J.P. RAMIREZ: LATE ROUND PICK MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN HAGERSTOWN

Every morning since he was a kid, J.P. Ramirez dragged himself out of bed and headed out to the batting cage, sleep in his eyes and bat in his hand. And every morning, he put the bat on his shoulder and took a deep breath.


And he began to swing.

Over and over, hour after hour, ash met leather. Line drives seared through the morning dew as they tried to escape the confines of the cage.

And he wouldn’t stop.
Over time, the bones in his fingers warped, the result of them being perpetually clamped around his bat.

And he wouldn’t stop.


The skin on Ramirez’ hands calloused to the point of making them almost useless for anything other than swinging his bat.

And still he wouldn’t stop.

He can no longer flatten his hands without a debilitating pain shooting through his knuckles.

And yet he keeps on swinging.

Like a car odometer on a family trip, the swing count spirals upwards.

Two hundred swings. Three hundred. Four hundred.

By his 500th swing, Ramirez is drowning in sweat and comfortable that he had wrung every last ounce of strength from his muscles.

And with that, he would leave the cage and return to the world of a teenager, where school and tests and girls and food and cars occupy his time.

Until the next morning, that is, when he would once again grab his bat, enter the cage, and hit 500 balls as hard as his hurting hands would allow.

This unyielding approach to perfection is what got J.P. Ramirez noticed in his home town of New Braunfels, Texas. He wanted to be not just the best, but the very best baseball player to ever don a Canyon High School jersey.

And to do it, he had to be better than the Yankees’ Lance Berkman, an alum of Canyon High.

It wouldn’t be difficult. All it would take, he thought, was 500 swings a day.

Every day.

The local paper named him the best first-year player in the conference.

And he kept on swinging.

He was named all-state (a big accomplishment in Texas) in his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He was a Louisville Slugger All-American his senior season and a Baseball America second-team All-American.

Canyon coach Pete Garza, who has seen them all come and go since 1968, said recently that Ramirez was simply “..the best I’ve ever coached. As far as work ethic goes, he’s definitely at the top.”

Better than even Lance Berkman.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

The batting cage is in his backyard, and every morning, his neighbors awake to the sound of 500 balls cutting through the humid air, reverberating on their roofs and their garages and their cars.

"For some reason the neighbors don't mind the noise," Mary Ramirez said. "They understand it's J.P. I guess they figured they'd need to get used to it."

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

His father began to take J.P. to the batting cages at the age of four, hitting 75 mph pitches with ease. By seven, he could get around on a 95 mph fastball.

Five hundred swings.

After his amazing high school career, he accepted a scholarship to play baseball for powerhouse Tulane University. Clubs were so sure that he was going to college that no one dared draft him and risk losing their pick.

Except the Washington Nationals, that is, who took Ramirez with their selection in the 15th round in last year’s amateur draft.

Normally, 15th rounder’s get bus fare and a package of Twinkies for signing their contract.

Ramirez got $1.2 million.

Negotiations remained very quiet between the Nationals and Ramirez until it became apparent that the team would not be able to sign top pick Aaron Crow in the waning minutes of the signing period. A quick phone call was all it took. Ramirez was a National.

By way of comparison, Drew Storen, one of the Nationals’ first-round picks in 2009, signed for just $300,000 more than Ramirez, who was drafted 14 rounds later.

One hundred swings. Two hundred.

Ramirez arrived in Viera, Florida late in 2008 and played in the nine remaining games for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League rookie team, hitting .407 with a homer and 12 RBI, leading the team to within a game of the GCL Championship.

Three hundred swings. Four hundred.

In 2009, the 5’10”, 185 pound Ramirez played for the Vermont Lake Monsters, a low Class-A team in the New York-Penn League, where he faces 20-something college pitchers almost every night.

In 72 games, Ramirez batted .264-4-39 with six steals. Over a full major league season, that would translate into .264-8-78 and a dozen steals, not very good by his standards. He had to get better.

And so he returned home to New Braunfels after the season and took a day or two off. Then one morning, he stood up, walked out to his back-yard batting cage, let the handle of his bat slip into his curled fingers, placed it on his shoulder and took a deep breath.

And he started to swing.

One hundred swings. Two hundred. Three hundred.

Ramirez was promoted to Class-A Hagerstown this season and is currently hitting .283-13-56 (.283-21-84 over a full season). He has improved in almost all eras of his game, both offensively and defensively. He’ll certainly start next season with High-A Potomac and will likely end the season with Double-A Harrisburg.

He has taken a big step towards the major leagues.

And yet, just a few days after the end of the season, when the pain begins to subside in his hands, J.P. Ramirez will wake up early, drag himself out of bed, walk down the stone path towards his batting cage.

He’ll take a deep breath and focus on the pitching machine. And the balls will start flying his way.

One hundred swings. Two hundred …..

JOHN LANNAN TO TAKE STEVEN STRASBURG'S NEXT START

The Washington Nationals had many options from which to plug the hole in the starting rotation caused by Stephen Strasburg's (hopefully) quick trip to the disabled list.

They chose to go with an old friend, though, former Opening Day starter John Lannan.

Lannan, who was never able to find his way in 2010, was demoted to Double-A Harrisburg after going 2-5, 5.76 in 14 starts.

But he didn't fair much better in his time with the Senators, going 1-4, 4.20 against some of the best prospects in major league baseball.

But it's not like Lannan, 25, has something to prove.

He was one of only seven National League starters to log 30 starts and have an ERA under 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009.

Of all major league starters with at least 70 career starts, he is tied with Josh Beckett for the highest percentage of career quality starts at 60% (a quality start is pitching at least six innings while allowing three runs or less).

In his fourth major league season, Lannan is a veteran and capable of quickly finding the problem that is haunting him this season and fixing it.

He just has to do it.

