With New CBA In Place, Nationals May Kick-Start Last Phase Of "The Plan"

Jim Bowden At His First Press Conference In D.C.

"The Plan" is not something we've heard much about recently.

It wasn't too long ago that the Washington Nationals divested itself of any meaningful talent, trading the few quality players they had away for prospects while hoarding their draft picks in the yearly amateur draft.

In some point in the future, we were assured, the team's young talent would rise like cream to the top, filling all of the gaping holes on the major league roster.

And it seemed to work.

Last season, five of the team's eight starting position players were either cultivated through the team's minor league system or received as minor league prospects through trades. The same goes for three of their starting pitchers and their top two relievers.

In another two or three years, another crop of young pitchers will be ready to make the jump to the major leagues, giving the team one of the most formidable young rotations in the game.

Oh, and that kid, you know, the one who is supposed to be maybe the best hitting prospect since Ken Griffey Jr, he'll certainly be in the starting lineup by 2012.

I think his name is Bryce Harper.

Ken Griffey Jr.

But the way baseball operates has undergone a major change in the last few weeks, enough so that the Nationals might not want to wait for the next wave of rookies to mature.

With the handshake that accompanied the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, new rules have been placed in effect that may force the Nationals to look for those final pieces for a pennant run earlier than expected.

First, the addition of a second wild card entrant--possibly next year but no later than 2013--makes it much easier for a good-but-not-great team to get into the playoffs. As Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post pointed out in yesterday's column, all but one 90-win team over the past 15 years would have gotten into the playoffs under the new system.

Secondly, the cost for signing premium free agents has been reduced. Though the formula has become more complicated--no more "Type A" and "Type B" free agents, a team can still lose its top draft pick if the player was offered arbitration, but the guaranteed salary they would be forced to pay is so high that its likely that fewer players will be offered arbitration. My guess is this will allow the Nationals to be more aggressive with their free agent offers this winter.

And lastly, Washington will never again be able to do what they did last summer. The Nationals were able to draft four players with first round talent and then went way over-slot to sign them. New rules will make this a near impossibility in the future.

The Nationals, then, have three good reasons to make a splash this off season. Baseball Karma has given them a golden opportunity, if, that is, they can get to 90 wins. That means they will have to find a way to win 10 more games than last season.

How do they do it?

Having Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 1.50) back  will certainly help. He'll be worth at least a couple of more wins in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Jordan Zimmermann (8-11, 3.18) will be available for the entire year and should give the Nationals another win. And Chien-Ming Wang (4-3, 4.04), who pitched in the majors for the first time in almost three seasons, will be far better as the team's number-five starter than was Tom Gorzelanny last year. Count on an extra win from him.

That's four wins down and six to go.

First baseman Adam LaRoche has a career 162-game average of .267-26-92 to go along with his stellar defense. Last year, arm and shoulder problems limited him to .172-3-15 in just 43 games. He is working out now in Phoenix is should be 100% ready by the beginning of spring training. A healthy LaRoche has to be good for another two wins.

All Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is also coming off an injury-plagued season.  The 26-year-old played in just 101 games and his power was sapped due to an abdominal injury. A healthy Zimmerman will add another win, easily.

That gets the Nationals up to 87 wins, give or take.

The team can likely find two or more wins if they are able to sign or trade for a quality, veteran pitcher, someone along the lines of Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson (as free agents) and Wandy Rodriguez or Gio Gonzalez as potential trade targets.

That puts the team at roughly 89-73.

If the Nationals stay with an in-house solution in center, someone like Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina, they are not going to find the extra win or two among that group.

But you would think that the maturation of the team's younger players should be worth a couple of wins. Take a look at what those players did in 2011 and what they should be able to do this year:

Wilson Ramos: (2011) .267-16-52      (2012) .265-20-65
Danny Espinosa: (2011) .236-21-66     (2012) .260-25-75
Ian Desmond: (2011) .253-8-49          (2012) .270-10-50

If all goes well, if there are no heartbreaking injuries to deal with, or Werth-like slumps to live through or jaw-dropping regression by the kids to watch in stunned silence, the Nationals should finish the year with 85-90 wins in 2012, perhaps 92-93 if they find both that veteran pitcher and quality center fielder they are after.

Based on history, 89 wins could get them in the playoffs if the second wild card spot is available in 2012, and 90 wins will.

