Wednesday, December 29, 2010

If Nationals Can't Sign Any More "Big Names," 2011 Should Be Used To Prepare For Contention in 2012


Adam LaRoche: He Just Won't Sign
It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

Chris Marrero Just Can't Field
The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal leadoff hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.


Milone: Could Be Much Better Than John Lannan

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

Kimball:  Brooklyn Tenacity to DC
C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

Friday, December 24, 2010

ZACK GREINKE COULD BE ANOTHER FELIPE LOPEZ FOR BREWERS AND THAT AINT GOOD

Zack Greinke got his “Welcome to Milwaukee” press conference yesterday and he seemed genuinely happy to be there. He had made it very clear over the past year or so that he wanted to play for a winner and now he has his wish.

I don’t have a problem with Greinke wanting to play for a winner and eventually forcing his trade; over the years, many star players were stuck on bad teams and several ultimately demanded a trade to get the chance to win.

I get it.

But none of those players gave up on his team because they were losers. None of them saw their numbers decline because they couldn’t give their all for a losing team.

Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009 was special. He went 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, striking out almost 10 batters per game while walking just two. And over the first two months of last season, he continued pitching at that same level.

But by June, he was starting to give up chunks of runs and he seemed less focused. His September ERA was 5.92 and he began to look like he didn’t care.

A year earlier, he told the Kansas City press, “I don’t want to play anywhere else,” but by the end of last season he switched agents so that his trade could come quicker. There were grumblings all summer that he had just given up.

Felipe Lopez: That Didn't Work Out Well

Marc Serota/Getty Images If this is true—and I have no verifiable proof to that end—why would Brewers’ players want him on their team? And certainly, Nationals fans would have had mixed feelings about the acquisition of Greinke because of their experience with a player who not too long ago dogged it for two seasons in Washington.

I was stunned when the Nationals obtained Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in a multi-player trade four years ago. They gave up just two relievers and a couple of utility players.

Kearns was a rising star who had averaged .265-25-95 over a 162-game season to that point in his career. His difficulties since, though, had nothing to do with desire.

Lopez, however, is another story.

He made it clear that he wasn’t happy with the trade that brought him to Washington, but he was a professional and I believed the attitude wouldn’t affect his performance.
Over his first five major league seasons, Lopez averaged .260-18-72 over 162 games and batted .291-23-85 the year before the trade. He was on his way to a similar season when he was shipped to Washington in early summer.

In 2007, his only complete season with the Nationals, Lopez batted .245/.308/.352 with nine homers and 50 RBI. At the time of his release the following year (at the trade deadline), Lopez was batting .234/.305/.314.

Austin Kearns: He Gave The Nationals 100%

Christian Petersen/Getty Images That’s pretty bad.

The Cardinals signed him shortly after his release, and in 156 at-bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with four homers and 21 RBI. That’s twice as many homers and runs batted in with the Cardinals in half the at-bats.

That’s pretty good.

Since then, Lopez has batted .280/.351/.392 for the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Brewers and Red Sox, averaging 10 home runs and 60 RBI.

So in the five seasons before playing for the Nationals, he was a solid offensive shortstop. And in the two-plus years after leaving the Nationals, Lopez was a solid offensive shortstop.

But in parts of three seasons with the Nationals, he sucked big-time.

The only difference was that he didn’t want to play in Washington. And because of that, he didn’t give his teammates 100 percent.

Oh, I don’t think he realized that is what he was doing. I’m sure that in his mind, he was playing as hard as ever.

But he wasn’t.

The same thing applies to Zack Grienke: He was Cy Young himself when he felt content, but the moment he was someplace he didn’t want to be, he became the most mortal of pitchers. Beginning in June last season, his ERA was 4.92. He gave up four or more runs in 11 of his last 21 starts.

For four months, he was just another pitcher.

If the Brewers play well next season, Greinke stands a good chance of winning another Cy Young award. Over the last five seasons, he has a 3.32 ERA, which translates to about 2.82 in the National League.

He’ll be dominant.

But what if the Brewers aren’t in a pennant race? How long will it take before he loses focus and his numbers again become mediocre? Will he ask—once again—to be traded to a contender?

Zack Greinke, Felipe Lopez or any one player just isn’t worth it.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

ZACH GREINKE TOO MUCH LIKE J.D. MARTIN TO BE WORTH FOUR PROSPECTS

Now, don't everyone gang up on me. I'm just thinking out loud for a minute.

Since the end of the season, the Washington Nationals have been chasing a bevy of top-flight starting pitchers including the Royals' Zach Greinke. The 26-year-old is so good that the asking price for the former Cy Young Award winner is four top prospects.

And that's the starting point.

The Royals have been clear as to the type of players they would want in return. From the Nationals, they would want a replacement starting pitcher (possibly John Lannan, but probably Jordan Zimmermann), a middle infielder (most definitely Ian Desmond), a major league outfielder (Roger Bernadina and/or Mike Morse), a catcher (Wilson Ramos because Derrek Norris is still two years away) and a lower-level minor league outfielder, perhaps someone like Eury Perez.

I doubt they would take Lannan, who is a good number-three starter, but just a number three. Jordan Zimmermann is a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter but with Stephen Strasburg on the mend, he'll slide down to the two-spot next season.

Though he is considered one of baseball's best pitchers, Greinke has had only one outstanding season. In 2009, he was Cy Young himself, going 16-8, 2.16. Very impressive, indeed.