For the Nationals to take the next step towards respectability, John Lannan has to return to form. When the season started several months back, Lannan was the best pitcher the Nationals had on the major league roster.

But Today, Stephen Strasburg, Ross Detwiler and Scott Olsen will be ahead of him in the rotation. And when Jason Marquis returns--and possibly Chien-Ming Wang--Lannan will find himself as the number-five starter in the rotation.

That assumes that Livan Hernandez is traded in the next few days.

While most of Lannan's problem is mechanical, he seems lost on the mound and unsure of his stuff. What he needs is one or two starts with the Nationals that go smoothly.

Once that happens, Lannan will hopefully again become Washington's "Mr. Dependable."

WILSON RAMOS BRINGS NEW HOPE TO NATIONALS' FUTURE

Wilson Ramos

The Washington Nationals made a substantive trade Thursday and it had nothing at all to do with Adam Dunn.

Go figure.

The Nationals traded All-Star closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Nationals just got a whole lot better.

Capps, who saved his 25th game on Thursday, has a record of 3-3 with a fine ERA of just 2.80. The 26-year-old has already saved 92 major league games.

But as good as Capps is, he was expendable because bad teams don’t need All-Star closers and his heir apparent, former first-round pick Drew Storen, is pitching even better. Storen is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA, allowing just 7.3 hits per nine-innings while striking out eight.

The Nationals also have several quality relievers currently in the minors to replace him, so the loss of Capps will make minimal difference—if any—for the rest of the season.

And in return they didn’t receive a run-of-the-mill prospect who is usually traded for a rental player.

Wilson Ramos, 22, signed in 2004 with the Twins as an amateur free agent. In five minor league seasons, Ramos has batted .284/.331/.427 with 36 home runs and 211 RBI (which averages out to about 16 homers and 75 RBI over a full minor league season).

Ramos was recalled from Triple-A Rochester earlier this season when Twins catcher Joe Mauer was injured. He batted a solid .296/321/.407 in 27 at-bats. In his first game, he went 4-5, the first Twin to garner four hits in his first game since Kirby Puckett in 1984 and is the only catcher in the modern era to do it.

He returned to the minors when Mauer rejoined the team.

He is a solid defensive catcher, throwing out 43% of would-be base stealers over his minor league career and has a .987 fielding percent over that span.

He has a perfect catcher's build. He hits for a good average and has real home run power. His walk-to-strikeout rate isn’t wonderful, but he is just 22.

Ramos was added to the Twins 40-man roster in 2008 and Aaron Gleeman lists him as the Twins third best prospect. Baseball America has him at number four.

Says baseball insider Keith Law," Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find."

Ramos is considered one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball and the only reason he wasn’t the Twins' Opening Day catcher was due to some guy named Joe Mauer.

He's so good that he was one of two players offered to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee earlier this month.

If Jesus Flores returns, the Nationals will have two good hitting catchers who are both solid defensively. If he doesn’t return, Ramos should become the Nationals starting catcher for years to come.

The Nationals also received minor league pitcher Joe Testa, who in three seasons as a reliever, has gone 10-7, 3.33.

This trade is indicative of a couple of things. First, General Manager Mike Rizzo demands a lot from a potential trade partner but holds firm and gets what he wants.

Secondly, if he can get this kind of return for Capps, imagine what an Adam Dunn trade will bring the Nationals.

I think a Dunn deal is now a matter of when, not if.

Lastly, catcher Derek Norris, one of the Nationals' top prospects, is now expendable and might be packaged in a deal that would bring the Diamondbacks' Edwin Jackson to Washington.

Wow.

The Washington Nationals just got a whole lot better. Thanks, Mike.

PUTTING POTENTIAL ADAM DUNN TRADE IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Catfish Hunter in 1968, Yankee Stadium

ESPN baseball analyst Jayson Stark reported on Wednesday that it is now very likely that the Nationals—who seem unable to come to terms with first baseman Adam Dunn—will now trade him by the July 31st trading deadline.

The possibility of losing their offensive linchpin worries Nationals’ fans and fuels the concern that their team is joining the Pirates and Royals in the never-ending cycle of trading established players for prospects.

The Nationals currently have three options regarding the future of Adam Dunn. They can keep him and sign him to the contract he wants, $60 million over four years. They can trade him now and receive prospects or they can let him leave at the end of the season and receive two compensation picks, a mid-round pick and a supplementary pick following the first round.

Most agree that a four-year contract is too long for the 30-year-old slugger. If he sticks to his demands, the team won’t resign him. And while supplemental picks can bring future stars, the Nationals are not in a position to wait another five or six years for Dunn’s replacements to make an impact at the major league level.

So Jayson Stark is right; it’s highly likely that Dunn’s tenure with Washington is almost at an end.

I know it is difficult to lose a star for prospects that may—or may not—make a difference with the big club. But sometimes, not making a move is the worst possible choice.

The biggest problem is that fans don’t want to break up the heart of the Nationals’ order, one of the best in baseball. Ryan Zimmerman, Dunn and Josh Willingham make up one of the strongest three-four-five trios in all of baseball.

The three players are on track to hit .282-89-283 this year and are the heart of the team. The other five starters are no more than supporting players at best. To lose one, it is feared, would further damage a bad team.

And who knows what the team might get in return, right?

Nationals’ fans born after before 1960 remember the team’s predecessor, the Washington Senators. No team had lost more games in the Sixties and 1969 seemed no different. However, new manager Ted Williams brought some magic to Washington and the team won 86 games, the only time the expansion Senators finished above .500.

They succeeded that year—just like the Nationals—on the strength of their three-four-five hitters. Mike Epstein, Ken McMullen and Frank Howard. Those three combined to hit .282-97-283 in 1969, virtually identical to this season’s big-three (.282-89-283).

And just like this season’s Nationals, the other five starters were average to slightly above-average players.

