Tom Milone: Picture John Lannan Only Better

Tom Milone With Double-A Harrisburg In 2010

Tom Milone took the mound for the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs a few nights ago and the crafty left-hander (crafty is the term used for lefties who can’t throw a fastball much faster than 90 mph) threw eight shutout innings, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out nine.

Who is this guy that most Nationals’ fans have never heard of before? Think John Lannan but with a little better control.

I have enjoyed watching Lannan pitch the last three years, partly because he’s good, but also because I love it when underdogs succeed at the major league level.

An 11th-round pick in 2005 out of Siena College (17-5, 3.86), Lannan was considered to be no more than another organizational arm who might one day become a lefty specialist out of the pen.

In his first two seasons (Vermont and Single-A Savannah), that is how he pitched.

In 35 starts, Lannan was just 9-13 with a 4.89 ERA. In 2007, he blossomed and cut his hits per nine innings in half, and began hitting his spots.

In the span of just a couple of months, he was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg, then Triple-A Columbus and finally to the major leagues, where he started six games for Washington.

He finished the season with a record of 12-3, 2.31 ERA, and a slash line of 6.6/3.0/5.3 (hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings).

Lannan’s career 32-43 record and 4.02 ERA with the Nationals is deceiving.

Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum had 26 quality starts two seasons ago, and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee had 23.

Milone As A Potomac National in 2009

Lannan had 21.

In other words, he’s still young, still learning and he still gets clobbered when he doesn’t spot his pitches well.

Last season—probably due to a nagging arm injury—Lannan was horrible in the first half of the season, going 3-6, 5.76 before being sent down to Double-A Harrisburg in June. When he returned, however, he was his old self.

In 10 starts after being recalled, Lannan was 5-2, 3.42. Seven of those were "quality starts."

With a bit more luck and a little more offensive support, Lannan could win a dozen or so games each year for the next decade. He’s an ideal No. 5 starter.

In two starts this year, he’s pitched 10 innings, allowing 12 hits and three walks while striking out seven. Lannan’s ERA is 3.60.

Milone, like Lannan, is a lanky lefty who must pitch to spots to be successful.

He is eighth all-time in games started for Southern Cal.

In 2007, he was named Pitcher of the Year in the prestigious Cape Cod League with a record of 6-1 and a 2.92 ERA. He struck out 46 and walked just seven in 52 innings.

His next summer was spent in Wenatchee, Wash., pitching in a West Coast summer league. In 51 innings, Milone went 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA.

Against some of the best college hitters, Milone combined to go 12-2 (2.81 ERA) while striking out 101 in 103 innings. He walked just 13.

But a lack of a dominating fastball, and a so-so 16-17 career record with a 4.78 ERA at Southern Cal, relegated Milone to a 10th-round afterthought in the 2008 amateur draft.

John Lannan With Potomac

Though major league scouts didn’t think much of his ability, Milone was confident that he would succeed.

Pitching for Vermont and Hagerstown that first year, Milone crafted a record of 1-6 but with a solid 3.51 ERA. He allowed 10.3 hits per nine innings but just 1.3 walks.

Nationals’ scouts saw enough to promote him to High-A Potomac for the 2009 season. And just like Lannan two seasons earlier, Milone blossomed.

After watching him pitch in a bullpen session early in the year, Potomac pitching coach Paul Menhart approached Milone about adding a cut fastball to his repertoire.

Pitching to contact is fine, he said, but disguising his 87 mph fastball would help him greatly.

Milone’s cutter looks like his fastball but dives at the last second. Against right-handers, it first dives in, then away as it crosses the plate.

His ERA was 3.89 when he began to throw his new pitch in early July.

By the end of the year it had dropped to 2.91, best on the team. His batting-average against, .275 the season before, was just .252 with Potomac.

Milone’s fastball tops out at 87 mph, but usually sits in the 84-86 mph range. His curveball is sharp and about 10 mph slower than his fastball, providing good separation.

His changeup, though, is by far his best pitch; one he can throw wherever he wants and at any point in the count.

His control is remarkable. Over his minor league career, Milone has walked just 68 while striking out 310, more than a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Milone has trouble when he’s not hitting his spots. When facing a walk, he tends to throw his fastball down the middle of the plate, a bad place for a slow fastball.