But in his other six seasons, from 2004 to 2008, and 2010, Greinke pitched well but wasn't a star. He gave no indication that he could carry a team in a pennant race.

Zach Greinke: 5.80 ERA in 2005

The Nationals have on their roster a pitcher who has done fairly well in parts of two seasons in Washington. J.D. Martin is a former first-round pick and has produced as a minor-league free agent who made it to the majors without his 96 mph fastball.

Let's compare Greinke's numbers (all except those from that magical 2009 season) and compare it to Martin's efforts, both based a full 162-game season:

Greinke 10-13, 4.25, 9.6/3.4/7.4, 1.35 Whip (base runners per inning)

Martin 9-13, 4.13, 10.2/2.5/4.9 1.34 Whip

To be fair, Greinke's sample is six times larger than Martin's and I am in no way suggesting that they are equals when on a major league mound. That said, the internal numbers aren't that different. Greinke gives up fewer hits but walks more batters. Their base runners allowed per inning is almost identical. And Martin's ERA is a little lower as well.

I didn't include Greinke's Cy Young Award season in his career numbers because I am not sure that he can ever duplicate it. In that one season, he allowed 1.4 fewer hits and .3 walks per nine-innings while striking out 2.1 more batters. His ERA was 1.66 runs lower than his career average.

Last season, all of his internal numbers returned to career form and his ERA was the highest its been since 2005.
It seems like the Royals want four or five prospects for a pitcher that doesn't exist. They are negotiating a trade for the 2009 Greinke who may never, probably will never, return.

Matt Garza of Tampa Bay, whose asking price is probably half that of Zach Greinke, has very similar career numbers. Let's compare them based on a 162-game season:

Garza: 12-13, 3.97, 8.7/3.2/7.1, 1.31 Whip

Greinke: 11-12, 3.82, 9.1/2.3/7.6, 1.36 Whip

Both players are 26-years-old, both players allow about the same number of base runners per game, and both players average about the same number of wins per season.

Garza hasn't had that really special season like Greinke but neither has he totally bombed (Greinke went 5-17, 5.80 in 2005).

I don't understand all the love for Greinke. One season does not a career make. If the Nationals really want to trade for a pitcher, let it be Garza. He's just as good as Greinke and can be had for much less.

And really, how much better would either of them be over a full season than J.D. Martin, at least based on past history? If they all start the same number of games, I'd say four or five games.

Is the $12 or $13 million in additional payroll costs worth four or five games next season?

Perhaps 2011 should be the last season that the Nationals can afford to look closely at pitchers like J.D. Martin, guys who aren't great but can do quality work from the back of the rotation.

Martin is capable of a 10-10, 4.10 type of season, the kind of pitching most good teams have at the back of the rotation.

Forget Greinke, consider Garza, and give Martin a try. That's my take, anyway.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

FORGET THE PITCHING, NATIONALS NEED OFFENSE NOW

There are many glum faces along the National League East corridor this morning. The best starting rotation in the league just became the best in all of baseball, perhaps the best in the last half-decade or so.

Suddenly, moves made by the other four teams—the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals—seem to have gone for naught. Instead of being just a few games better than the other contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a division all their own.

And the cackling can be heard straight down I-95.

Many are suggesting that the Nationals immediately stop their pursuit of pitching upgrades, that adding Carl Pavano through free agency or trading for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza is fruitless.

Cliff Lee could beat John Lannan 5-2 and Zach Greinke 3-2. A loss is a loss regardless of its beauty.

Moreover, the cost for those other pitchers just increased as Lee’s suitors now turn to those four or five available top pitchers, driving up their cost.

What’s a moribund franchise to do?

The first problem is that the Jayson Werth signing will make little sense if that ends up being the only major change the Nationals make over the winter. Those $18 million dollars just can’t be justified as a stand-alone contract.

But I agree with the pundits that it doesn’t make much sense to bring in those hot-shot starters if they give you only a minimally better chance to win the game.

If the Nationals open the 2011 season with just the pitchers they now have, this is how the rotation might look with projected statistics based on how they’re preformed the past two or three seasons & based on a 162-game season:

1—John Lannan 10-14, 4.10, 9.4/3.3/4.6

Lannan’s 2010 season hurt his career numbers but a sore elbow certainly hurt his performance last season. He was one of just a handful of pitchers to have an ERA below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009. On a good team, Lannan could be counted on for: 12-10, 3.75

2—Jordan Zimmermann 6-10, 4.71, 9.3/2.9/8.8

Zimmermann’s numbers are deceiving. He’s had many great starts over his two seasons but a few rookie-roughed-up debacles skewed his stats. He’s a borderline number-one starter or a top number-two. Zimmerman’s good team stats with a little experience: 15-11, 3.44

3—Jason Marquis 14-12, 4.37, 9.1/3.5/4.9

The above numbers are Marquis’ actual statistics from 2007-2009. After elbow surgery and time on the disabled list last season, there is no reason to believe that Marquis cannot return to his solid though not stellar performances of the last five or six seasons.

4—Livan Hernandez 10-12, 3.66, 9.2/2.7/4.8

After a few difficult seasons, Hernandez returned to form last season (see above). He is nothing more than a number-four or number-five starter, but he does his job effectively, pitching 200 innings, shortening the game and giving his team a chance to win.

