Saturday, March 21, 2009

With Opening Day about two weeks away, I thought now was a good time to cover all of those stories that are important but couldn't find a way to work into a full column.

Steven Strasburg:
Wow.

After dominating all of college baseball last year, he's gotten even better in 2009. In 34 innings, Strasburg has struck out 74 while walking just seven and has a 1.54 ERA.

ESPN's Peter Gammons reported on Saturday that Strasburg's agent Scott Boras may ask for as much as 6 years/$50 million while Buster Olney reported that Strasburg may double the highest bonus ever paid for a top prospect and receive as much as $20 million just to sign his contract.

Let me be clear about this: acting general manager Mike Rizzo and team president Stan Kasten need to sit down with Boras on draft day, with the Lerner's checkbook open and pen poised and simply say, "how much?"

No matter what happens, the Nationals will overpay for the 22-year-old who is still months away from throwing his first professional pitch. Whatever he ends up getting, he's not worth it.

But they have to sign him for a couple of reasons. First, after not signing last year's first round pick, Aaron Crow, the team would be eviscerated if they lose Strasburg. I don't believe a team has ever not signed their top pick two seasons in a row.

Second, Strasburg is a very special pitcher who is as close to a can't-miss prospect as was ever created. Buster Olney said that a senior major league scout recently told him that Strasburg is the best amateur pitcher ever.

Olney called him the "LeBron James of baseball." That means that the stadium will fill with peripheral baseball fans every time he pitches. That means that he will (almost) earn every penny of that bonus.

If Strasburg was asking for all that money from the Nationals and the Nationals were a real 59-win team, that is, a team that was devoid of talent instead of leading the major leagues in lost player days due to injury, I'd say no, don't draft him. He's not worth it.

But the Nationals are a young and maturing team. Signing Strasburg might be that final piece of the puzzle that transforms a pretender into a contender.

And quickly.

Nick Johnson:
I still don't get why Manny Acta and Mike Rizzo think that having Nick Johnson at first in 2009 will make them a much better team.

Granted, Nick has shown that he is a very solid first baseman, but the only thing he does extraordinarily well is get on base. His power numbers, especially his home runs, is sub par. Johnson's career high is just 23 and he's averaged just 21 in a 162 game season.

And while his defense has been very good, he committed 15 errors in his last full season (2006), and his .988 fielding percent was a full eight points below the league average.

And don't forget that he's been available for just under 54% of his team's games since he joined the Yankees in 2001.

And don't forget that he's in the last year of a four-year contract, and regardless of how well he might do in 2009, there is no way that the Nationals are going to resign him given his history.

And don't forget that Johnson batted just .220 last year and is currently at .182 (6-33) with a .341 on-base percentage. Eventually, all those missed at-bats are going to take a permanent toll. Maybe we're beginning to see that now.

And Josh Willingham, the man who would be pushed to the bench if Johnson plays first, is beginning to warm up with the bat. Willingham, a notoriously slow starter, began the spring hitting 1-18, but since has gone .500 (6-12) with two homers and has a fine .378 OBP.

The only way any of this makes sense is that this is all a reuse. The Nationals have no desire to keep Johnson, and are trying to increase his value by telling anyone who will listen that he is their first baseman, period.

I hope so. Josh Willingham is capable of hitting .260-25-85 and playing solid defense. He needs to be the team's left fielder.

Alex Cintron:
Cintron, signed to a minor league contract last winter, is playing well this spring, batting .320 with an .887 OPS. And the 31-year-old has hit nearly that well throughout his career. Cintron batted .286 for the Orioles last season and has a career .277 batting average. In 2003, he hit .317-13-51 for the Diamondbacks. That year, he made just eight errors at short.

He seems to be a Royce Clayton but with a little more pop in his bat.

Friday, March 13, 2009

It's been a long time since the Washington Nationals have been shown any real respect by the media, though to be fair, they really haven't deserved any. Half way through the team's inaugural season in Washington, the Nationals were atop the National League East with a 50-31 record.

Since then, the Nationals have gone 233-333, winning just under 41% of their games.

