Friday, July 30, 2010

JOHN LANNAN TO TAKE STEVEN STRASBURG'S NEXT START

The Washington Nationals had many options from which to plug the hole in the starting rotation caused by Stephen Strasburg's (hopefully) quick trip to the disabled list.

They chose to go with an old friend, though, former Opening Day starter John Lannan.

Lannan, who was never able to find his way in 2010, was demoted to Double-A Harrisburg after going 2-5, 5.76 in 14 starts.

But he didn't fair much better in his time with the Senators, going 1-4, 4.20 against some of the best prospects in major league baseball.

But it's not like Lannan, 25, has something to prove.

He was one of only seven National League starters to log 30 starts and have an ERA under 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009.

Of all major league starters with at least 70 career starts, he is tied with Josh Beckett for the highest percentage of career quality starts at 60% (a quality start is pitching at least six innings while allowing three runs or less).

In his fourth major league season, Lannan is a veteran and capable of quickly finding the problem that is haunting him this season and fixing it.

He just has to do it.

For the Nationals to take the next step towards respectability, John Lannan has to return to form. When the season started several months back, Lannan was the best pitcher the Nationals had on the major league roster.

But Today, Stephen Strasburg, Ross Detwiler and Scott Olsen will be ahead of him in the rotation. And when Jason Marquis returns--and possibly Chien-Ming Wang--Lannan will find himself as the number-five starter in the rotation.

That assumes that Livan Hernandez is traded in the next few days.

While most of Lannan's problem is mechanical, he seems lost on the mound and unsure of his stuff. What he needs is one or two starts with the Nationals that go smoothly.

Once that happens, Lannan will hopefully again become Washington's "Mr. Dependable."

Thursday, July 29, 2010

WILSON RAMOS BRINGS NEW HOPE TO NATIONALS' FUTURE

Wilson Ramos
The Washington Nationals made a substantive trade Thursday and it had nothing at all to do with Adam Dunn.

Go figure.

The Nationals traded All-Star closer Matt Capps to the Minnesota Twins for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Nationals just got a whole lot better.

Capps, who saved his 25th game on Thursday, has a record of 3-3 with a fine ERA of just 2.80. The 26-year-old has already saved 92 major league games.

But as good as Capps is, he was expendable because bad teams don’t need All-Star closers and his heir apparent, former first-round pick Drew Storen, is pitching even better. Storen is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA, allowing just 7.3 hits per nine-innings while striking out eight.

The Nationals also have several quality relievers currently in the minors to replace him, so the loss of Capps will make minimal difference—if any—for the rest of the season.

And in return they didn’t receive a run-of-the-mill prospect who is usually traded for a rental player.

Wilson Ramos, 22, signed in 2004 with the Twins as an amateur free agent. In five minor league seasons, Ramos has batted .284/.331/.427 with 36 home runs and 211 RBI (which averages out to about 16 homers and 75 RBI over a full minor league season).

Ramos was recalled from Triple-A Rochester earlier this season when Twins catcher Joe Mauer was injured. He batted a solid .296/321/.407 in 27 at-bats. In his first game, he went 4-5, the first Twin to garner four hits in his first game since Kirby Puckett in 1984 and is the only catcher in the modern era to do it.

He returned to the minors when Mauer rejoined the team.

He is a solid defensive catcher, throwing out 43% of would-be base stealers over his minor league career and has a .987 fielding percent over that span.

He has a perfect catcher's build. He hits for a good average and has real home run power. His walk-to-strikeout rate isn’t wonderful, but he is just 22.

Ramos was added to the Twins 40-man roster in 2008 and Aaron Gleeman lists him as the Twins third best prospect. Baseball America has him at number four.

Says baseball insider Keith Law," Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find."

Ramos is considered one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball and the only reason he wasn’t the Twins' Opening Day catcher was due to some guy named Joe Mauer.

He's so good that he was one of two players offered to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee earlier this month.

If Jesus Flores returns, the Nationals will have two good hitting catchers who are both solid defensively. If he doesn’t return, Ramos should become the Nationals starting catcher for years to come.
The Nationals also received minor league pitcher Joe Testa, who in three seasons as a reliever, has gone 10-7, 3.33.

This trade is indicative of a couple of things. First, General Manager Mike Rizzo demands a lot from a potential trade partner but holds firm and gets what he wants.

Secondly, if he can get this kind of return for Capps, imagine what an Adam Dunn trade will bring the Nationals.



