With New CBA In Place, Nationals May Kick-Start Last Phase Of "The Plan"

Jim Bowden At His First Press Conference In D.C.

"The Plan" is not something we've heard much about recently.

It wasn't too long ago that the Washington Nationals divested itself of any meaningful talent, trading the few quality players they had away for prospects while hoarding their draft picks in the yearly amateur draft.

In some point in the future, we were assured, the team's young talent would rise like cream to the top, filling all of the gaping holes on the major league roster.

And it seemed to work.

Last season, five of the team's eight starting position players were either cultivated through the team's minor league system or received as minor league prospects through trades. The same goes for three of their starting pitchers and their top two relievers.

In another two or three years, another crop of young pitchers will be ready to make the jump to the major leagues, giving the team one of the most formidable young rotations in the game.

Oh, and that kid, you know, the one who is supposed to be maybe the best hitting prospect since Ken Griffey Jr, he'll certainly be in the starting lineup by 2012.

I think his name is Bryce Harper.

Ken Griffey Jr.

But the way baseball operates has undergone a major change in the last few weeks, enough so that the Nationals might not want to wait for the next wave of rookies to mature.

With the handshake that accompanied the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, new rules have been placed in effect that may force the Nationals to look for those final pieces for a pennant run earlier than expected.

First, the addition of a second wild card entrant--possibly next year but no later than 2013--makes it much easier for a good-but-not-great team to get into the playoffs. As Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post pointed out in yesterday's column, all but one 90-win team over the past 15 years would have gotten into the playoffs under the new system.

Secondly, the cost for signing premium free agents has been reduced. Though the formula has become more complicated--no more "Type A" and "Type B" free agents, a team can still lose its top draft pick if the player was offered arbitration, but the guaranteed salary they would be forced to pay is so high that its likely that fewer players will be offered arbitration. My guess is this will allow the Nationals to be more aggressive with their free agent offers this winter.

And lastly, Washington will never again be able to do what they did last summer. The Nationals were able to draft four players with first round talent and then went way over-slot to sign them. New rules will make this a near impossibility in the future.

The Nationals, then, have three good reasons to make a splash this off season. Baseball Karma has given them a golden opportunity, if, that is, they can get to 90 wins. That means they will have to find a way to win 10 more games than last season.

How do they do it?

Having Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 1.50) back  will certainly help. He'll be worth at least a couple of more wins in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Jordan Zimmermann (8-11, 3.18) will be available for the entire year and should give the Nationals another win. And Chien-Ming Wang (4-3, 4.04), who pitched in the majors for the first time in almost three seasons, will be far better as the team's number-five starter than was Tom Gorzelanny last year. Count on an extra win from him.

That's four wins down and six to go.

First baseman Adam LaRoche has a career 162-game average of .267-26-92 to go along with his stellar defense. Last year, arm and shoulder problems limited him to .172-3-15 in just 43 games. He is working out now in Phoenix is should be 100% ready by the beginning of spring training. A healthy LaRoche has to be good for another two wins.

All Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is also coming off an injury-plagued season.  The 26-year-old played in just 101 games and his power was sapped due to an abdominal injury. A healthy Zimmerman will add another win, easily.

That gets the Nationals up to 87 wins, give or take.

The team can likely find two or more wins if they are able to sign or trade for a quality, veteran pitcher, someone along the lines of Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson (as free agents) and Wandy Rodriguez or Gio Gonzalez as potential trade targets.

That puts the team at roughly 89-73.

If the Nationals stay with an in-house solution in center, someone like Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina, they are not going to find the extra win or two among that group.

But you would think that the maturation of the team's younger players should be worth a couple of wins. Take a look at what those players did in 2011 and what they should be able to do this year:

Wilson Ramos: (2011) .267-16-52      (2012) .265-20-65
Danny Espinosa: (2011) .236-21-66     (2012) .260-25-75
Ian Desmond: (2011) .253-8-49          (2012) .270-10-50

If all goes well, if there are no heartbreaking injuries to deal with, or Werth-like slumps to live through or jaw-dropping regression by the kids to watch in stunned silence, the Nationals should finish the year with 85-90 wins in 2012, perhaps 92-93 if they find both that veteran pitcher and quality center fielder they are after.

Based on history, 89 wins could get them in the playoffs if the second wild card spot is available in 2012, and 90 wins will.

Can they make it? Here's hoping.