There are a few players who might secure the final spot in the rotation:

Ross Detwiler 3-14, 4.74, 10.3/ 4.2/5.2

Those numbers are ugly, but good rookie pitchers sometimes pitch ugly. Last season, heading into his final start against the Phillies, Detwiler—the Nationals first round pick in 2007—had a fine record of 1-2, 2.52. He has shown he can be a starter in the National League. It’s just the matter of if he will. Projected record for good team with some experience: 10-10, 4.10

Yuneksy Maya 0-3, 5.88, 10.4/3.8/4.2

Signed last summer as a free agent, Maya was one of Cuba’s best pitchers on their international traveling team. He started five games in the minors and did well, winning a game and crafting a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just 7.6 hits per nine-innings while striking out nearly eight.

This winter, he was even better. Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Maya went 4-1, 0.56, striking out a batter an inning while allowing less than four runners per game.

With the Nationals last fall, he looked nervous during his first four starts but settled down in his last game against the Mets, allowing two earned runs while striking out four in six innings.

Maya could be the key for the Nationals’ rotation. He dominated during the World Baseball Classic in 2009, finishing with a 1.23 ERA. He has the talent to be a true number-three starter, and that will happen once he gains experience. The question is whether he gains that experience in the minors or with the Nationals in 2011.

And if Stephen Strasburg follows fellow teammate Jordan Zimmermann, he will return from Tommy John Surgery sometime in August, further solidifying the rotation.

To be clear, the Phillies will win a lot games against a lot of different teams next season, the Nationals included. Nothing is going to change that. Adding pitchers like Carl Pavano or Matt Garza will make the Nationals better, but not better enough to succeed within the division.

The only way the Nationals can improve now is to spend their available contract dollars—dollars that would have been spent on Cliff Lee or Matt Garza—on productive hitters.

Adam LaRoche has to be the club’s new first baseman. He can be counted on to provide 25 home runs and 100 RBI. His defense is good. Here are my offensive projections for the team:

1B—Adam LaRoche (assuming): .265-25-90

2B—Danny Espinosa: .250-20-70, 25 steals

SS—Ian Desmond: .270-15-65, 20 steals

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .300-30-110

LF—Josh Willingham: .265-24-75

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .270-2-40, 40 steals

RF—Jayson Werth: .290-30-100

C—Pudge & Ramos: .265-8-50

That’s a very good offense, again assuming the Nationals can sign LaRoche. But there are some power-hitting center fielders out there. What if the Nationals were able to trade three or four prospects—like they would have for Zach Greinke—and replace Nyjer Morgan with a 280-25-75 kind of hitter?

Better yet, Jayson Werth has shown he can play center field. Move him over and let Mike Morse (15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year) play right field every day with Roger Bernandina as his backup.

That could be a formidable offense.

I believe in this team. It is one or two more good players from crossing that elusive .500 finish line. But the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia move just increased the cost of those remaining top pitchers by twenty or thirty-percent.

Forget the pitching and go with the offense, Nationals, and let all those arms culled during “The Plan” help lead you through the beginning of “Phase Two.”

Sunday, December 12, 2010

DERREK LEE TO THE NATIONALS? NOT FOR A SECOND

Bill Ladson of nationals.com reported on Sunday that the Washington Nationals are interested in signing first baseman Derrek Lee.

Oh, please.

If the Nationals indeed were to sign the 34-year-old, it would undue virtually all the goodwill the team received when it signed right-fielder Jayson Werth a week ago.

There are just too many reasons to believe this is not true.

First, Derek Lee is getting old and his stats are reflecting that. Over the last 10 seasons, Lee averaged .292/.378/.521 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI. Last season, Lee split time with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves and hit .260/.347/.428 with just 19 home runs and 80 runs driven in.

True, a thumb injury slowed him early in the season but he was mostly healthy when he joined the Braves and his numbers over the last 39 games in Atlanta were only peripherally better.

His clutch-hitting statistics also dropped in 2010. In 2009, Lee batted .320/.424/.600, about as good as it gets. Last season, he hit .283/.411/.552. With the game late or close, he dropped from .302/.381/.512 to .241/.355/.484.

And while he would be a defensive upgrade from Adam Dunn, while he is an above average defender he isn’t great. And again, he is a 34-year-old above average defender.

I’m guessing that this “news” is the Nationals trying to pressure Adam LaRoche into signing with the team, making him worry that he might lose the opportunity if he doesn’t act soon.

Probably the thing that makes the least sense is that Lee is a right-handed batter. If in fact the Nationals were to sign him, they would have a righty batting second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

That just doesn’t work at the major league level.

He’s old. His numbers are declining. He bats from the right side.

I just can’t believe that the Nationals are really interested in Derrek Lee.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

SHOULD NATIONALS TRADE FOR ZACH GREINKE IN A 4-FOR-1 SWAP?

The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they are ready to trade star pitcher Zach Greinke right now, or maybe they won't. Or maybe they will, only later, sometime around next season's July 31st trade deadline.

Or not. They have him under contract for two more seasons at $13.5 million per year.

That sounds a lot like the Toronto Blue Jays just hours before Roy Halladay was shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies for a truck load of prospects.

Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com reported last week that the Royals were seeking 4-5 players in return for their Cy Young Award winning pitcher. Today, he wrote that in return for Greinke, Kansas City would want 1) a starting major league pitcher to take his place, 2) a speedy center field prospect, 3) a young middle infielder and 4) a catcher who isn't too far away from the major leagues.

