Thursday, January 29, 2009

Strasburg Ready For the Major Leagues & Nationals Know It

Steven Strasburg was just a month into his sophomore season at San Diego State University. Though he had a superb freshman year with the Aztecs, Strasburg had been the team’s closer and wasn’t generally well known around the baseball world.

But now he was a starter, and was no longer cloaked in baseball invisibility.


A week earlier, the 19-year-old took a perfect game into the 7th inning against TCU before settling on a one-hitter while striking out 13.


Two weeks earlier, Strasburg struck out 23 Utah Utes while facing the minimum 27 batters, again giving up just one lonely hit.


And now thousands of fans had packed San Diego’s Tony Gwynn Stadium, but they weren’t there to watch the Aztecs play another little known Mountain West Conference foe.


They were there to watch Steven Strasburg.


Behind him was a young fan taping a giant “K” to the outfield fence each time Strasburg fanned a batter. In front of him was a buxom co-ed, sitting behind home plate, rocking side to side, holding a large white sign above her head.


“Yo mama let u date?”


No longer was Steven Strasburg just a tall, gangly kid from suburban San Diego who was playing his favorite sport solely for the love of the game.


He was now a hot commodity, someone who would likely be worth in upwards of $10 million dollars within a year, and certainly a major league pitcher by the time he was 21.


His buddies and girl friends were now being pushed aside by financial advisers, investment counselors, and hangers-on.


The sophomore had a posse.


And Scott Boras' claws were already deep into the young pitcher's future.


“With the first pick in the 2009 Major League Baseball amateur draft, the Washington Nationals select San Diego State University pitcher Steven Strasburg.”


Forget about it. It’s a done deal.


Well, of course there is a small chance that something will happen and Strasburg won’t be the Nationals’ pick, but it would have to involve things like prison or space aliens.


Steven Strasburg is that good.


There was never a question that Strasburg was going to be a special ball player.


He had a 1.68 ERA in his senior year of high school, striking out 74 batters in 62 innings. He threw seven complete games in his senior year alone, an unheard of number for a high school player.


He could have played college ball anywhere he wanted. His arm was recruited by most schools in the west and his mind was recruited by Stanford and the Ivy League schools in the east.


But in the end, he chose San Diego State, his hometown school and his parent's alma mater.


And having the chance to be coached by Tony Gwynn certainly helped.


A starter in high school, Strasburg was converted into the Aztec’s closer his freshman year.

He was solid in that role but was short of dominant, going 1-3, 2.43 in 25 appearances. He allowed just four hits per nine innings, struck out 11 per nine and allowed less than one base runner per inning. His batting-average-against was a minuscule .143.


The only real chink in Strasburg’s armor in 2007 was his control; he allowed almost four walks per nine innings.


Strasburg was named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year.


He was moved into the starting rotation prior to the start of 2008, and the rest, as they say, is history.


Strasburg went 8-3, 1.57 as a sophomore. He allowed just five hits per nine innings (6th best in the nation), upped his strikeouts to 12 per nine and lowered his walks to just one per nine.


His batting-average-against was .136, one of the very best in America.


He was named the Mountain West Conference pitcher of the week seven times, including five weeks in a row.


In two seasons, pitching against major college competition, Strasburg gave up just one home run.


Wow.


And then he got even better.


He pitched in an exhibition against Team USA and allowed no hits while striking out seven in three innings.


Playing for Team USA, Strasburgwent 4-0, 0.88, striking out 62 and walking seven in 47 innings. He pitched in the Olympics and finished with a 2.45 ERA, pitching against both the Chinese and the Cubans.


He was the only amateur on a team full of professionals.


Do I need to go on?


Yes, I believe I do.


Lincoln Hamilton, a writer for projectprospect.com, listed Seven Strasburg as the best college pitcher in more than a decade.


Well, Strasburg or Mark Prior. He just can't decide which is the more complete package.


Either way, he's in elite company. He includes Strasburg in a select group that includes Tampa's David Price, San Francisco's Tim Lincecum, Los Angeles' Jared Weaver, Cleveland's Kerry Wood and Prior.


