Stephen Strasburg's Former Catcher Promoted To Potomac



Selik In Junior College

That a player was promoted from Low-A Hagerstown to High-A Potomac this early in the season is a surprise to no one.

That it wasn't Bryce Harper is.

Twenty-three-year-old Cameron Selik, the Nationals' 22nd round pick in last year's amateur draft, is now with the Potomac Nationals of the Carolina League and should make his first start with the team sometime this weekend.

The San Diego native had a good-but-not great career with the University of Kansas, and began his professional career last summer as a reliever for the short-season Vermont Lake Monsters. In 28 innings, he went 1-0 with a 2.54 ERA, striking out 10.2 per nine-innings while walking 4.1.

He moved into Hagerstown's rotation this year and dominated, going 3-0 in five starts with a minuscule 0.31 ERA (best in all of minor league baseball), striking out 9.3 per nine-innings and dropping his walk rate from 4.1 last year to 0.9 this season. His strikeout-to-walk ration last year was an above average 2.4:1. This year it's 10:1.

John Sickels said that the 6'3," 240 pounder is a "strong legs" type of pitcher with a decent fastball that tops out at 92 mph and breaking ball with a "nasty" bite to it.



Starting For The Kansas Jayhawks

A few weeks after Sickels' scouting report was published, Selik hit 95 mph a couple of times in a start against Baylor and he seems finally over his Tommy John Surgery from three years ago.

He grew up catching Stephen Strasburg and started his pitching career in junior college as a member of the rotation as well as being one of the team's closers.

MASN's Byron Kerr talked to Suns' play-by-play announcer Bryan Holland who said that "He has a devastating slider that slips low and away. Cameron also has a great differential in speed between his fastball, slider, and changeup. This makes him virtually unhittable when the batter has two strikes on him."

It would seem that Selik has joined the cabal of Nationals' minor league pitchers on the fast track to the major leagues, but a 23-year-old pitcher in the South Atlantic League should dominate the competition.

Let's see what happens in Potomac this summer before jumping to any conclusions about his future.

South Atlantic League Pitching Can't Contain Bryce Harper

No matter what happens, Bryce Harper won't be playing baseball for the Washington Nationals in 2011.

That was the guarantee that came from pretty much every one within the organization.

Too much pressure on the kid, they said.

And a couple of weeks ago, they seemed to be clairvoyant. The kid with his own Sports Illustrated cover was batting .235 and hat just one home run. Since then, though, Harper is proving to be every bit the player we all thought he'd be.

In 32 at-bats since April 21st, Harper is batting .500 with six doubles and five home runs. He's driven in 14 runs. He slugging at a 1.156 clip and his on-base percent is .600.

He's now on pace for a record-setting season that would look like this:

At-bats: 569

Runs: 120

Hits: 205

Doubles: 60

Triples: 0

Home runs: 45

RBI: 150

Stolen Bases: 30

Batting Average: 358

On-Base Percent: .600

Slugging Percent: .697

OPS: 1.153

He's on track to walk 105 times while striking out 150. However, since mid April, he's walking more and striking out less, so those numbers will likely look a great deal different by September.

I wouldn't count on the Class-A South Atlantic League pitchers figuring him out anytime soon. They were getting him out easily during the season's first couple of weeks until Harper made an adjustment.

Harper is obviously dominating Sally League pitching. The question is how long the Nationals will let him remain before he is promoted to High-A Potomac. Right now, game time is little more than enhanced batting practice for the Las Vegas native and isn't helping his development.

Currently, Harper is ninth in the league in batting, third in doubles, home runs and RBI, sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percent. What makes his production even more impressive is his age. Catcher Chris Wallace has similar numbers (.384-7-24) to Harper but is 23. John Massanari (.388-7-23) is 25. Matt Curry (.375-4-19) is 24.

Bryce Harper is 18 years old and in his first professional season.

The team is probably beginning to firm up the date when Harper will be promoted to High-A Potomac, and there is little doubt he'll finish the 2011 season at Double-A Harrisburg. Another good spring (remember, he batted  .389/.450/.889 this year in Viera) and he could very well find himself as the team's starting center fielder this time next year.

This is a team that could make the jump from bad to good very quickly. With Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg on the team in 2012, just about anything is possible.

Marquis Mania in Washington

This time last year, Jason Marquis--one of the biggest names to sign with the Washington Nationals in the days before Jason Werth-- had started three games and lost all of them, limping into the clubhouse after that last one with a 20.52 ERA.