Though Greinke is just 26, he has been pitching in the major leagues for seven seasons. Over his first three years, he wasn't very good, averaging just 8-14, 4.63, 10.0/2.3/6.4. Since 2008, however, he's been superb, going 14-12, 3.25, 8.5/2.2/8.4.

So, just like Jayson Werth, the Nationals would be paying for just three good years.

Let's assume the Royals would accept four players. They would first need a major league pitcher to replace Greinke. That would probably be John Lannan. Their "speedy center fielder" could be Eury Perez (Low-A) if they didn't need a major league ready pitcher or Roger Bernadina if they did.

They would probably be given their choice of middle infielders Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa or Stephen Lombardozzi. They would certainly accept either Wilson Ramos or Derek Norris as their catcher.

So basically, it would cost the Nationals John Lannan, Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina and Wilson Ramos to get Zach Greinke.

Is it worth it?

Certainly, the loss of John Lannan would hurt. Over 162 games, he has averaged nine wins and a 4.10 ERA with a slash line of 9.4/3.3/4.6. He's just 25 and would be an ideal number-three or four starter for a good Nationals team.

The Royals have a decent shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt (.259-16-78 but with a .298 on-base percentage) but he's 29 and is due to make $6 million in 2012. That's just not going to happen, not in Kansas City. Desmond would be an able replacement.

But the Nationals could easily make due without Desmond. Danny Espinosa, who has good power, a great glove and strikeout problem, could move to short and Stephen Lombardozzi (.293/.387/.415 in the Arizona Fall League) could take over at second base.

Roger Bernadina could become a .290-20-80, 20 steals kind of outfielder or he could become a total bust. The Royals might see that too and prefer Eury Perez, the 20-year-old Dominican who just completed his fourth year of professional ball. He's averaged .312/.390/.402 along with 17 doubles, seven triples, five homers, 55 RBI and 65 stolen bases.

I'm not sure which catcher the Royals would prefer. Derek Norris will begin the season at Double-A Harrisburg and has averaged over 162 games .261/.414/.462 with 33 doubles, 25 homers and 88 RBI. He is just 21.

Ramos is just a year older and over five minor league seasons has averaged .285/.332/.431, 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 80 RBI. His defense is much better than Norris and already has 79 at-bats in the major leagues.

Because they need their catcher sooner rather than later, they'd likely pick Ramos (although Norris will end up being a much hitter).

So the Nationals can add a great pitcher to the rotation and give up Lannan, Perez, Desmond and Ramos to get him. The team can afford to lose Lannan, especially when Stephen Strasburg returns. They won't miss Bernadina and no one even knows who Eury Perez is yet. And chances are that Espinosa and Lombardozzi will be the team's long-term double play combination anyway.

And assuming that Jesus Flores is healthy, the Nationals can wait on Norris for another year, maybe two.

Finally, after five years of waiting, Washington finally has enough prospects that they can make one of those four-for-one or five-for-one deals. But should they?

In a word, no.

Over the last three seasons, Zach Greinke has averaged 13 wins to John Lannan's 9. The fact that both pitchers play for bad teams cancels out that part of the equation. That means that Greinke is worth about five more wins per season than Lannan.

That's one win for Ian Desmond and one for Wilson Ramos, one more for John Lannan and the last one for Eury Perez.

It's just not worth it. There were rumors that the Nationals could have gotten Tampa's Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) for Desmond and Tyler Clippard. That makes more sense. That's the kind of trade the team should jump on

WITH ADAM LAROCHE, NATIONALS COULD CLIMB ABOVE .500

As the third day of baseball's Winter Meetings come to a close, I'm going to make a couple of assumptions regarding the future of the Washington Nationals. Perhaps neither will occur, but let's assume for a moment that they will.

First, I fully expect that the Nats will sign Adam LaRoche as the team's first baseman, probably a two year deal for $15 million or so.

Second, I think that Josh Willingham will remain as the team's left fielder in spite of reports that he will be traded if the team signs a significant bat to play at first (like LaRoche).

Take a look at the Nationals probable lineup for next season, assuming LaRoche and Willingham are with the team.

The statistics are the player's 2010 numbers based on them playing a full season. I chose to use Nyjer Morgan's career average over 162 games because I don't think it is possible for him to have a second season as bad as last year:

CF  Nyjer Morgan: .283/.344/.360   2 HR  36 RBI  44 SB
SS  Ian Desmond: .269/.308/.392  10 HR  65 RBI  17 SB
3B  Ryan Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510  29 HR  98 RBI 4 SB
RF  Jayson Werth: .296/.388/.532  27 HR  85 RBI  13 SB
LF  Josh Willingham: .268/.389/.459  24 HR  81 RBI  8 SB
1B  Adam LaRoche: .261/.320/.468  27 HR  109 RBI  0 SB
2B  Danny Espinosa: .214/.277/.447  35 HR  87 RBI  0 SB
C    Pudge/Ramos: .267/.298/.355  7 HR  62 RBI  3 SB

A couple of caveats regarding the numbers: All eight players' stats are based on 162 games so Zimmerman's numbers for example reflect four additional home runs and 13 more RBI.

Secondly, Espinosa's stats were based on a relatively small sampling, so his home run total (35) and stolen bases (0) are skewed. I expect him to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases next year if he's playing every day.