When compared to the top college pitchers of all time (per Hamilton), Strasburg has the lowest WHIP, the lowest home runs allowed per nine innings, the third best strikeouts per nine and the second lowest walks per nine within the group.


So why is Steven Strasburg so good?


Because he can make a baseball dance.


His fastball touches 99 mph and cruises at 96-97 mph during a game. But that’s not his strikeout pitch. His slider looks just like his fastball but dies late and ends up in the catcher’s mitt before the batter realizes what he saw.


Strasburg’s best pitch (how can a 99 mph fastball not be his best pitch?) is “plus-plus” breaking ball that has a two plane break.


Bats just can’t seem to find it.


Thebaseballcube.com has a unique scouting system that places a hard number on predetermined statistical categories. For pitchers, they use control, strikeouts and efficiency.


Johan Santana, perhaps the best pitcher in the major leagues since 2003, has the following scouting numbers (based on a 1-100 scale): control: 85, strikeouts: 95, efficiency: 98.


Take a look at Strasburg's numbers: control: 96, strikeouts: 100, efficiency: 100.


Hmmmm.


Now, I'm not saying Strasburg will be as successful as Santana at the major league level. I am saying, though, that Strasburg has the talent to be even better than Santana.


But there has to be drawbacks, right? I mean, all pitchers have drawbacks.


Well, no. Not really. But there might be.


His mechanics are a concern.


His elbow is positioned farther back then one would like during the “scap-load” phase of his delivery. This places too much stress on his arm and could lead to the same type of troubles that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have had.


There is also too much recoil in his follow through and he completes his delivery standing up.

This may indicate that Strasburg, like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior before him, may have problems keeping his arm sound and strong.


The problem is that no one dares tinker with the premier pitcher in college today. Nationals' fans know that Ross Detwiler's troubles this past year were a direct result of the team changing his mechanics, hoping to prevent him from damaging his arm early in his career.


Would the Nationals retard Strasburg's growth in the short term for his long term success?


I don't know. I hope not.


Those questions not withstanding, pitchers like Steven Strasburg come along once every decade or so. There is a chance that he’ll develop arm trouble later in his career, but it’s a chance the Nationals must take.


And let’s not forget that the chance of the team holding on to Strasburg once he is a free agenct is almost zero.


Scott Boras is his agent, after all.


Memo to Washington Nationals: Draft Strasburg with your number one pick in June and then hand a blank check to Scott Boras and bend over.


Having not signed Aaron Crow last year, Boras knows that it would be a public relations nightmare for the team not to sign Strasburg and sign him quickly.


From a dollars perspective, it's going to get ugly.


Once signed, give Strasburg a plane ticket to Washington and put him in the starting rotation.

Forget about his delivery. Forget about the future. Wind him up and point him towards the mound and watch the wins pile up.


With Steven Strasburg, the Washington Nationals could actually have one of the strongest rotations in the National League in just a year or so.


Scott Olsen and John Lannanhave already had success at the major league level and both will be just 25 during the 2009 season. Jordan Zimmermann has the chance to be a true No. 1 starter, and Strasburg is a No. 1 starter.


That leaves one spot in the rotation, and the Nationals have several young pitchers able to fill it. Whether it's Shairon Martis , Collin Balester, Colton Willems, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, Matt Chico, or Tyler Clippard filling that spot, the Nationals will have five special arms in the rotation for the first time.


Ever.

"The Plan" is less than a year away from finally leaving the station, and Steven Strasburg will be the engineer driving that train.

And watch out: Strasburg won't be stopping for disbelievers.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

McGeary Leaves Stanford, Becomes Full Time Prospect

He was ranked as the 17th best player in the 2007 Major League amateur draft, and most every scouting magazine and website listed him as a sure first-round pick. He had prepped at the exclusive Roxbury Latin High School in Newton, Mass., indicating he was as intelligent as he was athletic.

And he's a very good looking guy to boot. He looks like a star pitcher.

In his senior year, he struck out 80 in just 40 innings and crafted a misprint-like 0.88 ERA.