It was obvious that for the first time something was very wrong with his precious right arm. In 12 major league seasons, the 31-year-old had averaged 12 wins per season with a 4.54 ERA. Now, just a season removed from being an All Star, he was the worst starter on a bad team.

Eventually, bone chips were found and surgery was performed. He rejoined the team in August and went 2-6 with a solid 4.29 ERA. Marquis continued that good pitching into 2011; after Friday night's complete game win against the San Francisco Giants, he is now 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA, striking out 6.6 batters per nine-innings while walking just 1.8.

He is tough, he is a competitor, and last year was the first of his career that he didn't play in the post season.

He's a winner.

Many within the organization were hoping that he'd be healthy enough to trade sometime this summer for a prospect or two. He is, after all, in the final year of his two-year contract. But really, trading Marquis makes no sense at all.

The Nationals are expected to begin the 2012 season with a rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and John Lannan. The fifth spot could easily be filled by Livan Hernandez or one of the young-but-ready kids working their way up the system.

But Marquis should be that man. He's mature, he wants to win and his past record tells a story of a winner. The rotation needs a veteran presence, a guy who runs the clubhouse who can also still win half of his games.

And that's Jason Marquis.

Before the Washington Nationals can be great, they have to be steady. And to be steady, they must have a pitcher who can be effective every fifth day, someone who can protect the team and give them a chance to win each game he pitches.

Jason Marquis is worth his contract dollars, finally. But to make those millions worthwhile, the Nationals need to extend him for two more years.

And give the rotation's children a chance to grow up.

Bryce Harper Looking Better Every Day

After a slow start, Hagerstown's Bryce Harper is on a tear. In 62 at-bats, the 19-year-old is batting .323-5-18 for the Class-A Suns.

But take a look at what he's done expanded to 550 at-bats, a typical major league season:

Runs: 126

Hits: 180

Doubles: 45

Triples: 0

Home Runs: 45

RBI: 162

Stolen Bases: 36

Walks: 100

Strikeouts: 153

On-Base Percent: .425

Slugging Percent: .645

Ten days ago, he was hitting .235. Today, he's pretty much got the South Atlantic League pitchers figured out. Left there for the entire season, my guess is he'd hit somewhere around .325-30-110 with 30 steals. But I think the Nationals will want to challenge him again, possibly moving him up to High-A Potomac in July.

One thing's for sure though: he's every bit the player we thought he'd be.

Recent Losses Harder Because They've Become Less Expected

Sometimes, being a fan of the Washington Nationals can be very troubling.



Daniel Rosenbaum -- Pitcher



Seven seasons ago they marched into the All Star break in first place in the National League East with a record of 50-31. They added Preston Wilson and Devi Cruz for the pennant run and seemed ready to continue the magic all the way to the World Series.

Buster Onley was even asked at the All Star break if the Nationals could win the division. “Sure, why not!” was his reply.

 The Nationals returned after the All Star break confident and ready. But since then, Washington has gone 361-529, winning barely forty-percent of their games.

And yet throughout all this losing, all the embarrassment, all the jokes and all the refusal of so many quality players to come to Washington, the losses that are beginning to pile up now have been the hardest.





Because they are so close to being so good.

It’s one thing when the team loses 100 games and a quick glance at the rosters of the top two or three minor league teams verifies that there is no help on the way. But that’s not the case now. A quick count finds at least 20 players currently with Triple-A Syracuse and Double-A Harrisburg who will in the next couple of years don a Nationals uniform.



Some will be starters, one or two an all star, and many will fill support roles. But they’ll be here.

For years, the team had to hope that the few minor league players who were supposed to blossom did. Now, players who weren’t being counted on are stepping up.


After a couple of years derailed by injuries, Brad Meyers is 3-1 for Harrisburg with a 2.95 ERA. In 21 innings, he’s struck out 27 and walked no one. Brad Peacock, also with Harrisburg, is 2-1, 1.59, though his control isn’t quite as good as Meyers. In 17 innings, he’s struck out 21 and walked two.



No, the minor leagues aren’t loaded, but they are producing. By 2013, and with a little luck, it could produce an entire roster of capable major league players.

They’re t-h-a-t close.

Tyler Moore -- 1B

And the major league roster keeps showing flashes of brilliance that last a game or two before it returns to the ooze and muck of mediocrity.

The Nationals early season record is about where most of us thought they’d be, though things aren’t boding well for the rest of the season. They reached two games over .500 because an overachieving pitching staff made up for a lackluster offense.

But now—with the exception of Tom Gorzelanny last night—the starters are struggling right alongside the hitters.

