Saturday, June 11, 2011

Projecting Bryce Harper

Nestled around a slow start and a short slump this year, Bryce Harper is producing the kind of season befitting baseball's premier minor leaguer. 

His high school graduating class received their diplomas about the same time that Harper crushed a 480-foot home run a few days back. 

Instead of kissing his high school sweetheart at the prom, he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher. 

One day soon--probably after he plays in the South Atlantic League All Star game--Harper will be promoted, likely bypassing High-A Potomac and their bad playing field and landing at Double-A Harrisburg, where he will play against baseball's best prospects. 

My guess is that he'll reach Washington sometime next season, just after the Nationals have gained all the leverage they can with his potential arbitration and free agent status. And their he'll stay until the riches of a Scott Boras free agency come calling.

But how good has he been thus far in 2011? His offensive statistics, projected over a full season look like this:

AB: 506--Runs: 98--Hits: 172--Doubles: 33--Triples: 2--Home Runs: 33--RBI: 103--Steals: 30--Walks: 80--Strikeouts: 122. Add to this a .341 batting average, .433 on-base percent and .607 slugging mark and it seems remarkable that he hasn't yet been promoted. 

And if based on a major league 162 game season, he'd be on his way to hitting .341-38-117 with 30 stolen bases.

Harper will likely settle in to center field this time next year and will bring another potent bat to the Nationals' lineup. A middle-of-the-lineup that features Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse, Bryan Harper and (possibly) Adam LaRoche will have little trouble scoring runs. 

Add a (hopefully) healthy Anthony Rendon and this truly can be a team that contends in 2012.


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