Following the 1969 season, team owner Bob Short turned down manager Williams’ plea to trade two of the three stars for prospects. It would hurt the team the following year, Williams said, but could make the team contenders as early as 1972.

Short said no. He was unwilling to move his best players.

But what if he had made those trades in the winter of 1969? What if Short had taken a chance and built the Senators then as the Nationals are trying to do now?

In his book, Ted Williams and the 1969 Season, Ted Leavengood listed several trades that were not just rumored but were concrete offers by other teams for several Senators’ players, all turned down by Short.

Mike Epstein was one of the hottest commodities at the 1969 Winter Meetings, and both the Yankees and the Oakland Athletics tried to pry him away from Washington.

The Yankees, seeing the public relations value of having a Jewish slugger on their team—Epstein’s nickname was “SuperJew”—offered lefty Fritz Peterson for the Senators’ slugger. Peterson, just 26, had won 12 games in 1968 and 17 in ’69 with an ERA of just above 3.00.

Bob Short said no.

Peterson finished his career with 133 wins, including 20 in 1970, with a 3.40 ERA.

Athletics’ owner Charley Finley next came calling, offering 23-year-old Catfish Hunter for Epstein, who had already won 55 major league games.

Again, Bob Short said no.

Hunter is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher who won 224 games in his career—including 20 five times—with a 3.26 ERA. He was an eight-time all-star and an ERA champion. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the American League.

The Senators had a young slugger in 1969 by the name of Brant Alyea, who hit 10 home runs in part-time duty by the All-Star break. Though he would hit only one more that year, Calvin Griffith, owner of the Minnesota Twins, was enamored with his good looks and powerful stroke.

He had offered Short third baseman Craig Nettles, who had shown some promise in parts of three major league seasons. Though major league scouts roundly believed that Nettles would one day become an all-star, and though those same scouts saw major flaws in Alyea’s looping swing (think Austin Kearns here), Short said no.

Nettles, in his first full season as a major leaguer, hit 26 homers in 1970 and played defense equal to that of the Orioles’ Brooks Robinson.

In a 22-year career, Nettles hit almost 400 homers, drove in more than 1,300 runs, was a six-time all-star, won multiple Gold Gloves and led the American League in home runs in 1976.

The New York Mets, fresh off their miracle 1969 World Championship season, recognized that they had a problem at third base and saw the Senators' McMullen as their answer.

The Mets offered a variety of packages for McMullen before settling on a two-for-one trade offer that would have brought to Washington relief pitcher Tug McGraw and starter Nolan Ryan.

Bob Short said no.

McGraw—father of Country singer Tim McGraw—had a great year in 1969, going 9-3, 2.24 with 12 saves. Over his career, McGraw won 96 games, saved another 180, had a very solid 3.14 ERA, and was a two-time all-star. He won two World Series, one with the Mets and the other with the Phillies in 1980.

And McGraw was the worst of the two players being dangled by the Mets.

Nolan Ryan won 324 games in an astonishing 27-year career. He was an eight-time all-star, is the all-time leader in strikeouts and is second in career starts.

Oh yes, he’s also thrown seven no-hitters.

In the end, Epstein, McMullen and Alyea were all out of baseball by the mid 1970’s and the Senators ended up moving to Texas following the 1971 season.

But with Catfish Hunter and Nolan Ryan headlining the rotation, and with Tug McGraw in the bullpen, and Graig Nettles at third, the Senators would have begun the process of becoming a contender.

Just like the Senators in 1969, the 2010 Nationals won’t become contenders with nothing more than a strong middle of the lineup. The rest of the team has to get better, and getting two or three prospects that would make an immediate impact makes just too much sense.

And the $15 million that would have gone to Dunn could now go to one or two free agents who, along with the prospects, could turn the Nationals into contenders rather quickly.

I love Adam Dunn. I would greatly miss him. But in the long run, the Nationals needs are just too great for the team to hitch their star to just one, very big, very strong player.

The prospects that the Chicago White Sox are offering, Dan Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks, may not turn out to be the next Graig Nettles, Nolan Ryan and Catfish Hunter.

But they could. And if they did, the Nationals could become a true contender as early as next season.

RUMORS OF AN DUNN FOR JACKSON TRADE ABOUND: DOES IT HELP THE NATIONALS?

As the trade deadline approaches, it is becoming apparent that Adam Dunn has a better chance to be traded by July 31st then to remain a long-term part of the franchise.

Edwin Jackson Earlier This Season

Rumors abound that he is perturbed at the Nationals’ perceived lack of urgency in getting a contract extension completed and during the second inning of Saturday’s game with the Milwaukee Brewers went upstairs and had an on-air visit with Brewers’ radio man Bob Uecker.

Nationals’ manager Jim Riggleman told reporters that he didn’t want to hear about it and Dunn said on Monday that “I could care less if I get in trouble for going up and seeing my guy after he had heart surgery. I’ll pay my fine.”

It doesn’t sound like things are too copacetic between the team and the first baseman, at least for the moment.

Okay, so the chances of Dunn resigning with the Nationals seem unlikely, leaving the team with two options. They can either trade him between now and Saturday or allow him to leave this winter as a free agent and get two additional draft pick in next summer’s amateur draft.

But really, the Nationals can’t afford to let their highest profile hitter walk away and get back a couple of players who may—or may not—turn into major league players in, oh, I don’t know, four or five years.

No, they need player(s) who can make an immediate contribution.

But is Edwin Jackson that player?

General Manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear for some time that he is a fan of the 27-year-old Jackson, and rumors have swirled on Monday that a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Nationals could bring Jackson to Washington in exchange for Dunn.

It is difficult to determine what a premier slugger is worth in exchange for two months of playing time. The Rangers gave up four minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee for two months, so you would think that Dunn would have similar value.