No offense. No pitching. No hope?

No way.

These losses are difficult because we all know that hope is coming. Stephen Strasburg will be back by next season and Bryce Harper should be the every-day center fielder by 2013. One or two of those young pitching prospects (Tom Milone, Brad Meyers, Daniel Rosenbaum, etc.) will further embolden the starting rotation.

And really, other than left field and first, the Nationals’ starting eight is pretty much set once Harper makes it to Washington.

It’s because the future looks much brighter that these losses are harder to take. At some point, the Nationals will start winning games regularly and leave this nightmare behind. I mean, you start Stephen Strasburg and have Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos fill the middle of your lineup.

What’s not to like?

So, for now, the losses will hurt a little more because they are less expected. But in the end, the team will likely win 75 or so games this year (I mean, the offense has to warm up eventually) and another Jayson Werth type of free agency signing over the winter should produce a team on the periphery of contention.

It has to happen sooner or later. Really.

Atilano And Martis: Great MLB Starts Quickly Turned Sour

Three weeks ago, the Nationals designated-for-assignment pitcher Shairon Martis, who ultimately cleared waivers and was signed to a minor league contract. He'll start the season with the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs.

Yesterday, the team designated Luis Atilano for assignment. If no one claims him on waivers, he'll likely be a teammate of Martis' in Syracuse.

There is no question that both players are little more than what General Manager Mike Rizzo likes to call "inventory," players with no real major league future but who gives the team depth in case something happens.

Like when Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg get shelved for a year because of Tommy John surgery.

I would imagine that both players will play again in the major leagues though they'll likely fill the last spot on the roster if they do. And somewhere else. Not here.

In 2009, Martis earned the final spot in the Nationals' rotation in Spring Training. Martis, who threw a no-hitter against Panama in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, started strongly for Washington.

In his first nine games, he had a record of 5-2 with a 4.01 ERA and a .254 batting average-against. In his last seven games before returning to the minors, though, he was just 0-3 with a 6.34 ERA.

Atilano was also 5-2 in his first nine starts with an even lower 4.11 ERA and .258 batting average-against. But over his last eight games before injury/ineffectiveness/demotion took their toll, he went 1-5, 6.49.

Atilano lost effectiveness because too many players were getting base hits. His three walks a game--though a little high--were acceptable for a rookie. His .306 batting average-against, though, was not.

Martis' problems were just the opposite. His batting average-against was just .254 but he couldn't get the ball over the plate. He walked 4.4 batters per nine innings.

But mostly, major league hitters figured them out. If you don't have a 95 mph fastball, you have to rely on trickery to get hitters out. And if you don't trick them, you get drilled.

With Mike Rizzo's preference for power pitchers, I doubt we'll ever see either pitcher back with the Nationals. And that shows you how far the team has come.

If Nationals Can't Sign Any More "Big Names," 2011 Should Be Used To Prepare For Contention in 2012



Adam LaRoche: He Just Won't Sign

It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

Chris Marrero Just Can't Field

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal leadoff hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.



Milone: Could Be Much Better Than John Lannan



Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

Kimball:  Brooklyn Tenacity to DC

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

ZACK GREINKE COULD BE ANOTHER FELIPE LOPEZ FOR BREWERS AND THAT AINT GOOD

Zack Greinke got his “Welcome to Milwaukee” press conference yesterday and he seemed genuinely happy to be there. He had made it very clear over the past year or so that he wanted to play for a winner and now he has his wish.

I don’t have a problem with Greinke wanting to play for a winner and eventually forcing his trade; over the years, many star players were stuck on bad teams and several ultimately demanded a trade to get the chance to win.

I get it.

But none of those players gave up on his team because they were losers. None of them saw their numbers decline because they couldn’t give their all for a losing team.

Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009 was special. He went 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, striking out almost 10 batters per game while walking just two. And over the first two months of last season, he continued pitching at that same level.

But by June, he was starting to give up chunks of runs and he seemed less focused. His September ERA was 5.92 and he began to look like he didn’t care.

A year earlier, he told the Kansas City press, “I don’t want to play anywhere else,” but by the end of last season he switched agents so that his trade could come quicker. There were grumblings all summer that he had just given up.

Felipe Lopez: That Didn't Work Out Well

Marc Serota/Getty Images If this is true—and I have no verifiable proof to that end—why would Brewers’ players want him on their team? And certainly, Nationals fans would have had mixed feelings about the acquisition of Greinke because of their experience with a player who not too long ago dogged it for two seasons in Washington.