I think a Dunn deal is now a matter of when, not if.

Lastly, catcher Derek Norris, one of the Nationals' top prospects, is now expendable and might be packaged in a deal that would bring the Diamondbacks' Edwin Jackson to Washington.

Wow.

The Washington Nationals just got a whole lot better. Thanks, Mike.


Wednesday, July 28, 2010

PUTTING POTENTIAL ADAM DUNN TRADE IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Catfish Hunter in 1968, Yankee Stadium
ESPN baseball analyst Jayson Stark reported on Wednesday that it is now very likely that the Nationals—who seem unable to come to terms with first baseman Adam Dunn—will now trade him by the July 31st trading deadline.


The possibility of losing their offensive linchpin worries Nationals’ fans and fuels the concern that their team is joining the Pirates and Royals in the never-ending cycle of trading established players for prospects.

The Nationals currently have three options regarding the future of Adam Dunn. They can keep him and sign him to the contract he wants, $60 million over four years. They can trade him now and receive prospects or they can let him leave at the end of the season and receive two compensation picks, a mid-round pick and a supplementary pick following the first round.

Most agree that a four-year contract is too long for the 30-year-old slugger. If he sticks to his demands, the team won’t resign him. And while supplemental picks can bring future stars, the Nationals are not in a position to wait another five or six years for Dunn’s replacements to make an impact at the major league level.

So Jayson Stark is right; it’s highly likely that Dunn’s tenure with Washington is almost at an end.

I know it is difficult to lose a star for prospects that may—or may not—make a difference with the big club. But sometimes, not making a move is the worst possible choice.

The biggest problem is that fans don’t want to break up the heart of the Nationals’ order, one of the best in baseball. Ryan Zimmerman, Dunn and Josh Willingham make up one of the strongest three-four-five trios in all of baseball.

The three players are on track to hit .282-89-283 this year and are the heart of the team. The other five starters are no more than supporting players at best. To lose one, it is feared, would further damage a bad team.

And who knows what the team might get in return, right?

Nationals’ fans born after before 1960 remember the team’s predecessor, the Washington Senators. No team had lost more games in the Sixties and 1969 seemed no different. However, new manager Ted Williams brought some magic to Washington and the team won 86 games, the only time the expansion Senators finished above .500.

They succeeded that year—just like the Nationals—on the strength of their three-four-five hitters. Mike Epstein, Ken McMullen and Frank Howard. Those three combined to hit .282-97-283 in 1969, virtually identical to this season’s big-three (.282-89-283).

And just like this season’s Nationals, the other five starters were average to slightly above-average players.

Following the 1969 season, team owner Bob Short turned down manager Williams’ plea to trade two of the three stars for prospects. It would hurt the team the following year, Williams said, but could make the team contenders as early as 1972.

Short said no. He was unwilling to move his best players.

But what if he had made those trades in the winter of 1969? What if Short had taken a chance and built the Senators then as the Nationals are trying to do now?

In his book, Ted Williams and the 1969 Season, Ted Leavengood listed several trades that were not just rumored but were concrete offers by other teams for several Senators’ players, all turned down by Short.

Mike Epstein was one of the hottest commodities at the 1969 Winter Meetings, and both the Yankees and the Oakland Athletics tried to pry him away from Washington.

The Yankees, seeing the public relations value of having a Jewish slugger on their team—Epstein’s nickname was “SuperJew”—offered lefty Fritz Peterson for the Senators’ slugger. Peterson, just 26, had won 12 games in 1968 and 17 in ’69 with an ERA of just above 3.00.

Bob Short said no.

Peterson finished his career with 133 wins, including 20 in 1970, with a 3.40 ERA.

Athletics’ owner Charley Finley next came calling, offering 23-year-old Catfish Hunter for Epstein, who had already won 55 major league games.

Again, Bob Short said no.

Hunter is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher who won 224 games in his career—including 20 five times—with a 3.26 ERA. He was an eight-time all-star and an ERA champion. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the American League.

The Senators had a young slugger in 1969 by the name of Brant Alyea, who hit 10 home runs in part-time duty by the All-Star break. Though he would hit only one more that year, Calvin Griffith, owner of the Minnesota Twins, was enamored with his good looks and powerful stroke.