But teams are unwilling these days to trade away their best prospects for a rental hitter. If the rumors are to be believed, Dunn’s value is a couple of good—but not great—minor leaguers.

So is a Dunn for Jackson swap a good deal for the Nationals?

Jackson was a sixth-round pick of the Dodgers in 2001 and since 2006 has spent time with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Detroit and the Diamondbacks.

His first season as a full-time starter—with Tampa in 2007—was a disaster as Jackson went 5-15, 5.76. He blossomed the next season though, going 14-11, 4.42. He was at his best in 2009 with the Tigers, garnering a record of 13-9, 3.62.

His numbers with Arizona this season haven’t been as good (6-9, 5.01) but his internal numbers match his career marks (9.3/4.0/7.0) so his difficult year may be the product of playing with a bad team, or a run of bad luck, or both.

Jackson has a 95 mph fastball along with a good slider and change. His fastball, though, doesn’t have particularly good movement at times, leading to a higher-than-normal ERA for a pitcher of his caliber. He also walks too many batters.

But he’s just 27 and would be an excellent addition to the Nationals’ growing-by-the-day pitching staff.

Come 2011, the Nationals’ rotation could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson, Cuban defector Yuneski Maya and Jason Marquis, with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Ross Detwiler all fighting to gain a rotation spot as well.

Pretty good, I’d say.

Reports this afternoon suggest that a possible trade for Edwin Jackson would send prospects, and not Adam Dunn, to Arizona.

We’ll know in a few days, but regardless, starting pitching won’t be one of the Nationals’ problems next season.

NATIONALS MUST MOVE THEIR POOR DEFENDERS THIS WEEK AS TRADE DEADLINE LOOMS

Rickie Weeks launched his 20th home run of the season on Sunday and sent Ross Detwiler to the showers.

Detwiler, in his first start since returning to the major leagues after undergoing hip surgery this spring, pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out four. He allowed five runs.

All unearned.

A Willie Harris first inning miscue and a fourth inning bad throw by Ian Desmond opened the floodgates for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Good baseball teams win with great pitching and stout defense. The Washington Nationals are just a couple of weeks away from transforming their place-holder starting rotation into a quality group that could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Olsen, Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Livan Herandez and--sometime in September--Cuban defector Yuneski Maya.

And though the bullpen has been a little shaky in recent days, is still solid with Sean Burnett, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps.

And though the offense hasn't performed as expected, it is a capable group and certainly good enough to win on most days.

Good enough, that is, if the team could play anything resembling major league defense.

But after allowing the Florida Marlins to tie them for the most errors in the National League this season, the Nationals took the field on Sunday and quickly regained the title with two more errors.

It has become clear that by next season the pitching staff will be able to lead a contending team if they had a solid defensive team behind them. But the Nationals just don't have those type of players. With the possible exception of shortstop Ian Desmond, none of the team's defensive liabilities are going to get better with practice.

They are what they are.

So it's time that the Nationals commit to playing quality defenders.

That means that Adam Dunn has to go. That means that Cristian Guzman needs a new home. Josh Willingham, though he's playing better in the field, is still not a great defender. And though Nyjer Morgan has the speed to make up for many of his mistakes, he just doesn't have the baseball instincts necessary to be an everyday center fielder.

Were Mike Rizzo to use these remaining days before the July 31st trading deadling to trade Dunn, Guzman, Willingham, Morgan as well as closer Matt Capps and starter Livan Hernandez, they could receive a half-dozen or more position players that are ready--or near ready--to shore up the defense.

The Nationals could field a starting eight that might look something like this:

1B-Mike Morse

2B-Adam Kennedy

SS-Alberto Gonzalez

3B-Ryan Zimmerman

LF-Willie Harris

CF-Roger Bernadina

RF-Justin Maxwell

C-Pudge Rodriguez & Wil Nieves

Though Maxwell hasn't hit well at the major league level this season, he has in the past and is an excellent fielder. And the time has come for the Ian Desmond experiment to end, at least at the major league level. If he is going to make 35 errors a season, let him do it in the minors.

Two or three of those prospects received in possible trades this week would be ready to take over next season. Also, there are several free agents who will be available this winter who could help fill out the 2011 roster.

I'm tired of watching this team stumble and bumble in the field. I'd much rather watch them lose 2-1 than 5-4. The Nationals' pitching is ready to contend. But unless their defense is as good as their pitching, it will be just another long year in Washington next season.

DETWILER READY

Ross Detwiler took the mound on Wednesday afternoon and pitched seven shutout innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out seven.

In eight rehab starts since undergoing surgery this spring, Detwiler has crafted a 2-2 record with a sterling 2.27 ERA. He struck out 31 batters in 32 innings while walking just seven.

Detwiler, who had a 1.90 ERA in six September starts last season, seems ready to take his place in the Nationals rotation within the next week or two.

It won't be too long before Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Detwiler hold down the top of the Nationals' rotation, all home-grown and all very, very good.

NATIONALS SIGN FIRST HIGH PROFILE INTERNATIONAL PLAYER

Two weeks ago, it seemed imperative that the Washington Nationals resign Adam Dunn and make him a long-term part of the team's future.

No more.

The continues to prove that while they are on the cusp on contention, they aren't close enough to begin signing 30-year-old players to long-term deals.

To win at this level, a team must have quality pitching and solid defense to go along with timely hitting.

Right now, the Nationals have a strong bullpen and is deep enough to support a contending team. And once the injured starters begin to return, their starting rotation could be as good as anyone in the division.

Let's look at who the Nationals should have available come September 1st:

1. Stephen Strasburg

A once-in-a-generation talent, Strasburg is 4-2, 2.03, 6.7/2.6/12.6 in his first eight starts in the major leagues. He's only going to get better and will likely be the best pitcher in the National League next season, if he's not already.

