

Two hundred swings. Three hundred. Four hundred.

By his 500th swing, Ramirez is drowning in sweat and comfortable that he had wrung every last ounce of strength from his muscles.

And with that, he would leave the cage and return to the world of a teenager, where school and tests and girls and food and cars occupy his time.

Until the next morning, that is, when he would once again grab his bat, enter the cage, and hit 500 balls as hard as his hurting hands would allow.

This unyielding approach to perfection is what got J.P. Ramirez noticed in his home town of New Braunfels, Texas. He wanted to be not just the best, but the very best baseball player to ever don a Canyon High School jersey.

And to do it, he had to be better than the Yankees’ Lance Berkman, an alum of Canyon High.

It wouldn’t be difficult. All it would take, he thought, was 500 swings a day.

Every day.

The local paper named him the best first-year player in the conference.

And he kept on swinging.

He was named all-state (a big accomplishment in Texas) in his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He was a Louisville Slugger All-American his senior season and a Baseball America second-team All-American.

Canyon coach Pete Garza, who has seen them all come and go since 1968, said recently that Ramirez was simply “..the best I’ve ever coached. As far as work ethic goes, he’s definitely at the top.”

Better than even Lance Berkman.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

The batting cage is in his backyard, and every morning, his neighbors awake to the sound of 500 balls cutting through the humid air, reverberating on their roofs and their garages and their cars.

"For some reason the neighbors don't mind the noise," Mary Ramirez said. "They understand it's J.P. I guess they figured they'd need to get used to it."

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

His father began to take J.P. to the batting cages at the age of four, hitting 75 mph pitches with ease. By seven, he could get around on a 95 mph fastball.

Five hundred swings.

After his amazing high school career, he accepted a scholarship to play baseball for powerhouse Tulane University. Clubs were so sure that he was going to college that no one dared draft him and risk losing their pick.

Except the Washington Nationals, that is, who took Ramirez with their selection in the 15th round in last year’s amateur draft.

Normally, 15th rounder’s get bus fare and a package of Twinkies for signing their contract.

Ramirez got $1.2 million.

Negotiations remained very quiet between the Nationals and Ramirez until it became apparent that the team would not be able to sign top pick Aaron Crow in the waning minutes of the signing period. A quick phone call was all it took. Ramirez was a National.

By way of comparison, Drew Storen, one of the Nationals’ first-round picks in 2009, signed for just $300,000 more than Ramirez, who was drafted 14 rounds later.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

Ramirez arrived in Viera, Florida late in 2008 and played in the nine remaining games for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League rookie team, hitting .407 with a homer and 12 RBI, leading the team to within a game of the GCL Championship.

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

In 2009, the 5’10”, 185 pound Ramirez played for the Vermont Lake Monsters, a low Class-A team in the New York-Penn League, where he faces 20-something college pitchers almost every night.

In 72 games, Ramirez batted .264-4-39 with six steals. Over a full major league season, that would translate into .264-8-78 and a dozen steals, not very good by his standards. He had to get better.

And so he returned home to New Braunfels after the season and took a day or two off. Then one morning, he stood up, walked out to his back-yard batting cage, let the handle of his bat slip into his curled fingers, placed it on his shoulder and took a deep breath.

And he started to swing.

One hundred swings. Two hundred. Three hundred.

Ramirez was promoted to Class-A Hagerstown this season and is currently hitting .283-13-56 (.283-21-84 over a full season). He has improved in almost all eras of his game, both offensively and defensively. He’ll certainly start next season with High-A Potomac and will likely end the season with Double-A Harrisburg.

He has taken a big step towards the major leagues.

And yet, just a few days after the end of the season, when the pain begins to subside in his hands, J.P. Ramirez will wake up early, drag himself out of bed, walk down the stone path towards his batting cage.

He’ll take a deep breath and focus on the pitching machine. And the balls will start flying his way.

One hundred swings. Two hundred …..

JOHN LANNAN TO TAKE STEVEN STRASBURG'S NEXT START

2010-07-30T00:28:00.000-06:00

The Washington Nationals had many options from which to plug the hole in the starting rotation caused by Stephen Strasburg's (hopefully) quick trip to the disabled list.

They chose to go with an old friend, though, former Opening Day starter John Lannan.