He was named the Massachusetts Gatorade player of the year.

He spent his off-seasons playing in all-star leagues in Georgia and Arkansas and Florida and wowed the major league scouts with pinpoint control and three "plus" pitches, very unusual for a 17-year-old high school pitcher.

He had a fastball that topped out at 91 mph and a solid change as well. But it was his curveball that made scouts drool.

Knees buckled all across the state of Massachusetts when he took the mound.

During an All-Star game in Georgia, a major league scout was asked by a Sports Illustrated reporter if the kid reminded him of any major league pitchers he had seen play.

The scout leaned up against the batting cage and began to tap his chin with his finger, trying to think of an answer.

He finally nodded his head and said, sure, "Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, and Tom Glavine."

That's very good company.

Another scout said this about the young pitcher: "This kid is very poised, polished and advanced for his age. Many young prospects have good arms but are still just young kids.

"He is a young man who shows command of not only pitches but of himself. He is an excellent representation of his family, his school, his team and his community. He will be a success in more than just baseball. He is a true leader. It will be fun to follow his progress in either college or pro ball."

And with that, Jack McGeary was selected in the 6th round of the 2007 Major League draft.

The 190th player taken.

How could that happen?

Because Jack McGeary was too smart and too good and too honest.

Throughout his senior year, the 6'3", 200 pound lefty warned every major league team that he was almost certain that he would be attending Stanford that fall.

"I want to go to Stanford, that's my first choice," said McGeary. "I'm willing to sign a major league contract, but the team is going to have to make it worth my while."

Unlike many high school players with tiny GPA's and big egos who might have a hard time getting into junior college, McGeary was an Ivy League candidate.

It wasn't a bargaining chip. He wanted to go to Stanford.

Well, it was a bargaining chip, but one that teams had to take seriously.

Round after round, all 30 teams passed up Jack McGeary. After the fifth round, Nationals' general manager Jim Bowden, who knew he had already amassed quite a haul in the draft, decided to take a chance and drafted the Massachusetts native with his 6th round pick.

The prospect of losing that sixth-round pick didn't worry Bowden very much. The chance of finding a player that would help the Nationals that low in the draft was minimal.

From 1995 through 2004, just 60 of the 300 players selected in the sixth round made it to the Major Leagues, and just five (Tim Hudson, Bill Hall, J.J. Putz, Shane Victorino and Scott Olsen) have had any real impact at the major league level.

Bowden didn't think there was much hope in signing McGeary. He had tried the same approach with pitcher Sean Black in the previous year's draft and came away empty-handed.

"Look, he's probably going to Stanford," Bowden told Nationals.com reporter Bill Ladson on the day of the draft. "We know that. But you never know in this game. We didn't do this except for one pick in this draft. Strategically, we thought it was the right thing to do. We drafted him just in case."

When Bowden contacted the family, they indicated two things. First, McGeary would be willing to sign with the Nationals. Second, it would have to be first-round money for it to happen.

That's not how things work in Major League Baseball.

Each round has a predetermined bonus amount that teams are bullied into staying within. To be sure, some teams don't, but most teams do.

The Lerner family was still feeling their way as the new owners of the Washington Nationals, and likely didn't want to risk angering Commissioner Bud Selig so early in their tenure.

And the McGeary family knew it.

"We were all set for him to go to Stanford," Rita McGeary said by phone. "We weren't even thinking about the Nationals. We just thought, 'They're not going to pay him. It wasn't so much what Jack was worth. It's really what Stanford was worth."

And said McGeary, "The Nationals still took me and still believe that hopefully, we can work something out. If we can, that would be great and I welcome the opportunity to do that. If not, I'll end up in Stanford. Obviously. I was surprised that I was taken as high as sixth. I thought I would be falling in the teens or 20s."

And so for the remainder of the summer, nothing happened.

Nothing.

Until 48 hours before the Aug. 15 signing deadline, that is. Bowden called the family and told them he had a plan. They arrived from Newton the next day and met with the Nationals' general manager in a steak house in the city.