2. Jordan Zimmermann

A second-round pick in the 2007 draft, Zimmermann played parts of three seasons in the minors and put up Strasburg-like numbers, going 15-6, 2.68, 7.2/2.9/10.0 in 204 innings. He went 3-5, 4.63 in 2009 before Tommy John surgery ended his season.

While his overall numbers with Washington don't look too impressive, he improved as the season progressed, and in his last nine starts went 1-3, 3.18 while allowing opponents a .243 batting average, .305 on-base percentage and .355 slugging mark.

He has been near perfect in his rehab starts this month, keeping his fastball around 94 mph and not walking a batter.

3. Yunesky Maya

Maya, a Cuban defector, was being chased by the Red Sox and Yankees this spring but was signed by the Nationals yesterday.

At 28, Maya is a veteran of the World Baseball Classic and has won the Cuban equivalent of the Cy Young Award. In six seasons in Cuba, Maya went 48-29, 2.51.

Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo said he is "battle tested" and should be in the rotation "this year."

4. Jason Marquis

Bone chips in his elbow landed him on the disabled list earlier this year but has begun his rehab stint and should be ready to rejoin the team sometime in August.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged 14 wins, .9.3/3.4/5.0. With the Rockies last season, he went 15-13, 4.04.

The Nationals could fill their fifth and final spot in the rotation with any of the following players:

John Lannan: The Opening Day starter the past two seasons, Lannan is in the minors right now trying to regain his form. But he is one of just a handful of major league starters with an ERA below 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009, so there is no reason to believe he won't be back in Washington any day.

Chien-Ming Wang: His return from shoulder surgery has taken longer than anticipated, but he expected to return sometime this year. Wang, 29, averaged 19-7, 3.74 in 2006-2007 and was 8-2, 4.04 in 2008 before the injury began to take its toll.

Scott Olsen: Olsen averaged 11 wins for the Marlins from 1006-2008 and is still just 26. He had surgery last season and began this year 2-2, 3.77 before soreness forced him to the disabled list. He too is rehabbing and will be back in the next few weeks.

Ross Detwiler: The former 2007 first-round draft pick went 15-17, 3.94 in the minors before getting called up in 2009. Though he pitched poorly in May and June, he returned in September from a July demotion and was brilliant, going 1-1, 1.90 while allowing opponents a .220 batting average, .319 on-base percent and a .268 slugging mark.

He required surgery this past spring but should be ready to return next month.

Also in the mix is J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.14), Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) and Luis Atilano (6-7, 5.15).

Without doing a thing, the Nationals have put together a pitching staff capable of contending. Oh no, not right now with the rotation full of place-holders, but once the disabled list empties in favor of the rotation, all will be well.

The Nationals need defense and they need more hitting. They can do this by trading Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Livan Hernandez and Matt Capps for prospects and then finding a present or two in the upcoming free agent market.

The Nationals have taken care of the pitching. Now it's time to fix the defense.

J.D. MARTIN CONTINUES TO IMPRESS

When the Washington Nationals signed pitcher J.D. Martin to a minor league contract two years ago, not much was expected from the former Indians' first-round selection.

Though he dominated in the minor leagues, Tommy John surgery in 2005 robbed him of his fastball, and when he returned the following year, he just wasn't the same pitcher.

Although he put up respectable numbers as an Indian farm-hand, they chose not to sign him following the 2008 season and he signed with the Nationals a few weeks later.

He started 16 games for Triple-A Columbus in 2009 (8-3, 2.66) before joining the Nationals' rotation in June.

In his first four starts, he was bad, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA, allowing a .329 batting average-against.

But since then, Martin has been as solid as any of the Nationals' starters not named Strasburg. He has ten quality starts in 19 tries and has given up more than three runs just three times.

In those 19 starts, he as allowed just 9.6 hits and 2.1 walks per nine-innings while striking out 5.1. Martin has averaged more than six innings per start.

J.D. Martin will never be a front-of-the-rotation guy, but more often than not, he will give his team a chance to win.

NATIONALS READY TO RIDE SECOND-HALF TAILWIND BACK TO RESPECTABILITY

So where are the Washington Nationals headed?


Just a couple of months ago, the team was five games over .500 and seemed both ready and able to remain competitive until Stephen Strasburg joined the squad and Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwiler regained their health.

The Nationals could then move some of their surplus starters into the bullpen and trade away the rest for players who could plug some of the holes on the 25-man roster.

It was thought that the team could then at least remain on the cusp of contention for the rest of the season.

Of course, that never happened. The team went from five games over .500 to 10 games under in just a few days.

Well, it seemed like that anyway.

Now obituaries for the 2010 Nationals are being written across the Internet as you read this.

So which is it? Is this a much improved team or just a carbon copy of the past two years of frustration?

I say forget the past month. But I also say that for the team to redeem itself—and quickly—a few changes need to be made.

The team can get back to .500 by the end of the season, but the front office can’t wait much longer before changing direction.

First, the Ian Desmond experiment needs to come to an end, but just for now. Though I still believe that he will be a top-notch major league shortstop, his poor play has to be eating at his confidence.

And brother, those 19 errors are sure hurting the team.

There is nothing wrong with Cristian Guzman finishing the year at short. No, he doesn’t get to many of the balls that Desmond does, but those he does get to usually turn into outs.

Though Adam Kennedy hasn’t played particularly well thus far (.238/.317/.319), his career 162-game average is .276-8-57. I think that if he plays every day, he’ll play well.

Nyjer Morgan has to go too.

Look, I love the guy’s attitude and I love his energy and I love his love for the game. But I think we have a large enough sample now to be able to say that he just doesn’t have solid baseball skills. He gets picked off first too often. He takes bad routes to fly balls. He throws to the wrong bases.

And that was just last week.

Roger Bernadina deserves to start in center, and Michael Morse needs the opportunity to show if he is an everyday major leaguer.