And the post-2008 chatter has been particularly difficult to listen to, as the mocking is no longer limited to the quality of the team on the field. Smiley-gate destroyed the team's Dominican program and led to Jim Bowden's forced resignation.

Some reporters have found it difficult to discuss the Washington Nationals without shaking their heads and chuckling under their breath.

But quietly and cautiously, and well under most reporter's radar, the outlook for the Washington Nationals is beginning to change.

Really.

In the last week, there have been many stories written about the team, and while they remain generally cynical and mostly negative, buried deep within the prose are sentences that infer a sense of hope.

One reporter said that the team's offense was not nearly as bad as he thought, saying that "Bowden's desperate moves over the past three years may begin to pay dividends in 2009. A 25 game improvement-to 84 wins-isn't out of the realm of possibility."

Another, who had derided the Nationals' organization just a year ago, told his readers that "Amazingly, the Nationals could field an offense that includes a 40-homer guy (Dunn), two 30-homer men (Zimmerman, Dukes) and two more (Willingham, Milledge) with more than 20 home runs. Throw in Ronnie Belliard and Jesus Flores, each capable of hitting 15 homers, and the Nationals could easily go from the worst offensive in the National League to one of the more solid in 2009."

Are the Nationals that much better than they have been? Let's take at the National League East position players and see how the Beltway Boys compare. The rankings by position are subjective but I think they are very accurate:


First Base

1. Ryan Howard
2. Adam Dunn
3. Carlos Delgado
4. Casey Kotchman
5. Gaby Sanchez

Dunn is clearly the class of every first baseman not named Ryan Howard. Delgado has had a brilliant career but he's 37 and time is slowly catching up with him. Casey Kotchman is what he is, a serviceable first baseman who's not going to get any better. And Gaby Sanchez, though impressive as a minor leaguer, has just eight major league at-bats.

Second Base

1. Chase Utley
2. Dan Uggla
3. Kelly Johnson
4. Ronnie Belliard
5. Luis Castillo

There aren't any better second baseman in the National League than Utley and Uggla. Kelly Johnson, just 26, has averaged .265-16-75 in his young career. Luis Castillo, though a career .292 hitter, has gotten old quickly and at 32, is pretty much an afterthought. Ronnie Belliard is a solid-hitting, slightly above average second baseman, and I'm glad to have him.


Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. Jose Reyes
4. Yunel Escobar
5. Cristian Guzman

Wow. Christian Guzman hit .316 last year and he's the worst shortstop in the division. Above him are three superstars and a guy who one day may become a superstar.

Third Base

1. David Wright
2. Ryan Zimmerman
3. Chipper Jones
4. Jorge Cantu
5. Pedro Feliz

Though I believe that Ryan Zimmerman will be better than David Wright one day, he's not there yet, and Chipper's age, and poor defense, makes him a distant third on the list. Jorge Cantu has hit at least 28 homers twice in his career and he's just 26. Feliz isn't much of a third baseman.

Catcher

1. Brian McCann
2. Jesus Flores
3. Brian Schneider
4. John Baker
5. Carlos Ruiz

Brian McCann is one of the best catchers in the game and is light-years ahead of Jesus Flores, who has the talent to become an occasional National League All-Star. Brian Schneider's once shining star has faded in the last two years. Baker is untested and Ruiz is holding the position only until someone else comes along.

Left Field

1. Raul Ibanez
2. Garrett Anderson
3. Josh Willingham
4. Jeremy Hermida
5. Daniel Murphy

Though Ibanez and Anderson are both 37, they still outperform the Nationals' Josh Willingham. Jermey Hermida might be best of the lot one day, and Daniel Murphy hadn't been tested enough at the major league level to be listed any higher than 5th.

Center Field

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Lastings Milledge
3. Shane Victorino
4. Cameron Maybin
5. Josh Anderson

Because it's been a decade since Carlos Beltran first hit 20 homers and drove in 100 runs, we think of him as being on the downside of his career, but he's just 31. Victorino and Anderson are serviceable but not great players. Lastings Milledge might one day be a .285-25-100, 30 steals kind of player, a Carlos Beltran lite if you will.