Can they make it? Here's hoping.

OSWALT OR BUEHRLE OR WILSON, OH MY!

With baseball’s annual Winter Meeting now three weeks away, Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo continues to focus on adding an experienced center fielder and a veteran starting pitcher.

Roy Oswalt -- The Best Fit In Washington?

My guess is that if Rizzo is going to make a splash at the meetings, it’s going to be with a pitcher. If they have to, the Nationals can probably get by with a holdover from last season (Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina) or a platoon of veterans capable of giving the team some steady-if-unspectacular offense while providing steady defense.

But adding another veteran starter is imperative if the team is going to make a true pennant run. Sure, Brad Peacock or Ross Detwiler or Tommy Milone might come out of nowhere and give the team 12-14 wins, but they probably won’t.

One more quality starter to go along with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang could actually make the Nationals—gulp, dare I say it?—an early favorite in the hunt for one of now two Wild Card berths.

There are several pitchers that meet Rizzo’s requirements, namely a veteran, “innings eater” type who doesn’t have a history of injury problems.

Right now, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and C.J. Wilson are the most coveted of the available free agents.

Who should be the Nationals’ top choice among the three? Let’s take a look at their comparative statistics:

Roy Oswalt (Age: 33)

Career Average: 16-10, 3.29, 8.7/2.1/7.9

2011: 9-10, 3.69, 9.9/2.1/6.0

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets:  Has pinpoint control and an ability to throw plenty of first-pitch strikes. He's also an innings-eater with a winning attitude and leadership qualities.

Flaws:  His diminutive stature has started to take its toll, as he's not as dominant as he used to be. Also gives up a few too many hits.

Mark Buehrle Seems GM Mike Rizzo's Favorite

Mark Buehrle (Age: 32)

Career Average: 15-11, 3.83, 9.5/2.0/5.1

2011: 13-9, 3.59, 9.7/2.0/4.8

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets:  One of the game's great work horses, he doesn't fatigue much late in the game. Logs a lot of innings, pitches to contact and can lead a staff. Is successful throwing an array of off-speed pitches.

Flaws:  When he loses focus, he gets knocked around for big innings. That's due to less-than-stellar velocity and average stuff. At times, he can take a while to regain his focus when on the mound.

C.J. Wilson Has Just 2 Years of Starting Experience

C.J. Wilson (Age: 30)

Career Average (as starter): 16-8, 3.14, 7.4/3.5/7.9

2011: 16-7, 2.94, 7.9/3.8/8.1

TSN Scouting Report:

Assets: Pitches aggressively with a low-90s fastball that has great movement. Also boasts a good curve and solid change-up. Constantly challenges hitters. Is capable of dominating left-handed batters. Can close, set up or start.

Flaws: Right-handed hitters have a little more success than lefty bats, so greater refinement in his pitches could help. Must improve his durability and stamina to thrive in the starting rotation.

There is no question that all three pitchers have the potential to help the Nationals become contenders, but that doesn’t mean they all bring the same abilities.

Of the three, Wilson will likely cost the most and require the longest contract. Reports from multiple sources indicate that he has set his sights on a six-year, $120 million deal. And while there is no way he’s going to get that much, he’s going to come close as the top free-agent pitcher of the litter.

I think a more likely scenario is $80 million over five years with an easy-to-reach sixth year option.

That is way too much money for any free agent pitcher not named Sabathia, but it is especially too much considering that Wilson has only been a starter for two years and has only 73 starts under his belt.

I mean, who’s to say that he won’t revert back to his days before becoming a starter when he averaged 4.1 walks per nine-innings and had a bloated 4.30 ERA?

With the kind of money Wilson is going to get, the Nationals can buy a quality starter and a decent center fielder.

Signing Wilson makes no sense, not from a talent perspective and not from a financial perspective. Let the Yankees overpay for him.

And though Mark Buehrle has been a model of consistency for the Chicago White Sox, his stats don’t suggest that he is anything more than a good, consistent pitcher.

Mark Buehrle Seems Too Much Like This Guy

 And those stats look close enough to current Nationals’ lefty John Lannan that I’m not sure it makes sense to give the 32-year-old what he’s asking for, and no, I’m not suggesting John Lannan is the same pitcher as Mark Buehrle.