That can be a very productive lineup in 2011 if Nyjer Morgan returns to form, something I think he can do. And any team that can bat Adam LaRoche sixth is going to score a lot of runs.

If Willingham stays, manager Jim Riggleman will have to find a way to get Michael Morse into the lineup. He said earlier this week that he hoped to find 300 at-bats for the developing slugger. There is a way he can come close to that.

Though LaRoche hits pretty well against lefties (.264/.297/.462), Morse could play 15 or so games at first against the top lefties in the league. And with Willingham's problems remaining healthy, Riggleman could give him regular days off throughout the season, allowing Morse another 20 games in the lineup. When you add in pinch-hitting and perhaps a few games relieving Zimmerman at third, the 28-year-old could get 200 at-bats in 2011.

If Willingham is traded-a distinict possiblity-I would guess that that Morse would be the everyday left-fielder. Had he played 162 games last season, he would have batted .289-30-85. In reality, a full-time Morse would likely hit around .280-25-75, roughly the same as Josh.

How good will the Nationals be in 2011? It depends on the starting pitching. Both the offense and the bullpen seem strong enough now to give the team a chance to win every night.

Right now, the starting rotation includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Livan Hernandez and either Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler or J.D. Martin. Late in the season, of course, Stephen Strasburg returns.

One quality arm, someone along the lines of Matt Garza, and the Nationals are at least a .500 team, maybe better. If they do the impossible and somehow sign Cliff Lee--or trade for Zach Greinke--they could come awfully close to 85 wins.

It it difficult to believe that the Nationals could be that improved in 2011, but that of course is predicated on the team signing Adam LaRoche.

Here's hoping ....

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

IS BRANDON WEBB READY TO PITCH OR IS HE THIS YEAR'S CHIEN-MING WANG?

It's been a roller-coaster type of day already, and it's not even noon.

Multiple sources were suggesting this morning that there was a "mystery team" that was willing to give free agent pitcher Cliff Lee that coveted seventh year that he badly wants, something the Yankees are adamant they will not do. There was even a report that the Nationals were about to officially make that offer with dollars that were in the "ridiculous" range.

But Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post put the kibosh on that story pretty quickly.

So we're back to Carl Pavano and Brandon Webb as possible additions to the rotation.

It's hard to find out exactly what is the status of Webb, who outside of a one-game stint in 2009 hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2008. During his best years (2005-2008), Webb averaged 18-9, 3.23 similar numbers to Chien-Ming Wang's 19-6, 3.87.

His shoulder surgery didn't repair any damage but rather cleaned out the loose pieces and floaties within the shoulder. By this past September, he was ready to pitch but the Diamondbacks said no, probably for fear of making him any more valuable as a free agent.

Webb pitched two innings in the team's instructional league and gave up two runs and three hits in two innings.

But that's all I know. He could be ready to take the ball on Opening Day or he might spend the summer in Viera. I've put out some feelers to try to get a better feel for his health and prognosis, but as of yet, he's just another injured pitcher who is coming back from injured reserve.

Monday, December 6, 2010

FORGET THE WHINING: NATIONALS ARE LOOKING GOOD

Is Adam LaRoche Next On Rizzo's Wish-List?
The baseball world is still whining and complaining about the Nationals' seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals.

Let 'em whine, I say.

For some reason, the Nationals just can't placate anyone, so why try? For years, the team has been slapped about because they refused to spend millions of dollars on players who wouldn't help them become a contender.

Now the team thinks they are close enough to contending that they give a very good player $18 million a year and what happens? Those same people whine and complain that the Nationals pushed the pay-scale up for the remaining free agents, costing other teams millions of dollars.

Let's be clear: I don't care about all the other teams. And why should I? They didn't much care about us while they were beating our brains in on the field, filling up our stadium with their fans, and mocking us off the field.

If the Mets or Angels or whoever have to pay a few million more for Carl Crawford because of the Nationals, I say that's great.

There is no doubt that the Nationals overpaid for Jayson Werth. A couple of analysts on XM Radio said that the team gave Werth two more years and $4 million more per season than any other team, that they were negotiating against themselves.

They were right but couldn't be more wrong.

The Nationals couldn't have signed Werth by giving him $1 more per year and one year extra than the next closest team. No, they had to obliterate the competition and they had to do it fast. There is no doubt that the dollars and years of the contract were the absolute minimum it took to get Werth to Washington.

The only scenario that would make this a bad contract would be if this was the only contract that Washington signs this off-season. But the timing tells me that's not going to happen. The team announced the signing on Sunday, before the Winter Meetings even began. This was a signal to free agent players and their agents that the team was open for business. If a player wasn't certain that the team was committed to winning, they are now.