He had offered Short third baseman Craig Nettles, who had shown some promise in parts of three major league seasons. Though major league scouts roundly believed that Nettles would one day become an all-star, and though those same scouts saw major flaws in Alyea’s looping swing (think Austin Kearns here), Short said no.

Nettles, in his first full season as a major leaguer, hit 26 homers in 1970 and played defense equal to that of the Orioles’ Brooks Robinson.

In a 22-year career, Nettles hit almost 400 homers, drove in more than 1,300 runs, was a six-time all-star, won multiple Gold Gloves and led the American League in home runs in 1976.

The New York Mets, fresh off their miracle 1969 World Championship season, recognized that they had a problem at third base and saw the Senators' McMullen as their answer.

The Mets offered a variety of packages for McMullen before settling on a two-for-one trade offer that would have brought to Washington relief pitcher Tug McGraw and starter Nolan Ryan.

Bob Short said no.

McGraw—father of Country singer Tim McGraw—had a great year in 1969, going 9-3, 2.24 with 12 saves. Over his career, McGraw won 96 games, saved another 180, had a very solid 3.14 ERA, and was a two-time all-star. He won two World Series, one with the Mets and the other with the Phillies in 1980.

And McGraw was the worst of the two players being dangled by the Mets.

Nolan Ryan won 324 games in an astonishing 27-year career. He was an eight-time all-star, is the all-time leader in strikeouts and is second in career starts.

Oh yes, he’s also thrown seven no-hitters.

In the end, Epstein, McMullen and Alyea were all out of baseball by the mid 1970’s and the Senators ended up moving to Texas following the 1971 season.

But with Catfish Hunter and Nolan Ryan headlining the rotation, and with Tug McGraw in the bullpen, and Graig Nettles at third, the Senators would have begun the process of becoming a contender.

Just like the Senators in 1969, the 2010 Nationals won’t become contenders with nothing more than a strong middle of the lineup. The rest of the team has to get better, and getting two or three prospects that would make an immediate impact makes just too much sense.

And the $15 million that would have gone to Dunn could now go to one or two free agents who, along with the prospects, could turn the Nationals into contenders rather quickly.

I love Adam Dunn. I would greatly miss him. But in the long run, the Nationals needs are just too great for the team to hitch their star to just one, very big, very strong player.

The prospects that the Chicago White Sox are offering, Dan Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks, may not turn out to be the next Graig Nettles, Nolan Ryan and Catfish Hunter.

But they could. And if they did, the Nationals could become a true contender as early as next season.

Monday, July 26, 2010

RUMORS OF AN DUNN FOR JACKSON TRADE ABOUND: DOES IT HELP THE NATIONALS?

As the trade deadline approaches, it is becoming apparent that Adam Dunn has a better chance to be traded by July 31st then to remain a long-term part of the franchise.

Edwin Jackson Earlier This Season
Rumors abound that he is perturbed at the Nationals’ perceived lack of urgency in getting a contract extension completed and during the second inning of Saturday’s game with the Milwaukee Brewers went upstairs and had an on-air visit with Brewers’ radio man Bob Uecker.

Nationals’ manager Jim Riggleman told reporters that he didn’t want to hear about it and Dunn said on Monday that “I could care less if I get in trouble for going up and seeing my guy after he had heart surgery. I’ll pay my fine.”


It doesn’t sound like things are too copacetic between the team and the first baseman, at least for the moment.

Okay, so the chances of Dunn resigning with the Nationals seem unlikely, leaving the team with two options. They can either trade him between now and Saturday or allow him to leave this winter as a free agent and get two additional draft pick in next summer’s amateur draft.

But really, the Nationals can’t afford to let their highest profile hitter walk away and get back a couple of players who may—or may not—turn into major league players in, oh, I don’t know, four or five years.

No, they need player(s) who can make an immediate contribution.

But is Edwin Jackson that player?

General Manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear for some time that he is a fan of the 27-year-old Jackson, and rumors have swirled on Monday that a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Nationals could bring Jackson to Washington in exchange for Dunn.

It is difficult to determine what a premier slugger is worth in exchange for two months of playing time. The Rangers gave up four minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee for two months, so you would think that Dunn would have similar value.

But teams are unwilling these days to trade away their best prospects for a rental hitter. If the rumors are to be believed, Dunn’s value is a couple of good—but not great—minor leaguers.

So is a Dunn for Jackson swap a good deal for the Nationals?

Jackson was a sixth-round pick of the Dodgers in 2001 and since 2006 has spent time with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Detroit and the Diamondbacks.