Lannan, who was never able to find his way in 2010, was demoted to Double-A Harrisburg after going 2-5, 5.76 in 14 starts.

But he didn't fair much better in his time with the Senators, going 1-4, 4.20 against some of the best prospects in major league baseball.

But it's not like Lannan, 25, has something to prove.

He was one of only seven National League starters to log 30 starts and have an ERA under 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009.

Of all major league starters with at least 70 career starts, he is tied with Josh Beckett for the highest percentage of career quality starts at 60% (a quality start is pitching at least six innings while allowing three runs or less).

In his fourth major league season, Lannan is a veteran and capable of quickly finding the problem that is haunting him this season and fixing it.

He just has to do it.

For the Nationals to take the next step towards respectability, John Lannan has to return to form. When the season started several months back, Lannan was the best pitcher the Nationals had on the major league roster.

But Today, Stephen Strasburg, Ross Detwiler and Scott Olsen will be ahead of him in the rotation. And when Jason Marquis returns--and possibly Chien-Ming Wang--Lannan will find himself as the number-five starter in the rotation.

That assumes that Livan Hernandez is traded in the next few days.

While most of Lannan's problem is mechanical, he seems lost on the mound and unsure of his stuff. What he needs is one or two starts with the Nationals that go smoothly.

Once that happens, Lannan will hopefully again become Washington's "Mr. Dependable."

WILSON RAMOS BRINGS NEW HOPE TO NATIONALS' FUTURE

2010-07-29T23:05:00.000-06:00

Wilson Ramos

The Washington Nationals made a substantive trade Thursday and it had nothing at all to do with Adam Dunn.

Go figure.

The Nationals traded All-Star closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Nationals just got a whole lot better.

Capps, who saved his 25th game on Thursday, has a record of 3-3 with a fine ERA of just 2.80. The 26-year-old has already saved 92 major league games.

But as good as Capps is, he was expendable because bad teams don’t need All-Star closers and his heir apparent, former first-round pick Drew Storen, is pitching even better. Storen is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA, allowing just 7.3 hits per nine-innings while striking out eight.

The Nationals also have several quality relievers currently in the minors to replace him, so the loss of Capps will make minimal difference—if any—for the rest of the season.

And in return they didn’t receive a run-of-the-mill prospect who is usually traded for a rental player.

Wilson Ramos, 22, signed in 2004 with the Twins as an amateur free agent. In five minor league seasons, Ramos has batted .284/.331/.427 with 36 home runs and 211 RBI (which averages out to about 16 homers and 75 RBI over a full minor league season).

Ramos was recalled from Triple-A Rochester earlier this season when Twins catcher Joe Mauer was injured. He batted a solid .296/321/.407 in 27 at-bats. In his first game, he went 4-5, the first Twin to garner four hits in his first game since Kirby Puckett in 1984 and is the only catcher in the modern era to do it.

He returned to the minors when Mauer rejoined the team.

He is a solid defensive catcher, throwing out 43% of would-be base stealers over his minor league career and has a .987 fielding percent over that span.

He has a perfect catcher's build. He hits for a good average and has real home run power. His walk-to-strikeout rate isn’t wonderful, but he is just 22.

Ramos was added to the Twins 40-man roster in 2008 and Aaron Gleeman lists him as the Twins third best prospect. Baseball America has him at number four.

Says baseball insider Keith Law," Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find."

Ramos is considered one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball and the only reason he wasn’t the Twins' Opening Day catcher was due to some guy named Joe Mauer.

He's so good that he was one of two players offered to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee earlier this month.

If Jesus Flores returns, the Nationals will have two good hitting catchers who are both solid defensively. If he doesn’t return, Ramos should become the Nationals starting catcher for years to come.

The Nationals also received minor league pitcher Joe Testa, who in three seasons as a reliever, has gone 10-7, 3.33.

This trade is indicative of a couple of things. First, General Manager Mike Rizzo demands a lot from a potential trade partner but holds firm and gets what he wants.

Secondly, if he can get this kind of return for Capps, imagine what an Adam Dunn trade will bring the Nationals.

I think a Dunn deal is now a matter of when, not if.

Lastly, catcher Derek Norris, one of the Nationals' top prospects, is now expendable and might be packaged in a deal that would bring the Diamondbacks' Edwin Jackson to Washington.