I was stunned when the Nationals obtained Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in a multi-player trade four years ago. They gave up just two relievers and a couple of utility players.

Kearns was a rising star who had averaged .265-25-95 over a 162-game season to that point in his career. His difficulties since, though, had nothing to do with desire.

Lopez, however, is another story.

He made it clear that he wasn’t happy with the trade that brought him to Washington, but he was a professional and I believed the attitude wouldn’t affect his performance.

Over his first five major league seasons, Lopez averaged .260-18-72 over 162 games and batted .291-23-85 the year before the trade. He was on his way to a similar season when he was shipped to Washington in early summer.

In 2007, his only complete season with the Nationals, Lopez batted .245/.308/.352 with nine homers and 50 RBI. At the time of his release the following year (at the trade deadline), Lopez was batting .234/.305/.314.

Austin Kearns: He Gave The Nationals 100%

Christian Petersen/Getty Images That’s pretty bad.

The Cardinals signed him shortly after his release, and in 156 at-bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with four homers and 21 RBI. That’s twice as many homers and runs batted in with the Cardinals in half the at-bats.

That’s pretty good.

Since then, Lopez has batted .280/.351/.392 for the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Brewers and Red Sox, averaging 10 home runs and 60 RBI.

So in the five seasons before playing for the Nationals, he was a solid offensive shortstop. And in the two-plus years after leaving the Nationals, Lopez was a solid offensive shortstop.

But in parts of three seasons with the Nationals, he sucked big-time.

The only difference was that he didn’t want to play in Washington. And because of that, he didn’t give his teammates 100 percent.

Oh, I don’t think he realized that is what he was doing. I’m sure that in his mind, he was playing as hard as ever.

But he wasn’t.

The same thing applies to Zack Grienke: He was Cy Young himself when he felt content, but the moment he was someplace he didn’t want to be, he became the most mortal of pitchers. Beginning in June last season, his ERA was 4.92. He gave up four or more runs in 11 of his last 21 starts.

For four months, he was just another pitcher.

If the Brewers play well next season, Greinke stands a good chance of winning another Cy Young award. Over the last five seasons, he has a 3.32 ERA, which translates to about 2.82 in the National League.

He’ll be dominant.

But what if the Brewers aren’t in a pennant race? How long will it take before he loses focus and his numbers again become mediocre? Will he ask—once again—to be traded to a contender?

Zack Greinke, Felipe Lopez or any one player just isn’t worth it.

ZACH GREINKE TOO MUCH LIKE J.D. MARTIN TO BE WORTH FOUR PROSPECTS

Now, don't everyone gang up on me. I'm just thinking out loud for a minute.

Since the end of the season, the Washington Nationals have been chasing a bevy of top-flight starting pitchers including the Royals' Zach Greinke. The 26-year-old is so good that the asking price for the former Cy Young Award winner is four top prospects.

And that's the starting point.

The Royals have been clear as to the type of players they would want in return. From the Nationals, they would want a replacement starting pitcher (possibly John Lannan, but probably Jordan Zimmermann), a middle infielder (most definitely Ian Desmond), a major league outfielder (Roger Bernadina and/or Mike Morse), a catcher (Wilson Ramos because Derrek Norris is still two years away) and a lower-level minor league outfielder, perhaps someone like Eury Perez.

I doubt they would take Lannan, who is a good number-three starter, but just a number three. Jordan Zimmermann is a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter but with Stephen Strasburg on the mend, he'll slide down to the two-spot next season.

Though he is considered one of baseball's best pitchers, Greinke has had only one outstanding season. In 2009, he was Cy Young himself, going 16-8, 2.16. Very impressive, indeed.

But in his other six seasons, from 2004 to 2008, and 2010, Greinke pitched well but wasn't a star. He gave no indication that he could carry a team in a pennant race.

Zach Greinke: 5.80 ERA in 2005

The Nationals have on their roster a pitcher who has done fairly well in parts of two seasons in Washington. J.D. Martin is a former first-round pick and has produced as a minor-league free agent who made it to the majors without his 96 mph fastball.

Let's compare Greinke's numbers (all except those from that magical 2009 season) and compare it to Martin's efforts, both based a full 162-game season:

Greinke 10-13, 4.25, 9.6/3.4/7.4, 1.35 Whip (base runners per inning)

Martin 9-13, 4.13, 10.2/2.5/4.9 1.34 Whip

To be fair, Greinke's sample is six times larger than Martin's and I am in no way suggesting that they are equals when on a major league mound. That said, the internal numbers aren't that different. Greinke gives up fewer hits but walks more batters. Their base runners allowed per inning is almost identical. And Martin's ERA is a little lower as well.