While Bowden was laying out his proposal to the McGeary family, team president Stan Kasten flew to the owners meeting in Toronto to get the Lerners' approval.

It was ingenious.

The Nationals would sign McGeary and give him $1.8 million, close enough to first round money to make the family happy but well above the $123,000 recommended by Major League Baseball for the sixth round. The Nationals would also pay for his expenses at Stanford and would agree to allow him to pitch only when his schooling would allow.

That meant he would only be available from June through the end of the season. He would lose four months each year.

The McGearys were impressed and agreed. The Lerners were impressed and they also agreed.

And with 15 minutes to spare, Jack McGeary became a Washington National.

He pitched only two innings in 2007 for the Vermont Lake Monsters of the New York-Penn League before beginning his academic career at Stanford.

He pitched most of 2008 for the Gulf Coast Nationals, a "low-A" league that more resembles a baseball academy than a professional league. He started off slowly, and by mid-season, it was beginning to look like the experiment wasn't going to work.

Then all of a sudden, McGeary figured it out.

He ended the year with a record of 2-2, 4.07, but those numbers don't tell the real story. He led the league in games started. He led the league in strikeouts. He struck out nearly 10 per 9 innings while walking just two, amazing numbers for that level of play.

He consistently painted the black with his fastball and buckled the batters knees time and time again with his major-league-ready curve.

He looked promising. Very promising.

And he did this without the benefit of any Spring Training in 2008.

And then he went back to Stanford for his sophomore season.

Baseball America ranked McGeary as the Nationals' fifth-best prospect heading into 2009, but he would no doubt have been much higher had he pitched a full season in 2007 and 2008.

But how long could Jack McGeary be both a full-time college student and a full-time baseball player and still keep his wits about him?

Turns out, about two years.

Nationals' GM Jim Bowden announced on Saturday that Jack McGeary's agent told the team that he was forgoing the remainder of his college career (at least for now) and will concentrate on baseball full-time.

Boo-yah!

This will most certainly accelerate his progression through the Nationals' farm system. When asked how long it would take to reach the major leagues when he originally signed with the Nationals, McGeary replied that he thought it would take five years.

He might be able to shave a year off of that prediction now, maybe more.

The kid has the same arrows in his quiver that Tom Glavine did when he was a Massachusetts high schooler 20 years earlier.

Only McGeary's curve is a little better.

That doesn't mean he'll be the next Tom Glavine. It just means he has the chance to be a very good major league pitcher in the mold of Tom Glavine.

And he would never have been a Washington National if Jim Bowden had not been the general manager of the Washington Nationals.

I wrote an article a few days ago blaming Omar Minaya for the current state of the team. Many readers left comments questioning this premise.

Some called Bowden as the worst general manager in the major leagues today.

Hmmm.

Well, Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, Andy McPhail, Andrew Friedman, J.P. Riccardi, Frank Wren, Mike Hill, Ruben Amaro Jr., Kenny Williams, Mark Shapiro, Dave Dombrowski, Dayton Moore, Bill Smith, Jim Hendry, Walt Jockety, Ed Wade, Doug Melvin, Neal Huntington, John Mozeliak, Tony Reigans, Billy Beane, Jack Zduriencik, Jon Daniels, Josh Byrnes, Dan O'Dowd, Ned Colletti, Kevin Towers and Brian Sabean (or their predecessors) had the opportunity to take Jack McGeary in a later round and become a hero to their fans. They didn't.

Jim Bowden did.

Jim Bowden stole a first-round pick in 2007, taking a very mature, very intelligent, very promising pitcher that the team really had no hope of drafting, little alone signing.

Jim Bowden didn't sign Aaron Crow, a very immature pitcher who in an interview this past summer with Kansas City Star reporter Bill Reiter said that he was spending his days sleeping in and drinking beer. He worked out in between.

Contrast that with Jack McGeary who studied when he wasn't working out and worked out when he wasn't studying.

Jack McGeary accepted $1.8 million to sign with the Nationals, calling it first-round money. Aaron Crow turned down twice that amount, calling it an affront to his ability.