Right Field

1. Elijah Dukes
2. Jason Werth
3. Cody Ross
4. Ryan Church
5. Jeff Francoeur

Prior to last year, I'd have listed Jeff Francoeur at the best right fielder in the division, but his horrid 2009 makes me wonder if he'll ever rebound. It's very hard, after all, to hit .239 with a .294 on-base percentage. Ross is a high strikeout, low OBP guy, and Werth is a decent complimentary player. I've always been a Ryan Church fan, and still believe he could end up hitting .280-25-90 one day, but it's time for him to do it.

The Nationals compare favorably to the bullies in the National League East. No, they are not the Phillies or the Mets, but they are close to being the equal of the Braves and they are certainly better than the once-again stripped down Florida Marlins.

How might the Nationals' offense produce in 2009? Here is my early prediction:

1B: Adam Dunn - .250-40-100
2B: Ronnnie Belliard - .275-15-60
SS: Cristian Guzman - .280-8-51
3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .290-28-110
LF: Josh Willingham - .265-24-80
CF: Lastings Milledge - .280-24-85, 30 steals
RF: Elijah Dukes - .290-32-105, 30 steals
C: Jesus Flores - .260-13-60

If the Nationals' pitching, particularly the middle relief, can be just major league average, the Nationals could conceivably win 80-85 wins. If Daniel Cabrera pitches up to his talent level (something he's never done), and Jordan Zimmermann pitches like a Rookie of the Year candidate, the Nationals could finish-and this is difficult to wrap my mind around-3rd in the division, ahead of both the Braves and Marlins.

I'm not saying, mind you. I'm just sayin' ......


Thursday, March 12, 2009

Josh Willingham A Reserve? Not Hardly

When the Nationals traded Emilio Bonifacio, P. J. Dean and Jake Smolinski to the Florida Marlins last winter for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham, a couple of things seemed certain.

First, Olsen would become the Nationals number-two pitcher and second, Josh Willingham would become a sorely needed offensive weapon for the team, likely in left field.

Over his career, after all, the 30-year-old has been a solid hitter. Since joining the Marlins in 2004, Willingham has averaged .266-25-85 over a 162 game season.

For a team that was just about dead-last in every significant offensive category last year, Willingham was a major upgrade.

But now it looks like he's not going to be a starter, at least so says Nationals.com beat writer Bill Ladson.

Even Willingham himself acknowledges that - for the moment anyway - he may not have a position to play.

"If you look at our outfield, you have me, Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns. Those are five guys who haven't sat on the bench during their careers," Willingham said. "Somebody is going to be sitting on the bench. It's going to happen unless [the Nationals] make a move. I never sat on the bench ever [for a full season]."

Though I'm surprised that this uncertainty remains this late into Spring Training, I understand it, though I really don't believe it.

So who starts and who sits (and more importantly, who gets traded)?

Adam Dunn has ten-million reasons to start for the Nationals in 2009, and though Elijah Dukes doesn't have the career bona fides of Dunn, he is most likely the better player. And Lastings Milledge, who cost the Nationals two starting players (Ryan Church & Brian Schneider), has too much talent and too much upside not start.

But that's not surprising.

Most of us assumed that Adam Dunn would start at first base, and not left field, allowing Josh Willingham the chance to play left.

None of us - well, almost none - thought that there would be a scenario in which Nick Johnson would be the team's starting first baseman in 2009.

And as good as he can be, he shouldn't be given that opportunity.

Forget for a moment that Nick Johnson has never played a major league season without ending up on the disabled list. Since he joined the Yankees in 2002, Johnson has been on the roster - and off the disabled list - for just 54% of his team's games.

Why would Mike Rizzo and Manny Acta think that 2009 would be any different?

But let's forget his injury prone nature for just a moment and consider his long-term value to the team.

Or lack thereof.

Desperately seeking stability for a highly unstable organization, then general manager Jim Bowden signed Johnson to a three-year, $16.5 million-dollar contract in the spring of 2006.

Thus far, Johnson has earned $11 million dollars of that contract while playing in just 38 games, earning $434,000 per game.