I didn't include Greinke's Cy Young Award season in his career numbers because I am not sure that he can ever duplicate it. In that one season, he allowed 1.4 fewer hits and .3 walks per nine-innings while striking out 2.1 more batters. His ERA was 1.66 runs lower than his career average.

Last season, all of his internal numbers returned to career form and his ERA was the highest its been since 2005.

It seems like the Royals want four or five prospects for a pitcher that doesn't exist. They are negotiating a trade for the 2009 Greinke who may never, probably will never, return.

Matt Garza of Tampa Bay, whose asking price is probably half that of Zach Greinke, has very similar career numbers. Let's compare them based on a 162-game season:

Garza: 12-13, 3.97, 8.7/3.2/7.1, 1.31 Whip

Greinke: 11-12, 3.82, 9.1/2.3/7.6, 1.36 Whip

Both players are 26-years-old, both players allow about the same number of base runners per game, and both players average about the same number of wins per season.

Garza hasn't had that really special season like Greinke but neither has he totally bombed (Greinke went 5-17, 5.80 in 2005).

I don't understand all the love for Greinke. One season does not a career make. If the Nationals really want to trade for a pitcher, let it be Garza. He's just as good as Greinke and can be had for much less.

And really, how much better would either of them be over a full season than J.D. Martin, at least based on past history? If they all start the same number of games, I'd say four or five games.

Is the $12 or $13 million in additional payroll costs worth four or five games next season?

Perhaps 2011 should be the last season that the Nationals can afford to look closely at pitchers like J.D. Martin, guys who aren't great but can do quality work from the back of the rotation.

Martin is capable of a 10-10, 4.10 type of season, the kind of pitching most good teams have at the back of the rotation.

Forget Greinke, consider Garza, and give Martin a try. That's my take, anyway.

FORGET THE PITCHING, NATIONALS NEED OFFENSE NOW

There are many glum faces along the National League East corridor this morning. The best starting rotation in the league just became the best in all of baseball, perhaps the best in the last half-decade or so.

Suddenly, moves made by the other four teams—the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals—seem to have gone for naught. Instead of being just a few games better than the other contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a division all their own.

And the cackling can be heard straight down I-95.

Many are suggesting that the Nationals immediately stop their pursuit of pitching upgrades, that adding Carl Pavano through free agency or trading for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza is fruitless.

Cliff Lee could beat John Lannan 5-2 and Zach Greinke 3-2. A loss is a loss regardless of its beauty.

Moreover, the cost for those other pitchers just increased as Lee’s suitors now turn to those four or five available top pitchers, driving up their cost.

What’s a moribund franchise to do?

The first problem is that the Jayson Werth signing will make little sense if that ends up being the only major change the Nationals make over the winter. Those $18 million dollars just can’t be justified as a stand-alone contract.

But I agree with the pundits that it doesn’t make much sense to bring in those hot-shot starters if they give you only a minimally better chance to win the game.

If the Nationals open the 2011 season with just the pitchers they now have, this is how the rotation might look with projected statistics based on how they’re preformed the past two or three seasons & based on a 162-game season:

1—John Lannan 10-14, 4.10, 9.4/3.3/4.6

Lannan’s 2010 season hurt his career numbers but a sore elbow certainly hurt his performance last season. He was one of just a handful of pitchers to have an ERA below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009. On a good team, Lannan could be counted on for: 12-10, 3.75

2—Jordan Zimmermann 6-10, 4.71, 9.3/2.9/8.8

Zimmermann’s numbers are deceiving. He’s had many great starts over his two seasons but a few rookie-roughed-up debacles skewed his stats. He’s a borderline number-one starter or a top number-two. Zimmerman’s good team stats with a little experience: 15-11, 3.44

3—Jason Marquis 14-12, 4.37, 9.1/3.5/4.9

The above numbers are Marquis’ actual statistics from 2007-2009. After elbow surgery and time on the disabled list last season, there is no reason to believe that Marquis cannot return to his solid though not stellar performances of the last five or six seasons.

4—Livan Hernandez 10-12, 3.66, 9.2/2.7/4.8

After a few difficult seasons, Hernandez returned to form last season (see above). He is nothing more than a number-four or number-five starter, but he does his job effectively, pitching 200 innings, shortening the game and giving his team a chance to win.