Some random thoughts, in random order of course:
  • Though I love Josh Willingham, now is the time to trade him. Though he isn't Nick Johnson-fragile, he is close. The team could get two prospects in return and if they move Mike Morse to left, they wouldn't lose much in the way of offense. Morse's 2010 numbers (.289-15-41) works out to .289-32-90 for an entire season. No, I don't think he'll hit that well but he'll hit 25 homers and drive in 80 runs easily.
  • Many are upset that manager Jim Riggleman said that Nyjer Morgan was going to be the team's center fielder next season, but really, 2010 was his first bad year. Prior to last season, Morgan averaged .303/.362/.391 with 42 stolen bases over a 162-game season. The team can afford to give him another chance with Roger Bernadina in reserve should he falter.
  • I would much rather have Adam LaRoche at first the next couple of seasons instead of Carlos Pena. Last season, LaRoche batted .261-21-100, typical numbers for the 30-year-old. Pena, on the other hand, has seen his numbers decline each of the last four seasons.
  • I hope the Nationals resign Chien-Ming Wang. He has said he'll return if no one else offers him a major league contract. He was too good over his career (and looked good during the Instructional League last fall) not to take one more chance. And while they are at it, here's hoping the Nationals sign Brandon Webb too.
  • Reports out yesterday morning hinted at a Tyler Clippard and Ian Desmond for Matt Garza trade. Garza, just 26, went 15-10, 3.91 for Tampa Bay. The Nationals are deep in the bullpen and have Steve Lombardozzi ready to take over at second while Daniel Espinosa would return to his natural position, shortstop. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
I have little doubt that the Nationals will end the week a much improved team, one that perhaps will be good enough to play .500 ball next year. That's .500 ball without Stephen Strasburg. Imagine what they might be able to do with him in 2011.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

EVEN JORGE CANTU CAN REPLACE ADAM DUNN

For the last couple of days, I have been doing a lot of writing about the loss of Adam Dunn and how that affects the Washington Nationals.

I've been comparing Dunn's offensive capabilities against two of his most likely replacements, Carlos Pena and Adam LaRoche and have come to the conclusion that perhaps even those two might be more than the Nationals need in 2011.

The Nationals are going to be a better team next season, but not so much better that they are going to be in any pennant chase, even on its periphery. So why spend $8 or $10 million on a replacement when that player will be little more than a public relations move.

There is no make-or-break player available on the free agent market or available for trade this off season so why not lay the foundation for bigger moves next year? Also, Stephan Strasburg won't return until late in 2011 and his return will be like adding a $20 million per year free agent.

So 2012 is the future of the Washington Nationals.

Following the 2011 season, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez (now with Boston) and Albert Pujols will be free agents. Certainly, other teams will be in pursuit as well but the Nationals would certainly have the resources to sign any one of them.

If the Nationals show improvement next season, one or more might be willing to listen.

Further, first base prospects Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore are still too young to be able to project if or when they will be able to play first for the Nationals.

So if the Nationals aren't interested in moving either Josh Willingham or Mike Morse to first (and that seems to be the case), they need a cheap, capable first baseman who has shown in the past he can be counted on.

Enter Jorge Cantu.

Cantu, 29 has spent seven years in the major leagues, splitting time between Tampa Bay and Florida (before being traded to Texas late last season). Over a 162-game season, he has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percentage.

Offensively, he's similar to Nick Johnson without the walks (Johnson has averaged .270-20-80 over 162 games played).

He had an off year last season due mostly to his difficulty learning the pitchers in the American League but his statistics with the Marlins, expanded to 162 games, were just fine. He was on track to hit .262-26-90 in a full season with Florida but his one home run in 98 at-bats with Texas derailed him.

But as we've learned with Adam Dunn, power numbers don't tell the whole story. Let's compare Cantu's lifetime clutch hitting stats with those of Dunn to see just how much he really will be missed.

First, let's take a look at just their stats while playing first base. Both players have played extensively at other positions so this is how the two players' stats would look based only time at first and averaged into a 162-game season (easier for comparison purposes)

Jorge Cantu: .285-28-92, .340 OBP and .459 slugging
Adam Dunn: .248-39-102, .376 OBP and .522 slugging

Over 162 games, and based only on offensive production while at first, the differences between the two players are not as much as you would think.

Now lets look at the clutch statistics:

Two out, Runners in scoring position:

Cantu: .280/.358/.453
Dunn: .214/.429/.443

Now that's ugly for Adam, but it gets even worse. His batting average for balls in play (strikeouts don't effect batting average) is just .191 while Cantu's is a robust .307.

Late in the game with the score close:

Cantu: .274/.320/.413
Dunn: .233/.382/.476

While Dunn's batting average for balls in play is better at .295, it still pales when compared to Cantu's .324.

When the game is tied:

Cantu: .279/.312/.464
Dunn: .247/.386/.539

Dunn's batting average for balls in play here is just .240, 56 points below Cantu's .296

When team is behind:

Cantu: .274/.323/.444
Dunn: .253/.364/.511

Dunn's .306 average when he puts the ball in play in this category is acutally higher than Cantu's .301

So, just like Adam LaRoche and Carlos Pena, while Jorge Cantu's offensive numbers at first glance don't look as impressive as Dunn's, he is a far better clutch hitter in the later innings and with the game on the line.
So while we all loved Adam, he couldn't field well and didn't hit very well when we needed him most.

Cantu was traded by the Marlins this season in part because of the 16 errors he committed but he was playing third base in 2010. At first, he plays acceptable defense and certainly much better than Dunn.

As much as in pains me to say, Adam Dunn won't be missed by the Washington Nationals in 2011. Either Jorge Cantu or Adam LaRoche will provide the team with more hits and runs when they are needed most, late in the game and with runners on base.

Either Cantu or LaRoche would be a good one-year stop-gap until someone better comes along.