Wow.

The Washington Nationals just got a whole lot better. Thanks, Mike.

PUTTING POTENTIAL ADAM DUNN TRADE IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT

2010-07-28T14:03:00.000-06:00

Catfish Hunter in 1968, Yankee Stadium

ESPN baseball analyst Jayson Stark reported on Wednesday that it is now very likely that the Nationals—who seem unable to come to terms with first baseman Adam Dunn—will now trade him by the July 31st trading deadline.

The possibility of losing their offensive linchpin worries Nationals’ fans and fuels the concern that their team is joining the Pirates and Royals in the never-ending cycle of trading established players for prospects.

The Nationals currently have three options regarding the future of Adam Dunn. They can keep him and sign him to the contract he wants, $60 million over four years. They can trade him now and receive prospects or they can let him leave at the end of the season and receive two compensation picks, a mid-round pick and a supplementary pick following the first round.

Most agree that a four-year contract is too long for the 30-year-old slugger. If he sticks to his demands, the team won’t resign him. And while supplemental picks can bring future stars, the Nationals are not in a position to wait another five or six years for Dunn’s replacements to make an impact at the major league level.

So Jayson Stark is right; it’s highly likely that Dunn’s tenure with Washington is almost at an end.

I know it is difficult to lose a star for prospects that may—or may not—make a difference with the big club. But sometimes, not making a move is the worst possible choice.

The biggest problem is that fans don’t want to break up the heart of the Nationals’ order, one of the best in baseball. Ryan Zimmerman, Dunn and Josh Willingham make up one of the strongest three-four-five trios in all of baseball.

The three players are on track to hit .282-89-283 this year and are the heart of the team. The other five starters are no more than supporting players at best. To lose one, it is feared, would further damage a bad team.

And who knows what the team might get in return, right?

Nationals’ fans born after before 1960 remember the team’s predecessor, the Washington Senators. No team had lost more games in the Sixties and 1969 seemed no different. However, new manager Ted Williams brought some magic to Washington and the team won 86 games, the only time the expansion Senators finished above .500.

They succeeded that year—just like the Nationals—on the strength of their three-four-five hitters. Mike Epstein, Ken McMullen and Frank Howard. Those three combined to hit .282-97-283 in 1969, virtually identical to this season’s big-three (.282-89-283).

And just like this season’s Nationals, the other five starters were average to slightly above-average players.

Following the 1969 season, team owner Bob Short turned down manager Williams’ plea to trade two of the three stars for prospects. It would hurt the team the following year, Williams said, but could make the team contenders as early as 1972.

Short said no. He was unwilling to move his best players.

But what if he had made those trades in the winter of 1969? What if Short had taken a chance and built the Senators then as the Nationals are trying to do now?

In his book, Ted Williams and the 1969 Season, Ted Leavengood listed several trades that were not just rumored but were concrete offers by other teams for several Senators’ players, all turned down by Short.

Mike Epstein was one of the hottest commodities at the 1969 Winter Meetings, and both the Yankees and the Oakland Athletics tried to pry him away from Washington.

The Yankees, seeing the public relations value of having a Jewish slugger on their team—Epstein’s nickname was “SuperJew”—offered lefty Fritz Peterson for the Senators’ slugger. Peterson, just 26, had won 12 games in 1968 and 17 in ’69 with an ERA of just above 3.00.

Bob Short said no.

Peterson finished his career with 133 wins, including 20 in 1970, with a 3.40 ERA.

Athletics’ owner Charley Finley next came calling, offering 23-year-old Catfish Hunter for Epstein, who had already won 55 major league games.

Again, Bob Short said no.

Hunter is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher who won 224 games in his career—including 20 five times—with a 3.26 ERA. He was an eight-time all-star and an ERA champion. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the American League.

The Senators had a young slugger in 1969 by the name of Brant Alyea, who hit 10 home runs in part-time duty by the All-Star break. Though he would hit only one more that year, Calvin Griffith, owner of the Minnesota Twins, was enamored with his good looks and powerful stroke.

He had offered Short third baseman Craig Nettles, who had shown some promise in parts of three major league seasons. Though major league scouts roundly believed that Nettles would one day become an all-star, and though those same scouts saw major flaws in Alyea’s looping swing (think Austin Kearns here), Short said no.