But take a look at their career averages based on a 162-game season:

Mark Buehrle:

15-11, 3.83 ERA, 223 Innings Pitched, 9.5 hits per 9 innings / 2.0 walks per 9 innings /5.1 strikeouts per 9 innings.

John Lannan:

10-14, 4.00, 200 Innings Pitched, 9.4 hits per 9 innings / 3.4 walks per 9 innings / 4.7 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Their lines just aren’t as different as you would expect. Lannan’s ERA is a bit higher, and he gives up one more walk per game, but his hits allowed and strikeouts allowed are about the same.

But look at this: In 33 starts, Lannan gave up 90 runs. Buehrle allowed 93 runs in one less start. That’s as close to identical two pitchers can be without being exactly identical.

And Lannan averaged 5.6 innings per start while Buehrle went 6.5 innings per start.

Man, that’s just too similar.

I doubt that John Lannan is going to be as successful as Buehrle over his career—in fact, I think we can count on that—but that doesn’t mean they aren’t similar pitchers. True, Buehrle has averaged 15 wins per major league season and Lannan only 10, but Lannan has spent his career on a truly terrible team.

Over Buehrle’s career, the White Sox have averaged 87 wins per season, and in the three seasons where they finished below .500, Buehrle had three of his worst seasons, winning 10 games in 2007 and 13 in both 2009 and 2011.

Lannan’s Nationals, on the other hand, have averaged just 66 wins during his time in Washington, 21 games fewer than the White Sox. Had he played with the White Sox during that same period, he would have likely averaged 12-13 wins per season.

So really, Mark Buehrle is a 2-3 win improvement over John Lannan, and that just doesn’t warrant the millions it will cost the team to get him.

In the end, I think that the least attractive of the three free agents could be the best fit in Washington.

Of the three, Roy Oswalt will require the least amount of guaranteed money and the fewest number of guaranteed contract years, due in part to injuries that have slowed him over the last couple of seasons.

From 2001 through 2010, Oswalt averaged 30 starts per season, going 15-8 with a fine 3.18 ERA. But he was limited to just 23 starts in 2011 and injuries robbed him of some of his efficiency. He went 9-10, 3.69 last season, giving up two more hits per nine-innings and striking out two less batters per nine.

Zimmermann & The Other Kids Could Use A Teacher

But Oswalt would bring far more to the Nationals than wins. He is a leader in the clubhouse, just the kind of guy that Mike Rizzo likes. The top three Washington starters—Strasburg, Zimmermann and Lannan—are all 26 or younger and fourth starter Chien-Ming Wang, while 31, has just 115 career starts, a relatively small number for his age. John Lannan, four years younger, has 13 more starts than Wang.

Oswalt could bring a winner’s mentality to the starting rotation. He could be a teacher, a leader and darn fine starter. Because of his age, it is likely that Washington would not want to / have to commit to a long-term deal, making that rotational slot available to one the team’s young pitchers in a relatively short period of time.

To be able to contend, the Washington Nationals need a “rock” in the rotation to give the kids time to turn winning ability into games won. Once that happens—say in a couple of years—the team could then afford to bring in one of the bevy of young arms they have stockpiled and still contend.

The Nationals contention window will open with the beginning of spring training and looks like it could be a five-year window. For now, the team will need an influx of outside veteran talent to win before ultimately letting the maturing youngsters lead them through those outlying years.

No question, though: it’s going to be a fun ride over the next few years. And goodness knows, after the last seven seasons, we’ve earned it.

Bryce Harper IS The Outfielder That GM Mike Rizzo Is Looking For

Over the next six weeks, Washington Nationals team General Manager Mike Rizzo will burn up the phone lines at Nationals Park as he searches for the one or two remaining pieces that will transform the once moribund franchise into—this seems almost sacrilege to say—a true pennant contender.

Roy Oswalt Tops Mike Rizzo's List For FA Pitchers

As his team rocketed through September and finished the season on a 15-5 tear, Rizzo told reporters that his team was one starting pitcher and a center fielder away from joining the elite of the National League East.

Many free agent pitchers have been mentioned as possibilities for the Nationals rotation, including Mark Buerle (13-9, 3.59), Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69) and C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94).