Here is my starting lineup with their current statistics expanded to a full 162-game season:

1B—Adam Dunn: .271-36-96
2B—Adam Kennedy: .238-6-45
SS—Cristian Guzman: .295-3-44
3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .285-29-89
LF—Josh Willingham: .276-30-92
CF—Roger Bernadina: .290-18-80
RF—Mike Morse: .340-30-60
C—Pudge Rodriguez: .301-2-46

Kennedy’s numbers look a little anemic, but given the opportunity to play every day, he’d probably end up hitting near .260 by season’s end, perhaps a little better.

Morse’s stats are skewed because he has just 50 at-bats, but his career 162-game average is .299-10-60 with a .360 on-base percentage and a .425 slugging mark.

Desmond would need to return to the minors to regain his confidence, but Morgan could remain as a backup outfielder, at least for the remainder of the season.

We know that the bullpen is strong, one of the strongest in baseball. It can be the rudder that leads the team back to respectability. No major changes here.

That leaves us with the starting rotation.

Stephen Strasburg is the ace and will wow the league until sometime in early September, when the Nationals will shut him down to save his arm. By that time, former No. 1 pitching prospect Jordan Zimmermann will be ready to take his spot in the rotation.

Zimmermann—who underwent Tommy John surgery almost a year ago—begins his rehab process next week. No, he’s not Stephen Strasburg, but he will be a solid No. 2 major league starter.

Sometime in the next month or two, Jason Marquis will be ready to return to the rotation. He is a former All-Star and will give the team a chance to win every time he starts.

Chien-Ming Wang, who has twice won 19 games in a season, can be a solid No. 3 during the season’s second half.

John Lannan’s struggles in 2010 are an anomaly. He is one of just a handful of major league starters who have finished the last two seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and is near the top of the quality starts list as well.

Lannan pitched very well in his first game with Double-A Harrisburg and should return to Washington sooner rather than later.

Lannan—this season’s Opening Day starter—now becomes the team’s No. 4 starter.

The team could then fill the final spot in the rotation with Livan Hernandez (6-4, 3.10), Luis Atilano (6-4, 4.33), Craig Stammen (2-2, 5.13), or J.D. Martin (0-3, 3.03).

The recent bad times for the Washington Nationals cannot be underplayed, to be sure. However, the problems are easy to pinpoint. The defense can’t be fixed overnight, but it can be patched with the changes at short, second, and center field.

The offense, one of the better groups in the league over the first third of the season, suddenly stopped hitting. That happens sometimes. But they seem to be coming out of their collective funk and might be back to their early season form.

But if the starting rotation can indeed be improved through the additions of the walking wounded—Zimmermann, Wang, Marquis, Detwiler, and Scott Olsen—this could be a team capable of having a sizzling second half.

Sure, there needs to be a little bit of luck involved, but it is not out of the realm of possibility to see the team play above .500 in the season’s second half.

To make it to 81 wins, the Nationals will have to go 47-37 over the next three months.

Is it possible?

If the injured starters return on time, and if they return at their pre-injury levels, and if general manager Mike Rizzo and manger Jim Riggleman are willing to take a chance and redo their up-the-middle defense, then yes. It is possible.

75 wins is more likely, but if they can find a tailwind come August, an 81-81 season is within their grasp.

Here’s hoping.

THIS SUMMER COULD BE TIME OF CONTENTION FOR WASHINGTON NATIONALS

On Monday, the Washington Nationals will draft Bryce Harper, a “once in a generation” hitting prospect with their first overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft. On Tuesday, Stephen Strasburg, last year’s top pick and a “once in a generation” pitching prospect, will take the mound in his first ever major league game.

To borrow a phrase from former Redskins’ head coach George Allen, The future is now.

I have little doubt that the Nationals will contend in 2011, especially if Chien-Ming Wang returns from injury and regains the form that saw him craft back-to-back 19-win seasons with the Yankees in 2006 and 2007.

But what about 2010? Clearly, the team as presently constituted won’t reach .500 this year, though they will come close. Once the injured players return, a 75-78 win season doesn’t seem unreasonable.

But, we all know that this team is about to get a lot better. Strasburg will join the rotation on Tuesday and when last we heard, Wang is on schedule to join the team sometime after the all-star break.

If general manager Mike Rizzo thinks the team can make a serious run towards the playoffs, he will end the Roger Bernadina experiment in right field and bring in a reliable right fielder in exchange for some prospects. If not, expect right field to continue to be a debilitating sore on the Nationals lineup for the remainder of the season.

Let’s take a look at the team and try to guess what might happen in the coming weeks, beginning with the starting rotation:

Craig Stammen: 1-2, 5.33 11.0/2.4/4.5 .304/.344/.544 11 starts

Last season, Stammen’s batting average-against the first two times through the lineup was just .258 before it jumped by 80 points the third time through, so it was thought he would make an ideal long-relief pitcher. This season, however, he’s getting hit hardest in the first two innings.

Stammen was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse after a beautifully pitched game against Cincinnati on Sunday. It was the right choice.

Luis Atilano: 5-2, 4.24 9.4/4.3/3.3 .269/.349/.444 9 starts

Atilano’s ERA was high before Saturday’s game against the Reds, but an outstanding outing brought it down to an acceptable number. That high ERA was the result of three very bad starts (9.64 ERA) intermixed with his five very good ones (2.40 ERA). His 4.3 walks per nine-innings is high, but hits, batting average, on-base and slugging percents allowed are all very good.

And he’s on pace to win 15 games this season. Until he proves he doesn’t belong, he will remain with the Nationals.

John Lannan: 2-3, 4.79 10.6/4.1/2.9 .294/.367/.440 11 starts

Lannan’s numbers look bad, but he suffered through some pretty significant elbow pain early in the season. Not counting his first game back against the Rockies in Denver (which tends to skew statistics), Lannan has pitched brilliantly.