There are a few players who might secure the final spot in the rotation:

Ross Detwiler 3-14, 4.74, 10.3/ 4.2/5.2

Those numbers are ugly, but good rookie pitchers sometimes pitch ugly. Last season, heading into his final start against the Phillies, Detwiler—the Nationals first round pick in 2007—had a fine record of 1-2, 2.52. He has shown he can be a starter in the National League. It’s just the matter of if he will. Projected record for good team with some experience: 10-10, 4.10

Yuneksy Maya 0-3, 5.88, 10.4/3.8/4.2

Signed last summer as a free agent, Maya was one of Cuba’s best pitchers on their international traveling team. He started five games in the minors and did well, winning a game and crafting a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just 7.6 hits per nine-innings while striking out nearly eight.

This winter, he was even better. Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Maya went 4-1, 0.56, striking out a batter an inning while allowing less than four runners per game.

With the Nationals last fall, he looked nervous during his first four starts but settled down in his last game against the Mets, allowing two earned runs while striking out four in six innings.

Maya could be the key for the Nationals’ rotation. He dominated during the World Baseball Classic in 2009, finishing with a 1.23 ERA. He has the talent to be a true number-three starter, and that will happen once he gains experience. The question is whether he gains that experience in the minors or with the Nationals in 2011.

And if Stephen Strasburg follows fellow teammate Jordan Zimmermann, he will return from Tommy John Surgery sometime in August, further solidifying the rotation.

To be clear, the Phillies will win a lot games against a lot of different teams next season, the Nationals included. Nothing is going to change that. Adding pitchers like Carl Pavano or Matt Garza will make the Nationals better, but not better enough to succeed within the division.

The only way the Nationals can improve now is to spend their available contract dollars—dollars that would have been spent on Cliff Lee or Matt Garza—on productive hitters.

Adam LaRoche has to be the club’s new first baseman. He can be counted on to provide 25 home runs and 100 RBI. His defense is good. Here are my offensive projections for the team:

1B—Adam LaRoche (assuming): .265-25-90

2B—Danny Espinosa: .250-20-70, 25 steals

SS—Ian Desmond: .270-15-65, 20 steals

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .300-30-110

LF—Josh Willingham: .265-24-75

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .270-2-40, 40 steals

RF—Jayson Werth: .290-30-100

C—Pudge & Ramos: .265-8-50

That’s a very good offense, again assuming the Nationals can sign LaRoche. But there are some power-hitting center fielders out there. What if the Nationals were able to trade three or four prospects—like they would have for Zach Greinke—and replace Nyjer Morgan with a 280-25-75 kind of hitter?

Better yet, Jayson Werth has shown he can play center field. Move him over and let Mike Morse (15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year) play right field every day with Roger Bernandina as his backup.

That could be a formidable offense.

I believe in this team. It is one or two more good players from crossing that elusive .500 finish line. But the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia move just increased the cost of those remaining top pitchers by twenty or thirty-percent.

Forget the pitching and go with the offense, Nationals, and let all those arms culled during “The Plan” help lead you through the beginning of “Phase Two.”

DERREK LEE TO THE NATIONALS? NOT FOR A SECOND

Bill Ladson of nationals.com reported on Sunday that the Washington Nationals are interested in signing first baseman Derrek Lee.

Oh, please.

If the Nationals indeed were to sign the 34-year-old, it would undue virtually all the goodwill the team received when it signed right-fielder Jayson Werth a week ago.

There are just too many reasons to believe this is not true.

First, Derek Lee is getting old and his stats are reflecting that. Over the last 10 seasons, Lee averaged .292/.378/.521 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI. Last season, Lee split time with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves and hit .260/.347/.428 with just 19 home runs and 80 runs driven in.

True, a thumb injury slowed him early in the season but he was mostly healthy when he joined the Braves and his numbers over the last 39 games in Atlanta were only peripherally better.

His clutch-hitting statistics also dropped in 2010. In 2009, Lee batted .320/.424/.600, about as good as it gets. Last season, he hit .283/.411/.552. With the game late or close, he dropped from .302/.381/.512 to .241/.355/.484.

And while he would be a defensive upgrade from Adam Dunn, while he is an above average defender he isn’t great. And again, he is a 34-year-old above average defender.

I’m guessing that this “news” is the Nationals trying to pressure Adam LaRoche into signing with the team, making him worry that he might lose the opportunity if he doesn’t act soon.

Probably the thing that makes the least sense is that Lee is a right-handed batter. If in fact the Nationals were to sign him, they would have a righty batting second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

That just doesn’t work at the major league level.

He’s old. His numbers are declining. He bats from the right side.

I just can’t believe that the Nationals are really interested in Derrek Lee.