So why are so many Nationals' fans pummeling Jim Bowden for not signing Aaron Crow but nary a word comes from their lips about one of the real steals in the amateur draft in the last decade?

I'm sure someone will try to explain it to me.

Again.

Until then, however, the Nationals' future just got a little brighter.

And we can thank Jim Bowden, "the worst general manager in baseball," for it

Sunday, January 18, 2009

JUSTIN MAXWELL IS "THIS CLOSE" TO MAKING IT

There is no question that the Washington Nationals drafted a player in the major league 2005 amateur draft who could become a key player in the team's long-term future.

It may come as a surprise, however, that the "key" player might not be Ryan Zimmerman.

After selecting Zimmerman with the fourth overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, the Washington Nationals had to wait until the fourth round to make their next selection.

The Nationals' second round selection went to the Colorado Rockies for the team's signing of third baseman Vinny Castilla, and the third round pick went to the Minnesota Twins for their loss of free agent Cristian Guzman.

Daniel Carte, the player the Rockies selected, has averaged .265-15-80 over a full season in the minor leagues. Pitcher Brian Duensing, selected by the Twins, has a minor league record of 29-30, 3.47, pitching a 'AAA' Rochester the past two seasons.

The Nationals chose Justin Maxwell with the team's second overall pick, taken in the 4th round of the draft.

Maxwell, who graduated from the University of Maryland this spring, had rebuffed the team's efforts to sign him because of the contract's structure and not its financial considerations.

Team officials described the negotiations as "amicable." My guess is the contract addressed his injury plagued seasons of 2004 and 2005 with the Terrapins.

Injuries robbed Maxwell of what would have been a sure first round selection. An inside fastball during spring practice in 2004 broke a bone in his forearm which forced him to miss the entire season.

He tried to play in the Cape-Cod League that summer but broke a finger there, effectively finishing his year.

Seven games into his final college season, he broke a bone in his hand, ending his amateur career. He didn't play professionally in 2004, using the rest of the year to regain his health.

Maxwell has been a star at every level he has played. He played in the Cape-Cod League in 2004 and hit .307 with 47 hits and 2 home runs.

In his abbreviated 2005 season at Maryland, the 6'5", 220 lb outfielder batted .455 with 3 home runs and 10 RBI's. His talent was well known to most scouts and general managers in the major leagues.

He was drafted in 2001 by the Orioles, and again in 2004 by the Rangers.

Scout Grady Fuson called Maxwell "one of the top college players" in 2004, and said that Maxwell "could very well be one of our most important selections in some time."

Maxwell didn't sign with the Rangers.

Maxwell is both powerful and fast, and is often compared to former Met great Daryl Strawberry.

His swing has a high arc, allowing him to not only drive balls, but drive them very high and very deep.

Defensively, he is major league ready today, according to a scout from the Orioles organization.

While his physical tools might be compared to Strawberry, his personality is more like Cal Ripken, which is good for him and great for the organization.

Sean Welsh, GM of the Bourne Braves, a summer-league team Maxwell played for two seasons ago, said that he's as apt to be reading his Bible in the clubhouse as he is sanding his bats in preparation for the next day's game.

In four minor league seasons, Maxwell has averaged .263-23-90 with 41 steals over a 500 at-bat season. He has a career .354 OBP and a .462 slugging percent.

The man can hit.

His Thebaseballcube.com scouting numbers are very impressive as well. These are based on a maximum of 100 points: Power:93, Speed:91, Contact:22, Patience:76.

He compares favorably to Alfonso Soriano in power (94), speed (94), and patience (13). Soriano is just a bit better in making contact (31).

Maxwell received a September call-up in 2007, and impressed, batting .269 with two home runs, one a grand slam, in just 26 at-bats. He just missed a third homer that reached the fence in the deepest part of RFK Stadium's massive outfield.

The concern with Maxwell is his health.

At times, he reminds Nationals' fans of Nick Johnson, which is not a good thing. In 2008, Maxwell played just 43 games for 'AA' Harrisburg before a hand and wrist injury ended his season.

