With Adam La Roche Out For The Year, Who Is Nationals' Long-Term Answer At First Base?

Adam La Roche

Now that Adam La Roche is "officially" out for the year, you have to wonder how his loss is going to effect the team beyond the last 100 or so games remaining in 2011.

La Roche will likely be 100-percent healthy by next spring and if given the opportunity will provide the Nationals the semi-big bat that they expected this season.

Over his six full seasons in the major leagues (2005-2010), La Roche has averaged .271/.340/.488 with 28 homers and 97 RBI over a full 162 game season, never missing any significant time due to injuries. There is no reason to believe that he won't return from shoulder surgery and hit .275-20-80 while playing flawless defense.

But do the Nationals want to do that? I doubt that the team will keep him beyond his current contract which expires at the end of the 2012 season. But if not La Roche, who then is the Nationals long-term solution at first base?

Well, it could be Michael Morse, who took over for La Roche earlier this year. In his first four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Morse batted .300/.365/.397 with just 3 homers and 37 RBI in 300 at-bats. But since coming to Washington in 2009, the 29-year-old has hit .290/.344/.515 with 28 home runs and 88 RBI in 503 at-bats.

Michael Morse Sans Beard

This season, he is on pace to hit .290-30-104 while playing flawless defense at first. I keep saying that he's no Adam La Roche, but thus far he's been just that.

The Nationals also have two pretty solid prospects who could take over for La Roche in 2013, Chris Marrero at Triple-A Syracuse and Tyler Moore of Double-A Harrisburg.

The 22-year-old Marrero is a former first-round pick who former General Manager Jim Bowden chose for his bat. Now in his sixth minor league season, Marrero has averaged .282-20-85 per season and is on pace to bat .290-20-83 for the Chiefs this season.

The problem has always been his glove. Drafted as a third baseman the year after the Nationals took Ryan Zimmerman, he was moved to the outfield and quickly failed there. From 2008-2010, he played exclusively at first base and averaged 20 errors per season. But his defense looked vastly improved this past spring and in 61 games this year Marrero has committed just two miscues.

Several coaches have publicly said that Marrero's glove is now ready for the major leagues.

Moore, at 24 is two years older than Marrero (Marrero was drafted directly out of high school) and wasn't considered much of a prospect until last season when he launched 31 homers and drove in 111 runs for Class-A Potomac. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg and is currently on pace to hit .273-26-80 for the Senators.

Defensively, he's always been good enough but not particularly great. he's averaged 10 errors per season and has a career .990 fielding mark (La Roche, considered one of baseball's best defenders, has a career .994 fielding percent).

So, what to do?

Assuming that he stays healthy, La Roche brings a stellar glove and power bat to the Nationals. Forget 2011; he is Mr. Reliability. Wind him up and he'll hit .275-20-80, certainly enough production when considering the runs he saves in field.

Morse has now proven he is an everyday major leaguer. He plays acceptable defense in left and seems above-average at first. He's 29 and looks to be able to provide 25-30 homers a year for the next four or five seasons for the Nationals. He could play in left field just as easily as at first.

Chris Marrero

And now Marrero's glove is as major-league ready as his bat. No, he'll never be a star, but he could become a quality complementary piece that all champion caliber teams need to be successful.

Tyler Moore could be the best pure power hitter among the group. Over the past two years, he's averaged a home run every 17 at-bats. Over a 550 at-bat season, that works out to 33 home runs (Marrero has averaged a homer every 26 at-bats, or about 21 homers over a full major league season).

I think the wild card in all of this is Bryce Harper. If all goes as planned, Harper will make it to the major leagues sometime next year, probably near the half-way point of the season. But when he gets here, where will he play? I don't think he's ready to be an everyday center-fielder, which means he will probably take over in left (I doubt a 19-year-old is going to supplant Jayson Werth in right).

So here's how the dominoes will fall:

Morse will remain at first for the rest of this season. Laynce Nix will be the team's left-fielder against righties and is on pace to hit .296-22-64 this year. This off season, the Nationals trade for a real center fielder who can succeed at the top of the order, perhaps using Nix as part of the package.

Adam La Roche returns in 2012 and becomes the team's first baseman with Morse returning to left. When Harper finally makes it to Washington, the contending teams will begin looking to add veteran players for their pennant chases, players like Adam La Roche.

Tyler Moore With Mississippi State

The Nationals trade La Roche, move Morse back to first, and Harper takes over in left. Werth remains in right and center is covered by the player they traded for, the guy that probably cost them a pitching prospect or a back-end-of-the-rotation major leaguer (or both), either Moore or Marrero and one more player, maybe Roger Bernadina or Nix.

With Stephen Strasburg back in the rotation and Bryce Harper in the outfield, the difference between just "another" season in 2012 and a special one could be that guy who ends up leading off and playing center.

Hopefully, they find the right guy.