 And though the Nationals have three stalwart prospects to fill that last spot in the rotation, Tommy Milone (1-0, 3.81), Brad Peacock (2-0, 0.75) and Ross Detwiler (4-5, 3.00) have yet to pitch a meaningful September game in their young careers.

Though their potential is undeniable, their lack of experience could be deadly to a potential pennant chase. The Nationals need a veteran quality starter to help calm the inevitable summer storms.

But the need for a center fielder is another matter entirely.

Heading into spring training, Michael Morse is a lock in left. After filling in at first when Adam LaRoche was lost for the year in mid May, the 29-year-old returns to his natural position after blossoming at the plate. Morse was perhaps the surprise of the National League last year, hitting .303-31-95 in his first season as a full-time player.

Jayson Werth is penciled in as the team’s right fielder. Werth’s first year in Washington was perhaps the team’s worst individual effort since Cristian Guzman back in 2005. In 150 games, the 32-year-old hit just .232-20-58.

But there is little doubt that Werth’s horrid season is likely not to be repeated in 2012. In his last three seasons with the Phillies, Werth averaged .279-29-84 with a solid .376 on-base percentage.

Chalk up last year to a combination of “just one of those years” and trying too hard to justify his $126 million contract.

That said, playing in that Philadelphia bandbox certainly puffed up his home run stats. From 2008 through 2010, Werth hit 50 homers at home and just 37 on the road.

The combination of a rebound year in 2012 along with the more spacious home ballpark should mean that Werth will give the Nationals a good-but-not-great season, something along the lines of .270-20-75.

That leaves the hole in center and a myriad of players to fill it. Grady Sizemore, who was non-tendered by the Indians following three injury-plagued seasons, seems the most logical choice of the group, though how much interest the team has for him at this point isn’t known.

Sizemore May Resign With Indians

Sizemore, a former member of the organization, averaged just .234-9-36 over the last three after hitting .279-28-81 from 2006-2008. Sizemore is seeking a one-year contract to prove his health as well as his worth.

And after his one year in center, he would move on to greener pastures, giving up his spot to that remarkable phenom currently percolating in the minors, Bryce Harper.

But as badly as the team wants to bring along the 19-year-old along slowly and cautiously, he seems to be proving at every stop along the way that he’s ready to face major league pitching right now.

Harper, the top overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft in 2010, graduated from high school two years early and played in an advanced junior college league that used wood bats.

Hitting against 19-year-old pitchers in what should have been his junior year of high school, Harper was unstoppable, batting .442-29-89 in just 215 at-bats. That works out to 72 homers and 222 RBI over a 162-game season. Wow.

Harper’s first taste of professional baseball came in the Nationals’ Florida Instructional League following the 2010 season. He Batted .319 with a .407 on-base percentage and led his team in hits, home runs and runs batted in.

Though he originally was not ticketed to play in the highly touted Arizona Fall League that fall, Harper’s outstanding effort earned a spot on his team’s taxi squad, which limited his play to a couple of starts a week.

That said, the second-youngest player ever to participate in the AFL batted .343 with a .629 slugging percent in limited play.

Harper earned some significant playing time during the 2011 spring training, playing in 13 early games and he responded by hitting .389 with a .450 on-base percentage and a 1.006 OPS.

Like at virtually every other stop he’d made as a professional, Harper started slowly in the Low-A South Atlantic League as a member of the Hagerstown Suns this spring. But like virtually every stop he’s made, Harper then got hot and for six weeks, he was the hottest hitter in the league, perhaps in all of baseball. And then, like at virtually every stop he’s made, he plateaued and continued to be a very good player for the remainder of the season.

Bryce Harper

After 72 games, Harper had batted .318/.423/.554 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI and was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg. It was there that his cycle of slow starts and hot streaks ended. Oh, the slow start happened, but just as he began to heat up, injury ended his season.

In 129 at-bats, Harper hit .256/.329/.395 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI for the Senators.

There was some concern that the semi-struggle at Harrisburg was more the product of his being pushed too far too quickly within the Nationals’ system, but those fears were allayed over the past month in the hot desert sun in Arizona.

Playing against the top prospects across major league baseball, Harper batted .333/.400/.634 with six home runs and 26 RBI. Adjusted to a full major league season, those numbers would be .333-36-156 with 24 stolen bases.