SHOULD NATIONALS TRADE FOR ZACH GREINKE IN A 4-FOR-1 SWAP?

The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they are ready to trade star pitcher Zach Greinke right now, or maybe they won't. Or maybe they will, only later, sometime around next season's July 31st trade deadline.

Or not. They have him under contract for two more seasons at $13.5 million per year.

That sounds a lot like the Toronto Blue Jays just hours before Roy Halladay was shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies for a truck load of prospects.

Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com reported last week that the Royals were seeking 4-5 players in return for their Cy Young Award winning pitcher. Today, he wrote that in return for Greinke, Kansas City would want 1) a starting major league pitcher to take his place, 2) a speedy center field prospect, 3) a young middle infielder and 4) a catcher who isn't too far away from the major leagues.

Though Greinke is just 26, he has been pitching in the major leagues for seven seasons. Over his first three years, he wasn't very good, averaging just 8-14, 4.63, 10.0/2.3/6.4. Since 2008, however, he's been superb, going 14-12, 3.25, 8.5/2.2/8.4.

So, just like Jayson Werth, the Nationals would be paying for just three good years.

Let's assume the Royals would accept four players. They would first need a major league pitcher to replace Greinke. That would probably be John Lannan. Their "speedy center fielder" could be Eury Perez (Low-A) if they didn't need a major league ready pitcher or Roger Bernadina if they did.

They would probably be given their choice of middle infielders Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa or Stephen Lombardozzi. They would certainly accept either Wilson Ramos or Derek Norris as their catcher.

So basically, it would cost the Nationals John Lannan, Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina and Wilson Ramos to get Zach Greinke.

Is it worth it?

Certainly, the loss of John Lannan would hurt. Over 162 games, he has averaged nine wins and a 4.10 ERA with a slash line of 9.4/3.3/4.6. He's just 25 and would be an ideal number-three or four starter for a good Nationals team.

The Royals have a decent shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt (.259-16-78 but with a .298 on-base percentage) but he's 29 and is due to make $6 million in 2012. That's just not going to happen, not in Kansas City. Desmond would be an able replacement.

But the Nationals could easily make due without Desmond. Danny Espinosa, who has good power, a great glove and strikeout problem, could move to short and Stephen Lombardozzi (.293/.387/.415 in the Arizona Fall League) could take over at second base.

Roger Bernadina could become a .290-20-80, 20 steals kind of outfielder or he could become a total bust. The Royals might see that too and prefer Eury Perez, the 20-year-old Dominican who just completed his fourth year of professional ball. He's averaged .312/.390/.402 along with 17 doubles, seven triples, five homers, 55 RBI and 65 stolen bases.

I'm not sure which catcher the Royals would prefer. Derek Norris will begin the season at Double-A Harrisburg and has averaged over 162 games .261/.414/.462 with 33 doubles, 25 homers and 88 RBI. He is just 21.

Ramos is just a year older and over five minor league seasons has averaged .285/.332/.431, 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 80 RBI. His defense is much better than Norris and already has 79 at-bats in the major leagues.

Because they need their catcher sooner rather than later, they'd likely pick Ramos (although Norris will end up being a much hitter).

So the Nationals can add a great pitcher to the rotation and give up Lannan, Perez, Desmond and Ramos to get him. The team can afford to lose Lannan, especially when Stephen Strasburg returns. They won't miss Bernadina and no one even knows who Eury Perez is yet. And chances are that Espinosa and Lombardozzi will be the team's long-term double play combination anyway.

And assuming that Jesus Flores is healthy, the Nationals can wait on Norris for another year, maybe two.

Finally, after five years of waiting, Washington finally has enough prospects that they can make one of those four-for-one or five-for-one deals. But should they?

In a word, no.

Over the last three seasons, Zach Greinke has averaged 13 wins to John Lannan's 9. The fact that both pitchers play for bad teams cancels out that part of the equation. That means that Greinke is worth about five more wins per season than Lannan.

That's one win for Ian Desmond and one for Wilson Ramos, one more for John Lannan and the last one for Eury Perez.

It's just not worth it. There were rumors that the Nationals could have gotten Tampa's Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) for Desmond and Tyler Clippard. That makes more sense. That's the kind of trade the team should jump on

WITH ADAM LAROCHE, NATIONALS COULD CLIMB ABOVE .500

As the third day of baseball's Winter Meetings come to a close, I'm going to make a couple of assumptions regarding the future of the Washington Nationals. Perhaps neither will occur, but let's assume for a moment that they will.

