Now the word is the Nationals aren't terribly sure they will be able create enough distance between themselves and the other suitors for Mark Buehrle, the pitcher they have always wanted. Suddenly, manager Davey Johnson is making himself available to the media. telling anyone who will listen that all is well with the team's rotation.
In one of the first scrums of the morning, Johnson said, "You know, I really like my staff. I like it as it is right now. Any time you can improve, go for it, [but] I haven't been pushing in that direction."
So what does that mean? If the Nationals return home with no additional starters to shore up the rotation, can the Nationals really, truly contend in 2012?
Yes, I think so.
Let's take a look at how the existing rotation members might do in 2012. The wins and losses are based on them pitching for a team with a good but not great offense and an outstanding bullpen. All the other stats are based on their career averages (or last season's numbers if necessary)
Stephen Strasburg (22): 12-6, 2.54 (6.9/1.9/11.3)
Strasburg, if he's not the best pitcher in the National League on opening day, will be by season's end. Though his season will end early as he continues to rehab from Tommy John Surgery, his 160 innings will be enough to at least place the Nationals in a position to contend for a Wild Card berth.
Jordan Zimmermann (25): 12-8, 3.18 (8.9/.2.2/7.7)
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| Strasburg |
Zimmermann blossomed into the pitcher the Nationals thought he would be in 2011. Over his first 18 games, he went 6-7, 2.66 with 82 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 115 innings. His opponents offensive slash line was just .237/.275/.328.
Over his last 10 starts, he tired and his numbers suffered, though not that badly. Zimmermann went 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a .278/.325/.457 slash line.
I wouldn't be surprised if Zimmermann out pitches Strasburg in 2012.
John Lannan (26): 11-9, 3.75 (9.4/3.7/4.7)
John Lannan is the reason I don't think the Nationals really need Mark Buehrle. Though the former White Sox southpaw has been doing it longer, their internal numbers are quite similar. The biggest difference is that Lannan has played his entire career for a loser, Buehrle for a winner.
Other than that, they are similar enough that the Nationals would only be a little better with Mark Buehrle in the rotation because, obviously, if Mark Buehrle comes, John Lannan goes, probably packaged in a deal designed to bring the team that center fielder they so badly want.
Chien-Ming Wang (31): 9-9, 3.86 (9.6/2.7/5.5)
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| Wang |
After getting the rust out of his system--his first two starts were pretty bad--Wang reverted to pre-injury form last summer. In nine starts, he went 4-1, 3.71 (.251/.292/.391 opponent slash line). Those numbers are pretty much identical to his two All-Star seasons with the Yankees in 2006-2007 when he averaged 19-7, 3.68.
Wang is 100-percent healthy and could provide top-of-the-rotation quality from the back of the Nationals' rotation.
If the Nationals don't come up with that fifth starter, the team does have several youngsters to choose from, any of which could provide starts almost as good as Mark Buehrle or Roy Oswalt or C.J. Wilson:
25-year-old Ross Detwiler first pitched in the major leagues in 2007 and over the past two seasons has started 23 games, roughly what a number-five starter might over the course of a full season. Over that period, Detwiler has gone 5-8 with fine ERA of just 3.39, giving up 9.1 hits and 3.2 walks while striking out 5.5 per nine-innings.
He's ready. He has thrown 172 major league innings and has enough experience to grab the number-four spot in the rotation. If given the chance, a 10-10, 3.75 type of record would be very realistic.
24-year-old Tommy Milone has had an amazing minor league career since joining the Nationals' organization back in 2008. Over four seasons, the southpaw has a career record of 37-22 with an ERA of 3.05, walking just one batter per nine-innings while striking out 8.1.
In five starts with the Nationals last fall, Milone went 1-0 with a 3.81 ERA, walking just 1.4 batters per nine-innings and striking out 5.2.
Milone is very similar to Lannan but his deceptive follow through garners far more strikeouts while at the same time walking just a third of the batters than Lannan does.
Milone is ready and could take over a spot in the rotation if needed.
Brad Peacock came out of nowhere in 2012 and was named baseball's Double-A pitcher of the year after going 10-2, 2.01 with the Harrisburg Senators. He was promoted to Triple-A Syracuse and did almost as well, going 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA.
In 12 September innings, Peacock went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA. He only allowed 5.3 hits per nine-innings but walked 4.5, much higher than his minor league career average. His strikeouts were down too, fanning just three per nine-innings.
Though Peacock without question has the best stuff of the three, he may need a little more time refining his skills in the minor leagues. And while Milone gets by on guile and grit (and an 88mph fastball), another few months of minor league experience will only help him.
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| Ross Detwiler |
That means that Ross Detwiler is the guy most likely to fill the hole in the rotation if the Nationals can't find that starter they are looking for. That said, a full season of Detwiler will likely bring two or three fewer wins than a full season of Mark Buehrle, which isn't enough to keep them out of a Wild Card hunt but could be enough to allow a team to sneak past them in the standings.
I still believe that the best bet for the 2012 Nationals would be to sign Roy Oswalt to a two-year deal, move John Lannan down to the number-four starter, and give the kids one more year to polish their game before joining Washington for good in 2013.
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