But that is a peril that all contact pitchers face. If you don’t have an “out” pitch, there just aren’t many safe pitches to throw.

Overall, Milone’s minor league numbers are similar to—and in some cases much better than— Lannan’s. Both players have started exactly 62 minor league games:

Record

Lannan: 22-20 (.524)

Milone: 29-20 (.610)

ERA

Lannan: 3.95

Milone: 3.08

Opponent’s Batting Average

Lannan: .258

Milone: .255

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine-Innings

Lannan: 8.9/3.4/6.3

Milone: 9.0/1.5/7.6

No, that's not a misprint. In 62 games he has allowed just 1.5 walks per nine-innings. To give that number some context, Stephen Strasburg, who in considered be one of the best control pitchers ever, allowed 2.1 walks per nine innings in his time with Double-A Harrisburg last year.

No, Milone is not Strasburg but he has Strasburg control.

One would think that Milone might have a major league career similar to Lannan, that of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starter who can be counted on to win 10 to 14 games a year.

Sure, Milone is not on any watch list and isn’t considered much of a prospect. But Lannan didn’t show up as a true prospect until the 2008 season, after he had already pitched in the major leagues.

Milone has a prospect grade of “C” and is lumped together with a bevy of other non-prospect types like Taylor Jordan, Nathan Karns and Pat Lehman.

I am in no way suggesting that Milone is going to repeat the success of Lannan.

But he has similar tools, has even better control, and at 23, is mowing down older and more experienced opponents in the Eastern League.

Lannan was also 23 when he pitched for Harrisburg.

Yes, it seems unlikely that a 10th-rounder will eventually make the Nationals’ starting rotation, especially when you consider that the Nationals will have a solid rotation when all of the team’s walking-wounded return to the major league roster.

But isn’t that the same thing we all said about Lannan, the 11th-round selection from Siena College?

He’ll pitch for Triple-A Syracuse this year and will be just a phone call away from the major leagues.

Suddenly, the Nationals have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young pitchers, and it’s about time. The 2011 season is looking better and better with each passing day.

With Adam La Roche Out For The Year, Who Is Nationals' Long-Term Answer At First Base?

Adam La Roche

Now that Adam La Roche is "officially" out for the year, you have to wonder how his loss is going to effect the team beyond the last 100 or so games remaining in 2011.

La Roche will likely be 100-percent healthy by next spring and if given the opportunity will provide the Nationals the semi-big bat that they expected this season.

Over his six full seasons in the major leagues (2005-2010), La Roche has averaged .271/.340/.488 with 28 homers and 97 RBI over a full 162 game season, never missing any significant time due to injuries. There is no reason to believe that he won't return from shoulder surgery and hit .275-20-80 while playing flawless defense.

But do the Nationals want to do that? I doubt that the team will keep him beyond his current contract which expires at the end of the 2012 season. But if not La Roche, who then is the Nationals long-term solution at first base?

Well, it could be Michael Morse, who took over for La Roche earlier this year. In his first four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Morse batted .300/.365/.397 with just 3 homers and 37 RBI in 300 at-bats. But since coming to Washington in 2009, the 29-year-old has hit .290/.344/.515 with 28 home runs and 88 RBI in 503 at-bats.

Michael Morse Sans Beard

This season, he is on pace to hit .290-30-104 while playing flawless defense at first. I keep saying that he's no Adam La Roche, but thus far he's been just that.

The Nationals also have two pretty solid prospects who could take over for La Roche in 2013, Chris Marrero at Triple-A Syracuse and Tyler Moore of Double-A Harrisburg.

The 22-year-old Marrero is a former first-round pick who former General Manager Jim Bowden chose for his bat. Now in his sixth minor league season, Marrero has averaged .282-20-85 per season and is on pace to bat .290-20-83 for the Chiefs this season.

The problem has always been his glove. Drafted as a third baseman the year after the Nationals took Ryan Zimmerman, he was moved to the outfield and quickly failed there. From 2008-2010, he played exclusively at first base and averaged 20 errors per season. But his defense looked vastly improved this past spring and in 61 games this year Marrero has committed just two miscues.

Several coaches have publicly said that Marrero's glove is now ready for the major leagues.