In his last three games, Lannan is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA, allowing opponent batters a .205 batting average, .261 on-base percent and a .292 slugging mark.

John Lannan is the model of consistency. He is only one of a handful of starting pitchers with an ERA below 4.00 in the last two seasons. No doubt, 2010 will make three in a row.

Scott Olsen: 2-2, 3.77 9.4/2.9/6.7 .269/.324/.365 8 starts

Oh, if Nationals’ starters could just stay healthy. Coming back from elbow surgery, Olsen started the year in the minors and got hammered in his first two starts back with the Nationals. In his last six starts, however, he’s been dominant: 1-0, 2.04, .248/.299/.293.

Olsen should return to the rotation in ten days, and if healthy, will remain for the rest of the season.

J. D. Martin: 0-1, 2.31 9.3/0.8/6.9 .250/.265/.542 2 starts

Last season, Martin was solid as a rookie, going 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA. But like most rookies, he got pasted in his first two starts but from that point on—in his last nine starts last year and his first two this season—Martin has pitched beautifully.

In 77 innings, Martin is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA, allowing 9.5 hits and 1.9 walks per nine-innings while striking out 5.6. Opponents are hitting just .261/.322/.456 against him.

There is nothing sexy about Martin. But he is a former first-round pick who gets major league batters out on a regular basis.

He deserves a spot in the rotation.

So thus far, here is my Nationals’ rotation for the second half of the season:

1—Stephen Strasburg

2—John Lannan

3—Scott Olsen

4—Luis Atilano

5—J.D. Martin

This, of course, doesn’t include Livan Hernandez (4-3, 2.22, 7.4/2.6/4.6, .222/.275/.363), without a doubt the team’s best starter thus far. That is because I don’t for a second believe that Livan will be with the team after the trading deadline on July 31st, perhaps even before.

No one expected Hernandez, 35, to pitch this well in 2010. He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2005. Since then, he’s been traded, released, and released again.

At 35, Livan is not in the team’s long-term plans, and any day now could return to his form as one of the worst starters in the National League. No doubt Rizzo is gauging his value as trade bait to a contender, perhaps packaging Livan and a prospect or two for a bona fide major league right fielder.

Really, if the Nationals aren’t going to try to contend this season, Livan’s presence is a luxury, perhaps even a problem.

Because waiting in the wings are two former all-star pitchers, Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang. Marquis is due to return to the Nationals in mid-July and Wang, who is not progressing as quickly as hoped, will probably be available two or three weeks later.

Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan and Scott Olsen are locks to remain in the rotation through the rest of the season (though Strasburg will be pulled when he reaches his first-year inning count, somewhere in early-to-mid September). But what if Luis Atilano or J.D. Martin struggles?

No problem. Just insert Wang or Marquis. In fact, they are going to be inserted regardless of how the staff is pitching.

By August, then, the rotation will include Strasburg, Lannan, Wang, Marquis and one of Atilano, Martin or Olsen.

Sometime after the all-star break, the Nationals will have no less than eight starting pitchers who have earned the right to be in the rotation. Some will slump, some will be injured, but among them will be five pitchers who are good enough to help the Nationals contend.

But if that is true, is the bullpen strong enough to support a contender?

Absolutely.

The Nationals will need seven solid arms in the bullpen. Take a look at the top seven relievers the Nationals currently have:

Miguel Batista: 0-2, 4.05 6.5/5.6/4.8 .207/.336/.360

Other than his high number of walks, Batista’s stats—especially his batting average against—are lights out. He is the weakest link in the bullpen right now, which says a lot about the way this group is pitching.

Tyler Walker: 1-0, 4.13 9.5/1.6/8.6 .278/.304/.472

Need someone to come in and strike a batter out, or to at least make sure you don’t walk him? Walker is allowing just 1.6 walks per nine-innings while striking out almost nine. He started off poorly but has pitched well recently.

Doug Slaten: 2-0, 1.93 9.7/4.3/5.4 .290/.371/.323

Slaten is walking too many, and giving up too many hits, but his 1.93 ERA is sparkling.

Sean Burnett: 0-3, 3.50 8.3/3.6/8.8 .235/.307/.353

Burnett started slowly but has redeemed himself recently and has now matched his numbers from last season, which was his career best.

Drew Storen: 1-0, 1.93 5.6/5.6/5.6 .185/.333/.222

5.6 walks, hits and strikeouts per nine-innings? I think all of those numbers are skewed by a low inning total. But his averages-against tell the real story. He’s done an outstanding job.

Tyler Clippard: 8-3, 1.66 5.0/4.3/10.1 .172/.279/.276

Just look at those slash lines one more time. I don’t have a thing to add.

Matt Capps: 0-3, 3.71 10.5/2.1/8.1 .286/.330/.429 18 saves

Take away the errors in Houston and Capps would have 20 saves, on pace for 58 for the year. Sure, he’s got a little Chad Cordero in him, but unless his defense (or the umpires) doesn’t make a mistake, he’s going to get the save. He’s hanging some sliders right now, but he’ll correct the problem soon enough.

The Nationals’ offense, as we all know, is good enough to make it to the playoffs. Yes, there is a big hole in right field but Rizzo certainly has enough spare parts to go out and get one if needed.

And the bullpen is about as good as it gets, and once the injured starting pitchers return, there is going to be a logjam like we’ve never seen before here in Washington.

The National League is made up of several very good teams and a bunch more average ones. Strasburg, a right fielder, and the return of the players currently on the disabled list would be enough to get the Nationals to 84-87 wins.

Will that be enough to get to the playoffs?

I don’t know. And unless the answer to that question becomes a cut-and-dried yes, I don’t see the Nationals trading any of their future for a preemptive pennant chase this summer.