Nick Johnson is in the final year of that contract. Regardless of how well he plays, no matter if he stays off of the disabled list the entire season, the Nationals are not going to attempt to re-sign him.

So why play him every day and bench Willingham, a player who is under team control through the 2011 season?

The answer is simple: it's not going to happen.

Though Nick is hitting just .158 this spring, his power numbers (2 homers, 4 RBI) and his on-base percentage (.360) look just fine. It makes sense, then, to trade him before he either gets hurt or begins to look lost at the plate.

And it makes no sense that Willingham will be one of the Nationals' two reserve outfielders either.

Willie Harris has signed a new contract with the team and has secured one of those roster spots. Austin Kearns, in part because of his $8 million dollar contract and in part due to his injury last season and overall poor performance since coming to Washington, isn't tradeable, which means he will likely be the other reserve outfielder.

But Mike Rizzo knows all this. He understands that Willingham needs to start and that the team doesn't really have a place for him as a reserve.

He's just trying to create additional value for Johnson.

If Rizzo were to say that Josh Willingham was a starter coming out of Spring Training, other general managers would know that Nick Johnson wasn't part of the team's plans and his value would be even lower than it is now.

How low? My guess is that the best the Nationals can hope to get for Nick is an above-average middle reliever (something they desperately need).

In his two full major league seasons, Josh Willingham has a .271 batting average, 30 doubles, 3 triples, 24 homers, 81 RBI and a .360 on-base percentage. Injuries limited him to just 102 games last year, but had he played a full season, he would batted .254 with 31 doubles, 8 triples, 23 homers, 77 RBI and a .364 RBI.

In other words, Willingham is consistently above-average.

Nick Johnson might start the season at first, but it won't be long before he's traded, freeing Adam Dunn to play first and returning Josh Willingham to left.

It's going to happen. It has to happen.

And Lord help the Nationals if it doesn't.




Starting Pitching Looking Good For Now


It's been more than a month since the Nationals signed Adam Dunn, a move that has changed the conversation about baseball in Washington.

It's been almost a month since the gates of the Carl Barger Baseball Complex opened its doors to the first wave of Nationals' players.

Enough time has passed, and enough change has occurred, to take a look and see how the Nationals are doing in 2009.

Overall Performance: Everyone says that wins don't matter in Spring Training games but the only teams that say that are the ones that are either winning or have a history of winning.

Teams like the Nationals need wins in Florida to gain confidence.

But since moving to Washington in 2005, the Nationals have never had a winning record in spring training. Their best record came in that first year when they went 14-16. Since then, however, the Nationals have a combined record of just 32-58.

Yes, records are important.

This year, the Nationals are playing right at .500, typically winning when their starters are playing and losing when they aren't.

And I think that number, more or less, areindicative of the coming season.

The starting pitching is looking at worst acceptable, at best intriguing. John Lannan and Jordan Zimmermann look to anchor the rotation, while Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen look like pitchers who could win, or lose, on any given night.

The problem lies in the 5th spot in the rotation, where Colin Balester and the rest just haven't looked very good. And while Shairon Martis has pitched well, I don't think he's really being considered for a starting job, at least for now.

The interesting thing is that the pitcher most likely to fill the 5-spot isn't even the property of the Nationals. Steven Strasburg, who will likely be the number one pick in this June's amateur draft, is 3-0 for the San Diego State Aztecs this spring with 45 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 20 innings.

If all goes well, he'll likely be the Nationals' 5th starter by September.

Those five pitchers - Lannan, Cabrera, Olsen, Zimmermann and Strasburg - are all young, talented, and capable of cementing their place in the rotation for the next decade.

But wait, there's more.

The Nationals have a fine group of young pitchers still developing but who - maybe this year, maybe next - will be able to step into the starting rotation if injuries, trades or poor play require it.

Martis, Balester, Ross Detwiler, Jack McGeary, Josh Smoker and Colton Willems is a solid group from which one or two will emerge and become competent major league pitchers.

So the Nationals seem to be in good shape in terms of starters, both at the major league and minor league levels.