Moore, at 24 is two years older than Marrero (Marrero was drafted directly out of high school) and wasn't considered much of a prospect until last season when he launched 31 homers and drove in 111 runs for Class-A Potomac. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg and is currently on pace to hit .273-26-80 for the Senators.

Defensively, he's always been good enough but not particularly great. he's averaged 10 errors per season and has a career .990 fielding mark (La Roche, considered one of baseball's best defenders, has a career .994 fielding percent).

So, what to do?

Assuming that he stays healthy, La Roche brings a stellar glove and power bat to the Nationals. Forget 2011; he is Mr. Reliability. Wind him up and he'll hit .275-20-80, certainly enough production when considering the runs he saves in field.

Morse has now proven he is an everyday major leaguer. He plays acceptable defense in left and seems above-average at first. He's 29 and looks to be able to provide 25-30 homers a year for the next four or five seasons for the Nationals. He could play in left field just as easily as at first.

Chris Marrero

And now Marrero's glove is as major-league ready as his bat. No, he'll never be a star, but he could become a quality complementary piece that all champion caliber teams need to be successful.

Tyler Moore could be the best pure power hitter among the group. Over the past two years, he's averaged a home run every 17 at-bats. Over a 550 at-bat season, that works out to 33 home runs (Marrero has averaged a homer every 26 at-bats, or about 21 homers over a full major league season).

I think the wild card in all of this is Bryce Harper. If all goes as planned, Harper will make it to the major leagues sometime next year, probably near the half-way point of the season. But when he gets here, where will he play? I don't think he's ready to be an everyday center-fielder, which means he will probably take over in left (I doubt a 19-year-old is going to supplant Jayson Werth in right).

So here's how the dominoes will fall:

Morse will remain at first for the rest of this season. Laynce Nix will be the team's left-fielder against righties and is on pace to hit .296-22-64 this year. This off season, the Nationals trade for a real center fielder who can succeed at the top of the order, perhaps using Nix as part of the package.

Adam La Roche returns in 2012 and becomes the team's first baseman with Morse returning to left. When Harper finally makes it to Washington, the contending teams will begin looking to add veteran players for their pennant chases, players like Adam La Roche.

Tyler Moore With Mississippi State

The Nationals trade La Roche, move Morse back to first, and Harper takes over in left. Werth remains in right and center is covered by the player they traded for, the guy that probably cost them a pitching prospect or a back-end-of-the-rotation major leaguer (or both), either Moore or Marrero and one more player, maybe Roger Bernadina or Nix.

With Stephen Strasburg back in the rotation and Bryce Harper in the outfield, the difference between just "another" season in 2012 and a special one could be that guy who ends up leading off and playing center.

Hopefully, they find the right guy.

Projecting Bryce Harper

Nestled around a slow start and a short slump this year, Bryce Harper is producing the kind of season befitting baseball's premier minor leaguer. 

His high school graduating class received their diplomas about the same time that Harper crushed a 480-foot home run a few days back. 

Instead of kissing his high school sweetheart at the prom, he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher. 

One day soon--probably after he plays in the South Atlantic League All Star game--Harper will be promoted, likely bypassing High-A Potomac and their bad playing field and landing at Double-A Harrisburg, where he will play against baseball's best prospects. 

My guess is that he'll reach Washington sometime next season, just after the Nationals have gained all the leverage they can with his potential arbitration and free agent status. And their he'll stay until the riches of a Scott Boras free agency come calling.

But how good has he been thus far in 2011? His offensive statistics, projected over a full season look like this:

AB: 506--Runs: 98--Hits: 172--Doubles: 33--Triples: 2--Home Runs: 33--RBI: 103--Steals: 30--Walks: 80--Strikeouts: 122. Add to this a .341 batting average, .433 on-base percent and .607 slugging mark and it seems remarkable that he hasn't yet been promoted. 

And if based on a major league 162 game season, he'd be on his way to hitting .341-38-117 with 30 stolen bases.

Harper will likely settle in to center field this time next year and will bring another potent bat to the Nationals' lineup. A middle-of-the-lineup that features Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse, Bryan Harper and (possibly) Adam LaRoche will have little trouble scoring runs. 

Add a (hopefully) healthy Anthony Rendon and this truly can be a team that contends in 2012.