J.D. MARTIN GOOD ENOUGH TO BOLSTER BACK OF NATIONALS ROTATION AND SAVE TEAM MILLIONS

Martin has similar stats to de la Rosa while saving millions
Baseball’s Winter Meetings begin next week and by Thursday the future of the Washington Nationals should be clear.

Can General Manager Mike Rizzo find a top-of-the-rotation starter to replace the injured Stephen Strasburg and will he replace Adam Dunn with someone equally capable at first?

With Adam Dunn’s contract now off the books, the Nationals could easily add $30-40 million in payroll and still be one of the more underfunded teams in the Senior Circuit. And they have been trying.

The Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa was coveted by many teams this off season, the Nationals included. But before the team could come close to making a firm offer, he was resigned by Colorado for two years and $22 million.

Unless something changes in the next month or so, the Nationals will head into Spring Training with a stable of starters that can give the team at least a chance to win every time they take the mound.

After a rough start and a trip to Double-A Harrisburg, John Lannan rebounded and had a solid second half, going 7-4, 3.42 with a .271/.312/.416 slash line. He is just 25 and continues to improve.

Jordan Zimmermann has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected to have a breakout year in 2011. Zimmermann—just 24—was shaky in his first game back against the Cardinals but pitched well for the rest of the season. He started six games and went 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Opponents batted just .233/.298/.476 against him while striking out eight per nine innings.

Jason Marquis’ bad start in 2010 led to elbow surgery and a stint on the injured reserve. In his first five starts, he was horrible, going 0-5, 14.33, .405/.500/.703. But from August 20th on, Marquis was solid, crafting a 2-4 record but with a 3.61 ERA and a .275/.346/.383 slash line. He’s healthy, still just 31, and should match his average over the last six seasons of 13-11, 4.49 in 2011.

Livan Hernandez returned from the dead last season and was rewarded with a raise and a major league contract for 2011, something he did not have at the start of Spring Training last year. After spinning a 5.28 ERA over the previous four seasons, Livan rebounded in 2010, going 10-12 with a fine 3.66 ERA, twenty-sixth best in the National League (only thirty pitchers with qualifying innings had an earned run average below 4.00).

That leaves one spot open in the rotation with Ross Detwiler (1-3, 4.25), J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.13) and Yunesky Maya (0-3, 5.88) as the most likely candidates to fill it.


Yunesky Maya in September Call-Up Action

Before getting crushed in his last game of the season, Detwiler pitched wonderfully, going 1-2, 2.52, .276/.360/.357 in seven starts. Maya looked both rusty and nervous in his three September starts after his call-up but has been dominant in the Dominican Winter League. In five starts, Maya is 3-1, 0.69, allowing a .163 batting average-against and less than one runner per inning.

And before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, Martin gave his team a chance to win every time he took to the mound.

Not counting his last start—when the elbow problems became acutely apparent—Martin was solid for the Nationals. In seven starts, he went 1-4 but with a 3.35 ERA and a .287/.305/.463 opponent’s slash line.

Martin is healthy and ready to pitch when Spring Training opens in two months. But the team continues to seek out other options for the rotation, and Martin seems to be an afterthought.

Options like Jorge de la Rosa

De la Rosa is two years older than Martin, and though he has pitched five more seasons in the major leagues, de la Rosa’s numbers just aren’t all that good. Sure, he’s a strikeout pitcher and can strikeout a batter with runners on base where Martin would have to allow contact to get the out, increasing the chance for runs to score.

But let’s compare the career stats of Martin and de la Rosa. Yes, I understand that the Rockies’ pitcher has a larger body of work but generally, we can get a feel for the type of pitchers they are.

ERA

De la Rosa: 5.02
Martin: 4.32

Hits per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 9.2
Martin: 10.2

Walks per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 4.6
Martin: 2.5

Strikeouts per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 8.0
Martin: 4.9

Base runners per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 1.52
Martin: 1.40

Batting average-against

De la Rosa: .266
Martin: .282

On-base average allowed

De la Rosa: .354
Martin: .334

Slugging average-allowed

De la Rosa: 434
Martin: .492

Percentage of balls thrown for strikes

De la Rosa: 60-percent
Martin: 63-percent

Martin gives up more hits but de la Rosa gives up many more walks. In the end, de la Rosa allows more base runners every inning, giving the opposing team more chances to score.

Of the nine categories, Martin leads in five and de la Rosa in four.

Since joining the Rockies, de la Rosa has averaged—assuming a 162 game season-fifteen wins and a 4.49 ERA with 1.38 base runners per inning. And the Coors Park curse isn’t in play here; he pitches better at home in Denver than on the road.

Again, based on being a starter for the entire 162 games, Martin has averaged nine wins and a 4.32 ERA with 1.39 base runners per inning.

So Martin gives up fewer runners, has a lower earned run average, is two years younger, and will make under $1 million next year.

De la Rosa has a great fastball, can embarrass hitters with his stuff, but walks more than twice as many batters as Martin.

And He’ll make $11 million in 2011.

I would advise the Nationals—yeah, they’ll listen, right?—to go with the four certain starters listed above and give Martin the opportunity to win that fifth spot in the rotation along with Maya and Detwiler.

That $11 million that the Nationals didn’t spend on de la Rosa, along with the $12 million they didn’t spend on Adam Dunn, could buy two very high quality hitters, a first baseman like Adam LaRoche and an outfielder like Jason Werth or Carl Crawford.

With that kind of offense, the rotation will be good enough for the team to win more games than they lose in 2011.