Nettles, in his first full season as a major leaguer, hit 26 homers in 1970 and played defense equal to that of the Orioles’ Brooks Robinson.

In a 22-year career, Nettles hit almost 400 homers, drove in more than 1,300 runs, was a six-time all-star, won multiple Gold Gloves and led the American League in home runs in 1976.

The New York Mets, fresh off their miracle 1969 World Championship season, recognized that they had a problem at third base and saw the Senators' McMullen as their answer.

The Mets offered a variety of packages for McMullen before settling on a two-for-one trade offer that would have brought to Washington relief pitcher Tug McGraw and starter Nolan Ryan.

Bob Short said no.

McGraw—father of Country singer Tim McGraw—had a great year in 1969, going 9-3, 2.24 with 12 saves. Over his career, McGraw won 96 games, saved another 180, had a very solid 3.14 ERA, and was a two-time all-star. He won two World Series, one with the Mets and the other with the Phillies in 1980.

And McGraw was the worst of the two players being dangled by the Mets.

Nolan Ryan won 324 games in an astonishing 27-year career. He was an eight-time all-star, is the all-time leader in strikeouts and is second in career starts.

Oh yes, he’s also thrown seven no-hitters.

In the end, Epstein, McMullen and Alyea were all out of baseball by the mid 1970’s and the Senators ended up moving to Texas following the 1971 season.

But with Catfish Hunter and Nolan Ryan headlining the rotation, and with Tug McGraw in the bullpen, and Graig Nettles at third, the Senators would have begun the process of becoming a contender.

Just like the Senators in 1969, the 2010 Nationals won’t become contenders with nothing more than a strong middle of the lineup. The rest of the team has to get better, and getting two or three prospects that would make an immediate impact makes just too much sense.

And the $15 million that would have gone to Dunn could now go to one or two free agents who, along with the prospects, could turn the Nationals into contenders rather quickly.

I love Adam Dunn. I would greatly miss him. But in the long run, the Nationals needs are just too great for the team to hitch their star to just one, very big, very strong player.

The prospects that the Chicago White Sox are offering, Dan Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks, may not turn out to be the next Graig Nettles, Nolan Ryan and Catfish Hunter.

But they could. And if they did, the Nationals could become a true contender as early as next season.

RUMORS OF AN DUNN FOR JACKSON TRADE ABOUND: DOES IT HELP THE NATIONALS?

2010-07-26T17:34:00.000-06:00

As the trade deadline approaches, it is becoming apparent that Adam Dunn has a better chance to be traded by July 31st then to remain a long-term part of the franchise.

Edwin Jackson Earlier This Season

Rumors abound that he is perturbed at the Nationals’ perceived lack of urgency in getting a contract extension completed and during the second inning of Saturday’s game with the Milwaukee Brewers went upstairs and had an on-air visit with Brewers’ radio man Bob Uecker.

Nationals’ manager Jim Riggleman told reporters that he didn’t want to hear about it and Dunn said on Monday that “I could care less if I get in trouble for going up and seeing my guy after he had heart surgery. I’ll pay my fine.”

It doesn’t sound like things are too copacetic between the team and the first baseman, at least for the moment.

Okay, so the chances of Dunn resigning with the Nationals seem unlikely, leaving the team with two options. They can either trade him between now and Saturday or allow him to leave this winter as a free agent and get two additional draft pick in next summer’s amateur draft.

But really, the Nationals can’t afford to let their highest profile hitter walk away and get back a couple of players who may—or may not—turn into major league players in, oh, I don’t know, four or five years.

No, they need player(s) who can make an immediate contribution.

But is Edwin Jackson that player?

General Manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear for some time that he is a fan of the 27-year-old Jackson, and rumors have swirled on Monday that a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Nationals could bring Jackson to Washington in exchange for Dunn.

It is difficult to determine what a premier slugger is worth in exchange for two months of playing time. The Rangers gave up four minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee for two months, so you would think that Dunn would have similar value.

But teams are unwilling these days to trade away their best prospects for a rental hitter. If the rumors are to be believed, Dunn’s value is a couple of good—but not great—minor leaguers.

So is a Dunn for Jackson swap a good deal for the Nationals?