If he can stay healthy, and if he gets enough at-bats in the minor leagues, Justin Maxwell should become a solid major league outfielder in 2010 or 2011.

But he'll be 25 in 2009 and will still be at the 'AA' level. He'll need to finish the year at 'AAA' Syracuse to be young enough to be considered a real prospect in 2010.

If he stays healthy, he'll be a 20-20 type player for a decade.

The question is, will he remain healthy?

And the jury is out on that, at least for another year.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

ELIJAH DUKES: BAD MAN OR BAD CHILDHOOD?

It's open season on Elijah Dukes.

Again.

Other than a couple of very minor skirmishes last season, Dukes has kept his head down and his temper in check since joining the Nationals.

Now, a Tampa judge has threatened him with jail time if he doesn't pay more than $40,000 in back alimony and child support.

Dukes' lawyer said that the outfielder will comply with the order.

Nationals' general manager Jim Bowden said the team had known about the situation prior to acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays last year for pitching prospect Glen Gibson, and that they were working with Dukes to resolve the situation.

In other words, there isn't a story here.

And yet, you can't visit an Internet sports site without being bombarded with stories about Elijah Dukes being in trouble again.

To be sure, Dukes has brought this feeding frenzy upon himself. As Dr. Phil would say, the best predictor of future actions are past actions.

In other words, the sports world is watching Elijah Dukes very closely, waiting for him to fail because they expect him to fail.

Perhaps they even want him to fail.

But it's easy to kick a man when he's down, and it's even easier to lament past problems when context is lost in the vacuum of bias.

There is no question that Elijah Dukes has done some very stupid things. The question, though, is why did he do them?

Dukes was eight years old and living in the poorest part of Homestead Florida when Hurricane Andrew leveled his city. The family salvaged just two family photographs and a small radio.

The radio was stolen the next day.

The family moved to Tampa but found it difficult to find good housing, in part because of limited resources, in part because of the influx of displaced Floridians due to the hurricane.

The home was in the worst part of town, surrounded by drug dealers and prostitutes.

Young Elijah was 9-years-old.

Mother Phyllis began buying and selling crack cocaine-she says she never actually used it-for her friends and neighbors to enjoy.

One night, she accused a drug dealer of selling her counterfeit crack.

Elijah Dukes Sr. took a gun and pushed the muzzle deep into the man's chest.

He pulled the trigger and became a murderer.

On his way out of the courtroom and into prison, a crying Elijah tried to touch his father as he walked past him, but was kept away by a police officer.

And his grief turned to anger.

It was just a few months later that Dukes was first arrested, at the age of 13, for assault and battery.

All too often, Elijah, now a teenager, would come home to find the power turned off and the refrigerator empty.

"I'm going to become a professional athlete," Elijah said. The family needed money.

He excelled in both football and baseball. He was named the best athlete in Florida and USA Today called him "the best two-way athlete in the country."

That didn't stop him from attending four Tampa high schools in four years. He just kept wearing out his welcome.

He was offered many football scholarships and signed a national letter of intent with Chuck D'Amato and North Carolina State University.
Author Poll Results

Will Elijah Dukes ever reach his potential?

In the end, though, he chose baseball and the quicker payday, receiving a $505,000 bonus as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' 3rd round selection in the 2002 draft.

In each of his first six professional seasons, Dukes was suspended at least once.

After receiving a harsh critique from Duram Bulls' hitting coach Richie Hebner, Dukes choked him with both hands, raising him a good two inches off the ground.

Rays' cather Shawn Riggans saw Elijah's temper flare over and over during their time in the minors. He was one of the few who didn't blame Dukes for his actions.

"You and I would not do well there," Riggans noted. "Nobody knows what it was like for him." When asked his opinion about Dukes the baseball player, Riggans searched for a moment and said, "If he can focus himself on the field, there aren't many other players like him."

Hebner wasn't as kind. "He'll snap in a minute" the former Pirate told ESPN.com, adding, "a new team or a new stadium won't change that."

