Does A Potential Mark Buehrle Signing Make The Nationals That Much Better?

Mark Buehrle -- Next Nationals Starter

Washington Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that by the time baseball's Winter Meetings conclude next week in Dallas, he wants to have come away with a veteran starting pitcher capable of not only being the rotation's leader but also its teacher.

C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt are the three most likely candidates that Rizzo is pursuing. If the team signs either lefty--Wilson or Buehrle--the Nationals will probably package John Lannan with a couple of  prospects to get that last piece of the we-are-ready-to-contend puzzle, a center fielder able to lead off.

Reports indicate that Buehrle is the pitcher Rizzo wants the most and it looks like he may command a three-year, $45 million contract with an option year. Lannan will probably make an arbitration-enabled $3.5 to $4 million in 2012.

Is Buehrle worth that much more? Here are their 2011 statistics:

Mark Buehrle:  13-9, 3.59 (9.7/2.0/4.8)
John Lannan:   10-13, 3.70 (9.5/3.7/4.7)

Not too much of a difference, at least when you compare what their incomes will be in 2012.

The bottom line, then, based on their respective 2011 stats:
1--Over the course of a nine-inning game, Lannan will give up 1.5 more base runners than Buehrle
2--Over a 200 inning season, Lannan will give up 82 runs, Buehrle 79.

So over a full season (30 starts and 200 innings), John Lannan will allow 45 more base runners that will translate into three more earned runs.

John Lannan: Mr. Consistency

How much better would essentially trading Lannan for Buehrle make the Nationals? Not much, really. But if Buehrle signs as the number-three starter and Lannan moves down to number-four, that fill out a  very nice rotation.

Here would be the starters and their probable (but it's a guess) ERA's:

1--Stephen Strasburg (3.00)
2--Jordan Zimmermann (3.20)
3--Mark Buehrle (3.50)
4--John Lannan (3.75)
5--Chien-Ming Wang (3.60)

That is a rotation capable of winning one of the two National League Wild Card spots.

And of course the team will need one or two more starters to cover for injuries and poor performance. It's that way every season.

Brad Peacock: Needs His Own Rotation Spot

How about one of these three (2011 stats shown):

1--Ross Detwiler: 4-5, 3.00 (8.6/2.7/.5.6)
2--Tommy Milone: 1-0, 3.81 (9.7/1.4/5.6)
3--Brad Peacock: 2-0, 0.75 (5.3/4.5/3.0)

I'm not sure I see a kink in the Nationals' pitching armor as long as Lannan remains in the rotation and it wouldn't surprise me--especially if they find that coveted center fielder--for the team to head into the last weekend of play with a playoff spot already secured.