Jackson was a sixth-round pick of the Dodgers in 2001 and since 2006 has spent time with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Detroit and the Diamondbacks.

His first season as a full-time starter—with Tampa in 2007—was a disaster as Jackson went 5-15, 5.76. He blossomed the next season though, going 14-11, 4.42. He was at his best in 2009 with the Tigers, garnering a record of 13-9, 3.62.

His numbers with Arizona this season haven’t been as good (6-9, 5.01) but his internal numbers match his career marks (9.3/4.0/7.0) so his difficult year may be the product of playing with a bad team, or a run of bad luck, or both.

Jackson has a 95 mph fastball along with a good slider and change. His fastball, though, doesn’t have particularly good movement at times, leading to a higher-than-normal ERA for a pitcher of his caliber. He also walks too many batters.

But he’s just 27 and would be an excellent addition to the Nationals’ growing-by-the-day pitching staff.

Come 2011, the Nationals’ rotation could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson, Cuban defector Yuneski Maya and Jason Marquis, with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Ross Detwiler all fighting to gain a rotation spot as well.

Pretty good, I’d say.

Reports this afternoon suggest that a possible trade for Edwin Jackson would send prospects, and not Adam Dunn, to Arizona.

We’ll know in a few days, but regardless, starting pitching won’t be one of the Nationals’ problems next season.

NATIONALS MUST MOVE THEIR POOR DEFENDERS THIS WEEK AS TRADE DEADLINE LOOMS

2010-07-25T14:16:00.000-06:00

Rickie Weeks launched his 20th home run of the season on Sunday and sent Ross Detwiler to the showers.

Detwiler, in his first start since returning to the major leagues after undergoing hip surgery this spring, pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out four. He allowed five runs.

All unearned.

A Willie Harris first inning miscue and a fourth inning bad throw by Ian Desmond opened the floodgates for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Good baseball teams win with great pitching and stout defense. The Washington Nationals are just a couple of weeks away from transforming their place-holder starting rotation into a quality group that could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Olsen, Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Livan Herandez and--sometime in September--Cuban defector Yuneski Maya.

And though the bullpen has been a little shaky in recent days, is still solid with Sean Burnett, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps.

And though the offense hasn't performed as expected, it is a capable group and certainly good enough to win on most days.

Good enough, that is, if the team could play anything resembling major league defense.

But after allowing the Florida Marlins to tie them for the most errors in the National League this season, the Nationals took the field on Sunday and quickly regained the title with two more errors.

It has become clear that by next season the pitching staff will be able to lead a contending team if they had a solid defensive team behind them. But the Nationals just don't have those type of players. With the possible exception of shortstop Ian Desmond, none of the team's defensive liabilities are going to get better with practice.

They are what they are.

So it's time that the Nationals commit to playing quality defenders.

That means that Adam Dunn has to go. That means that Cristian Guzman needs a new home. Josh Willingham, though he's playing better in the field, is still not a great defender. And though Nyjer Morgan has the speed to make up for many of his mistakes, he just doesn't have the baseball instincts necessary to be an everyday center fielder.

Were Mike Rizzo to use these remaining days before the July 31st trading deadling to trade Dunn, Guzman, Willingham, Morgan as well as closer Matt Capps and starter Livan Hernandez, they could receive a half-dozen or more position players that are ready--or near ready--to shore up the defense.

The Nationals could field a starting eight that might look something like this:

1B-Mike Morse

2B-Adam Kennedy

SS-Alberto Gonzalez

3B-Ryan Zimmerman

LF-Willie Harris

CF-Roger Bernadina

RF-Justin Maxwell

C-Pudge Rodriguez & Wil Nieves

Though Maxwell hasn't hit well at the major league level this season, he has in the past and is an excellent fielder. And the time has come for the Ian Desmond experiment to end, at least at the major league level. If he is going to make 35 errors a season, let him do it in the minors.

Two or three of those prospects received in possible trades this week would be ready to take over next season. Also, there are several free agents who will be available this winter who could help fill out the 2011 roster.

I'm tired of watching this team stumble and bumble in the field. I'd much rather watch them lose 2-1 than 5-4. The Nationals' pitching is ready to contend. But unless their defense is as good as their pitching, it will be just another long year in Washington next season.