Another Rays' farmhand, Ryan Knox, saw Dukes' temper up close and personal. In 2004, Knox was Elijah's third roommate in three months. At first, they got along fine with Knox even considering Dukes a friend.

Then one day, the bright-eyed and affable Dukes suddenly turned dour and sour and cold. Things got so bad that a maid in the hallway hid for her life and fellow teammates scurried for cover.

Knox didn't move fast enough. Like Hebner before him, Knox felt the full strength of Dukes' hands begin to choke off his air supply.

"Knox, I'm done with you" was all Dukes would say. "With him, it was kill or be killed" noted Knox."

But his talent cast a giant shadow on his personality flaws, and he was soon in the major leagues.

In his first major league at-bat, Dukes lofted a deep home run into deep center field in Yankee Stadium off of Carl Pavano. He then duplicated the feat the next day.

While he was still a part of the Tampa organization, no one would say a cross word about Elijah Dukes, probably out of fear. But now that he's a Washington National, they are a little more willing to talk.

"That wasn't a fun year, and that's all I have to say about that," says Red Sox catcher Kevin Cash, who played for the Bulls in 2006.

And Rays' manager Joe Maddon said that a weight has been lifted with Dukes gone: "It feels a whole lot better here."

Dukes isn't a sweet man and has a rap sheet that would make a career criminal blush.

Since 2003:

Shortly after his first child was born, he was arrested for throwing a remote control at his girlfriend. He was arrested for obstruction of a police officer. He was arrested for battery. He was arrested for battery again. He was arrested for choking one of his girl friends. He was arrested for possession of marijuana.

There was a 17-year-old girl living with his grand-mother. He got her pregnant. He threw a bottle of Gatorade at her when he found out he was going to have his fifth child with his fourth girlfriend.

You get the idea.

Since the trade to Washington, Dukes' attitude has been "good enough." Oh sure, he got in trouble while playing winter ball in 2007, and he had a stare-down with Mets' pitcher Mike Pelfrey, and he and Nationals' manager Manny Acta had a heated discussion one summer evening.

But compared to his first six seasons, it was a walk in the park. Though he had an early season injury that robbed him of his power, Dukes still had an solid offensive year, batting .264-13-44 in just 276 at-bats.

Are his troubles over? No.

Should he be held accountable for his actions? Yes.

But we should also have some empathy for the man. How many of us-having grown up in the same circumstances-would have done any better? Without proper role models, surrounded by people who didn't give a damn, forced into crime to surive, would we have become the person we are today?

I don't know.

I do know, though, that Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett are also graduates of Dukes' Hillsborough High School.

Similar personalities. Similar attitudes. Similar problems.

Nuture or nature?

Coming out of that same quagmire of hopelessness, Dukes' younger brother Tyrone just graduated from Albany State University in Georgia with a degree in business.

Was Tyrone the exception? The rule?

Again, I don't know.

But that's the point.

None of us know.

And until we do, we should -in the words of my favorite preacher-hate the sin but love the sinner. We should hate those things that Elijah Dukes has done but love Elijah Dukes and root for him to succeed.

And not to fail.

Hasn't he earned that by now?

Funny sidebar to this story: As I was researching newspaper articles about Dukes for this story, I came across three stories about "Elijah Dukes" that drew my attention: From the Washington Post, July 16th 1906: "Elijah Dukes recently had his eighteenth child, all with the same mother." (the number of children fits, but not the number of moms).

From the San Antonio Light, August 15th 1949: "Elijah Dukes came off second best in an altercation with a woman over ownership of a hairbrush, police said Monday. Dukes, stabbed twice in the chest with a pair of scissors, was treated and released at Baptist Memorial Hospital." Well, it would have made more sense if it was Dukes doing the stabbing.

But wait .... there's more.

From the San Antonio Light, May 23rd, 1966: "A San Antonio woman was in fair condition Monday at the Baptist Memorial hospital after suffering multiple stab wounds Sunday night. Elijah Dukes, 42, was arrested for assault to murder in connection with the stabbing." Maybe it's the name?