Stay tuned, though. Whatever happens is going to happen soon.

J.D. MARTIN DESERVES TO BE IN THE NATIONALS STARTING ROTATION

Everyone had forgotten about J.D. Martin until he took the mound for the Washington Nationals this past weekend. With Scott Olsen’s arm still sore, Martin was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to fill in against the San Diego Padres.

Though he took the loss, he pitched well, allowing just four hits and one earned run in six innings, striking out five while walking no one.

Martin has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. In the past two seasons—both with the Chiefs—Martin has a fine record of 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, allowing just 7.6 hits and 1.2 walks per nine-innings while striking out 6.2.

I still believe that Martin will one day become a permanent fixture in the Nationals’ rotation, a John Lannan clone.

And there is nothing wrong with having two John Lannan’s in the rotation.

An 11th-round afterthought in 2005, Lannan climbed the minor league ladder quickly, going a combined 12-3, 2.87 before finishing the season with the Nationals where the 22-year-old went 2-2, 4.15.

Since then, Lannan has won 20 games and been the team’s presumptive ace.

If the Nationals could find just one more pitcher to come out of nowhere, the team’s future would seem far more secure than in past seasons.

And Martin just seems to be the logical choice to do just that.

It’s not that Martin wasn’t a known commodity in the baseball world. The Cleveland Indians chose the high school pitcher in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft, using their compensation pick for the departed Manny Ramirez.

Martin had tremendous control and a good fastball with movement when he began his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the Indians organization, he went a combined 19-6, 3.17, allowing 2.5 walks per nine innings while striking out 11.

He was dominant.

However, his strikeouts all but disappeared in 2004 as he toughed through an 11-10, 4.39 season in the Class-A Carolina League. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped to six and his arm felt sore towards the end of the season.

There were signs of an arm injury, but it was hoped that an off-season of rest would help Martin regain both his strength and his fastball.

And it seemed to work. Ten games into the 2005 season, Martin was 3-1, 2.38 and was again striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. However, the sore arm returned and he was forced to undergo reconstructive “Tommy John” surgery that July.

He returned late in 2006, and over the next three years crafted a combined record of 15-8, 3.31, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, in 2008, his last year with the Indians, he was primarily a reliever; the team didn’t feel he was good enough—or strong enough— to be a starter any more.

Believing that he could still be an effective starter, Martin left the Indians as a six-year minor league free agent and looked for a major league franchise with pitching woes and therefore a quick path to the big leagues.

His first call was to the Washington Nationals.

He quickly became the team’s premier minor league pitcher, going 8-3, 2.66 in 15 starts with Triple-A Syracuse in 2009.

But he was not the same pitcher anymore. Martin began pitching to contact and threw strikes, lots of them. With Syracuse, he struck out six per nine innings while walking just one, an amazing walk to strikeout ratio at any level.

In nine minor league seasons, Martin had compiled an outstanding record of 56-28 with a 3.29 ERA and yet he’d never had the opportunity to pitch in a major league game.

That changed, however, when the Nationals’ Scott Olsen was lost for the season with an arm injury and the team desperately needed a fill-in arm.

Enter J.D. Martin.

In 15 starts with Washington in 2009, Martin went 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA.

He showed he had the ability, the tenacity, and the desire to succeed at the major league level. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well, yet by the time he walked off the mound, he more often than not had his team in a position to win.

But let’s look at his internal numbers and compare then with the aforementioned Lannan, the Nationals’ best starter over the past two seasons.

Hits per 9 innings:

Lannan: 9.2

Martin: 9.9

Homers allowed per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.0

Martin: 1.6

Walks per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.0

Martin: 2.8

Strikeouts per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.9

Martin: 4.3

Baserunners per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.35

Martin: 1.42

In virtually every category of statistical significance, the two were nearly identical. It would seem that the Nationals have indeed found their second out-of-the-blue starting pitcher.

But the news just gets better, just as Martin did as the season progressed.

In his first four starts, Martin gave up 13 runs, 24 hits, and five walks in just 16 innings. Since then, however, he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation. Take a look at Martins numbers compared to Lannan’s in their last 11 starts of 2009:

Innings Pitched:

Martin: 60

Lannan: 63

ERA:

Martin: 3.71

Lannan: 4.95

Hits per nine innings:

Martin: 10.1

Lannan: 10.2

Walks per nine innings:

Martin: 3.0

Lannan: 2.6

Strikeouts per nine innings:

Martin: 2.1

Lannan: 2.0

Batting average-against:

Martin: .264

Lannan: .263

On-base percentage allowed:

Martin: .330

Lannan: .332

Slugging percentage allowed:

Martin: .455

Lannan: .437

Percentage of pitches that were strikes:

Martin: 63%

Lannan: 63%

Line drives allowed:

Martin: 17%

Lannan: 25%

Team record in starts:

Martin: 8-3

Lannan: 4-7

Once Martin gained some experience at the major league level, he was able to match Lannan pitch-for-pitch over the last third of the season. So what’s the difference between team “ace” John Lannan and Martin?

About 55 career starts. In other words, experience.

He wasn’t given much of a chance in spring training, pitching far less innings than his competition (Craig Stammen pitched 19.2 innings, Martin just 10). It was obvious he was heading to Syracuse.

But just like last year, an injury to Scott Olsen gave Martin a chance in 2010, and he took advantage of it. Initial reports from the Nationals indicate that Martin will start at least one more game for the injured Olsen.

If he pitches well again, Martin might remain with the Nationals for a while longer.

Most of us have scoffed at former general manager Jim Bowden’s penchant for signing minor league pitchers off the scrap heap. It just never seemed to work.

This time, however, Bowden was right.

J. D. Martin might not be a sexy option for the team’s rotation, but he’s still young, gets major league batters out, and is at worst a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Here’s hoping, anyway.