And, oh yeah, they get back that kid with the 100 mph fastball sometime in August. What was his name again?

Friday, December 3, 2010

FORGET THE GLOOM AND DOOM: NATIONALS FUTURE STILL BRIGHT

As the gloaming of the post Adam Dunn era begins to envelop the city that once embraced him, I am somewhat struck at the gloom and doom that is being predicted for both the team and the fans of the Washington Nationals.

Mark Zuckerman adroitly put those fears into words this morning when he wrote, “Plenty of fans have been insisting they wouldn't renew their season tickets if the Nats didn't re-sign Dunn. How many will actually stick to their word and follow through? We'll see, though with no Dunn and no Stephen Strasburg for the majority of 2011, there sure doesn't figure to be a lot of buzz on South Capitol Street.


And there doesn't figure to be a ton of optimism inside the home clubhouse among players who absolutely adored Dunn but more importantly want to feel like this organization is moving closer to realizing actual success.”

Of course, Mark isn’t saying that fans are going to walk away, never to return. And he isn’t suggesting that current players have given up hope for any real future for the team.

He is simply reporting what he’s seeing.

Now let me report what I have seen.

After the Washington Senators left town, I became an Atlanta Braves fan (though for the life of me I don’t understand why). People forget that they were even worse than the Senators, and they were worse for a much longer period of time.

 For sixteen seasons—from 1975 through 1990—the Braves had a winning season exactly twice, in 1982 and 1983. In 1975, attendance was second-worst in the National league and in 1990 they were dead last when only 980,000 fans came to Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium.
The only constant during that period was star slugger Dale Murphy, who averaged .267-32-96 for the moribund Braves. But in 1990, Murphy was a couple of years older than Dunn is now, and the Braves traded him to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies.

Forlorn fans vowed never to watch a game again. They had enough of losing and now their only real slugger was gone. Reporters feared that without Murphy—the face of the franchise—the team would stop teetering near baseball’s abyss and fall into it.

A year later, the Atlanta Braves won 94 games and went to the World Series. Without Dale Murphy, and after two decades of losing, 2.1 million fans did the tomahawk chop at Fulton County Stadium, fourth best in the league.

In 1992, the Braves returned to the World Series and drew more than three-million fans, besting the rest of the league.

The rest, as they say, is history.

I lived in Seattle in the early 1980’s and the Mariners were a bad team with cheap ownership playing in the worst park I have ever seen.

From 1977 through 1995, covering nineteen seasons, the Seattle Mariners had a winning season exactly twice. In 1979, they were dead last in attendance. In 1995, they drew barely a million to the Kingdome, ninth best in the league.
For years, the Mariners’ amateur draft policy was one of signability. Tremendous talent was left on the board in favor of players willing to take a smaller check. In 1979, the Mariners had the number-one pick in the draft and chose Al Chambers, a player that several teams had not even scouted and a couple had never heard of.

This led to a severe case of baseball apathy in Seattle. With so many outdoor activities to enjoy in the region, no one wanted to spend three hours in a concrete cavern watching a bad team play bad baseball.

Reporters worried out loud that good players would never want to come to Seattle. In 1982, the Mariners traded top reliever Bill Caudill to the Yankees for prize prospect Gene Nelson who had dominated the Florida State League the previous year winning 20 games with an ERA under 2.00.

He wined and complained about the trade, saying that he didn’t want to play baseball in Seattle.

But in 1996, a few of their prospects matured and the Mariners became a winner. They drew 2.7 million, fourth best in the American League. In 1997, they won 90 games for the first time and drew more than three million fans.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Braves’ fans suffered for sixteen years before they were able to support a winner and support they did. Mariners’ fans had to wait even longer before winning baseball came to Seattle, but once it did, they came out to the Kingdome in droves.

Currently, Washington Nationals’ fans have had to endure five losing seasons. To match the Mariners mark for futility, Washington would have to wait until the 2026 season before playoff baseball would come to Nationals Park.

That would be in Ryan Zimmerman’s twentieth season.

Since the days of the St. Louis Browns and Philadelphia Athletics, fans swear that they’ll stop supporting their losing team, and yet tickets become impossible to find when their team starts to win.

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers won just 43 games and drew just 1.3 million fans. Three seasons later, they more than doubled their wins and doubled their attendance as well.

And in 1968, the Washington Senators won 65 games and finished dead-last in American League attendance, drawing just 546,000 fans. A year later, they won 21 more games and almost doubled their attendance.

We say things when we are frustrated and Nationals’ fans are no exception. When things don’t go right, we swear we’ll never watch another game. And when a marquee player like Adam Dunn isn’t resigned, we really really won’t ever watch another game.

And players like Ryan Zimmerman grumble about the team’s ability to field a winner and offer up veiled threats about their long-term desire to remain with the team.

And then a couple of free agent signings occurs, along with a trade or two, and a few of the kids suddenly mature, and the Nationals will win 90 games and make the playoffs.

And suddenly, 37,000 fans will pack the park every night and swear they supported the team even when they were losers. And Ryan Zimmerman will tell reporters how great it is to have a first baseman who saves him six or seven errors every year.

It’s going to happen. It always has. It always will. The only question is when.

And when it happens, these five years of futility will be quickly forgotten, just as it happened in Atlanta, and just as it happened in Seattle.

That’s how baseball works.