And, oh yeah, he started slowly, then destroyed opposition pitching for three weeks, then plateaued and played solid baseball through the season’s end.

Now, I agree that it is difficult look at all of those teams and accompanying stats and be able to tell just how well he did. So let’s add up every swing, punch-out and home run he’s produced from that first day of spring training through the final out of the just completed Arizona Fall League season.

It pretty much adds up to a full major league season and gives a fairly good indication of the type of player Bryce Harper is:

Slash Line: .307/.398/.535

At-Bats: 498

Runs: 83

Hits: 153

Doubles: 32

Triples: 4

Home Runs: 23

Runs Batted In: 84

Stolen Bases: 31/38 (81.5%)

Walks: 73

Strikeouts: 111

That’s outstanding on a number of levels.

In the Low-A South Atlantic League, Harper was 18 playing against pitchers four years older than him. In the Double-A Eastern League, the median age is 25; some of those guys were in their eighth professional season while Harper should have been a senior in high school.

If he was able to put up all-star numbers when he was in essence the little brother trying to hit against all the neighborhood big brothers, how might he fare against players of his own age and experience level?

I don’t think we’ll ever know the answer to that because it’s not going to happen, because when the Nationals break camp and go north next spring, Bryce Harper needs to go with them.

It is a near certainty that whoever the Nationals are going to sign to play center, he will be gone by the end of the year, opening the door for Harper to begin playing every day in 2013.

But he’s ready now, and so that stop-gap center fielder just isn’t necessary.

The most important part of a young player’s game is the ability to adjust, and Harper’s continuous cycle of slow starts followed by blazing hot streaks is just that, Harper getting overmatched and then adjusting to how he’s being pitched.

There is no reason to believe that won’t happen at the major league level too. I have little doubt that Harper’s first couple of months would be beset by strikeouts and prolonged slumps. But in time, he would make the necessary adjustments and provide enough offense for the Nationals to make a real run at the post season.

 

Some worry that a bad start might harm Harper’s confidence in himself. But one thing that Harper doesn’t lack is confidence. And bad starts don’t end a player’s season before it starts. After 30 games last year, Michael Morse was hitting just .211/.253/.268 with a home run and just nine RBI, and his season ended quite nicely.

Jayson Werth’s first 30 games were almost as bad, and though he didn’t totally climb out of the hole he had dug for himself, he came close.

So there is no reason to believe that Harper couldn’t do the same, especially when he has a nice track record of doing just that.

And history suggests that Harper can make the jump to the majors this year.

Back in 1989, there was a 19-year-old phenom who many compare today to Bryce Harper. His name was Ken Griffey Jr. In his first few weeks as a major leaguer, he struggled mightily, hitting just .189/.246/.340 through early May.

But he made adjustments, learned from his mistakes, and by the end of the year hit .264-16-61 and finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting.

I suspect that Harper’s first-year stats would closely mirror those of Griffey, giving the team’s outfield more than enough offensive production to make a real run at the post season.

An outfield of Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper could produce 70 home runs and 250 RBI in 2012. That compares favorably to the New York Yankees outfield trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher who combined to hit 71 home runs and drive in 240 RBI last year.

Starting Bryce Harper on Opening Day, does, however, have its drawbacks. His arbitration and free agency clocks would begin sooner, costing the team certainly more money and possibly the loss of Harper to free agency at an earlier date.

But in the here and now, none of that really matters. The Washington Nationals are finally in a position to win next year, thanks to equal parts of better players, the softening of the competition, and the possibility of a second wildcard spot in the playoffs.

In baseball, windows of opportunity open and close all too quickly and every chance to win needs to be grasped. For the Nationals, Grady Sizemore or Coco Crisp wouldn’t provide any better chance to win next year than Bryce Harper.

That being the case, it makes more sense to start Harper in right, move Werth to center, and leave Morse in left. Sure, there is a chance that Harper’s first year in the majors may be a bit substandard, but there is enough talent on the roster to make up for any short-term difficulties he may face.

And there is no question that Bryce Harper circa 2013 would be a far better player having a year of major league experience under his belt rather than another season in the minors.

While the Nationals can contend next year, 2013 will likely be the Nationals’ “big” year. The imperfections in the games of Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos and Ian Desmond will likely be gone with another year of experience. So it’s better to make