First, I fully expect that the Nats will sign Adam LaRoche as the team's first baseman, probably a two year deal for $15 million or so.

Second, I think that Josh Willingham will remain as the team's left fielder in spite of reports that he will be traded if the team signs a significant bat to play at first (like LaRoche).

Take a look at the Nationals probable lineup for next season, assuming LaRoche and Willingham are with the team.

The statistics are the player's 2010 numbers based on them playing a full season. I chose to use Nyjer Morgan's career average over 162 games because I don't think it is possible for him to have a second season as bad as last year:

CF  Nyjer Morgan: .283/.344/.360   2 HR  36 RBI  44 SB

SS  Ian Desmond: .269/.308/.392  10 HR  65 RBI  17 SB

3B  Ryan Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510  29 HR  98 RBI 4 SB

RF  Jayson Werth: .296/.388/.532  27 HR  85 RBI  13 SB

LF  Josh Willingham: .268/.389/.459  24 HR  81 RBI  8 SB

1B  Adam LaRoche: .261/.320/.468  27 HR  109 RBI  0 SB

2B  Danny Espinosa: .214/.277/.447  35 HR  87 RBI  0 SB

C    Pudge/Ramos: .267/.298/.355  7 HR  62 RBI  3 SB

A couple of caveats regarding the numbers: All eight players' stats are based on 162 games so Zimmerman's numbers for example reflect four additional home runs and 13 more RBI.

Secondly, Espinosa's stats were based on a relatively small sampling, so his home run total (35) and stolen bases (0) are skewed. I expect him to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases next year if he's playing every day.

That can be a very productive lineup in 2011 if Nyjer Morgan returns to form, something I think he can do. And any team that can bat Adam LaRoche sixth is going to score a lot of runs.

If Willingham stays, manager Jim Riggleman will have to find a way to get Michael Morse into the lineup. He said earlier this week that he hoped to find 300 at-bats for the developing slugger. There is a way he can come close to that.

Though LaRoche hits pretty well against lefties (.264/.297/.462), Morse could play 15 or so games at first against the top lefties in the league. And with Willingham's problems remaining healthy, Riggleman could give him regular days off throughout the season, allowing Morse another 20 games in the lineup. When you add in pinch-hitting and perhaps a few games relieving Zimmerman at third, the 28-year-old could get 200 at-bats in 2011.

If Willingham is traded-a distinict possiblity-I would guess that that Morse would be the everyday left-fielder. Had he played 162 games last season, he would have batted .289-30-85. In reality, a full-time Morse would likely hit around .280-25-75, roughly the same as Josh.

How good will the Nationals be in 2011? It depends on the starting pitching. Both the offense and the bullpen seem strong enough now to give the team a chance to win every night.

Right now, the starting rotation includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Livan Hernandez and either Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler or J.D. Martin. Late in the season, of course, Stephen Strasburg returns.

One quality arm, someone along the lines of Matt Garza, and the Nationals are at least a .500 team, maybe better. If they do the impossible and somehow sign Cliff Lee--or trade for Zach Greinke--they could come awfully close to 85 wins.

It it difficult to believe that the Nationals could be that improved in 2011, but that of course is predicated on the team signing Adam LaRoche.

Here's hoping ....

IS BRANDON WEBB READY TO PITCH OR IS HE THIS YEAR'S CHIEN-MING WANG?

It's been a roller-coaster type of day already, and it's not even noon.

Multiple sources were suggesting this morning that there was a "mystery team" that was willing to give free agent pitcher Cliff Lee that coveted seventh year that he badly wants, something the Yankees are adamant they will not do. There was even a report that the Nationals were about to officially make that offer with dollars that were in the "ridiculous" range.

But Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post put the kibosh on that story pretty quickly.

So we're back to Carl Pavano and Brandon Webb as possible additions to the rotation.

It's hard to find out exactly what is the status of Webb, who outside of a one-game stint in 2009 hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2008. During his best years (2005-2008), Webb averaged 18-9, 3.23 similar numbers to Chien-Ming Wang's 19-6, 3.87.

His shoulder surgery didn't repair any damage but rather cleaned out the loose pieces and floaties within the shoulder. By this past September, he was ready to pitch but the Diamondbacks said no, probably for fear of making him any more valuable as a free agent.

Webb pitched two innings in the team's instructional league and gave up two runs and three hits in two innings.

But that's all I know. He could be ready to take the ball on Opening Day or he might spend the summer in Viera. I've put out some feelers to try to get a better feel for his health and prognosis, but as of yet, he's just another injured pitcher who is coming back from injured reserve.