His first season as a full-time starter—with Tampa in 2007—was a disaster as Jackson went 5-15, 5.76. He blossomed the next season though, going 14-11, 4.42. He was at his best in 2009 with the Tigers, garnering a record of 13-9, 3.62.

His numbers with Arizona this season haven’t been as good (6-9, 5.01) but his internal numbers match his career marks (9.3/4.0/7.0) so his difficult year may be the product of playing with a bad team, or a run of bad luck, or both.

Jackson has a 95 mph fastball along with a good slider and change. His fastball, though, doesn’t have particularly good movement at times, leading to a higher-than-normal ERA for a pitcher of his caliber. He also walks too many batters.

But he’s just 27 and would be an excellent addition to the Nationals’ growing-by-the-day pitching staff.

Come 2011, the Nationals’ rotation could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson, Cuban defector Yuneski Maya and Jason Marquis, with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Ross Detwiler all fighting to gain a rotation spot as well.

Pretty good, I’d say.

Reports this afternoon suggest that a possible trade for Edwin Jackson would send prospects, and not Adam Dunn, to Arizona.

We’ll know in a few days, but regardless, starting pitching won’t be one of the Nationals’ problems next season.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

NATIONALS MUST MOVE THEIR POOR DEFENDERS THIS WEEK AS TRADE DEADLINE LOOMS

Rickie Weeks launched his 20th home run of the season on Sunday and sent Ross Detwiler to the showers.

Detwiler, in his first start since returning to the major leagues after undergoing hip surgery this spring, pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out four. He allowed five runs.

All unearned.

A Willie Harris first inning miscue and a fourth inning bad throw by Ian Desmond opened the floodgates for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Good baseball teams win with great pitching and stout defense. The Washington Nationals are just a couple of weeks away from transforming their place-holder starting rotation into a quality group that could include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Olsen, Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Livan Herandez and--sometime in September--Cuban defector Yuneski Maya.

And though the bullpen has been a little shaky in recent days, is still solid with Sean Burnett, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps.

And though the offense hasn't performed as expected, it is a capable group and certainly good enough to win on most days.

Good enough, that is, if the team could play anything resembling major league defense.

But after allowing the Florida Marlins to tie them for the most errors in the National League this season, the Nationals took the field on Sunday and quickly regained the title with two more errors.

It has become clear that by next season the pitching staff will be able to lead a contending team if they had a solid defensive team behind them. But the Nationals just don't have those type of players. With the possible exception of shortstop Ian Desmond, none of the team's defensive liabilities are going to get better with practice.

They are what they are.

So it's time that the Nationals commit to playing quality defenders.

That means that Adam Dunn has to go. That means that Cristian Guzman needs a new home. Josh Willingham, though he's playing better in the field, is still not a great defender. And though Nyjer Morgan has the speed to make up for many of his mistakes, he just doesn't have the baseball instincts necessary to be an everyday center fielder.

Were Mike Rizzo to use these remaining days before the July 31st trading deadling to trade Dunn, Guzman, Willingham, Morgan as well as closer Matt Capps and starter Livan Hernandez, they could receive a half-dozen or more position players that are ready--or near ready--to shore up the defense.

The Nationals could field a starting eight that might look something like this:

1B-Mike Morse
2B-Adam Kennedy
SS-Alberto Gonzalez
3B-Ryan Zimmerman
LF-Willie Harris
CF-Roger Bernadina
RF-Justin Maxwell
C-Pudge Rodriguez & Wil Nieves

Though Maxwell hasn't hit well at the major league level this season, he has in the past and is an excellent fielder. And the time has come for the Ian Desmond experiment to end, at least at the major league level. If he is going to make 35 errors a season, let him do it in the minors.

Two or three of those prospects received in possible trades this week would be ready to take over next season. Also, there are several free agents who will be available this winter who could help fill out the 2011 roster.

I'm tired of watching this team stumble and bumble in the field. I'd much rather watch them lose 2-1 than 5-4. The Nationals' pitching is ready to contend. But unless their defense is as good as their pitching, it will be just another long year in Washington next season.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

DETWILER READY

Ross Detwiler took the mound on Wednesday afternoon and pitched seven shutout innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out seven.

In eight rehab starts since undergoing surgery this spring, Detwiler has crafted a 2-2 record with a sterling 2.27 ERA. He struck out 31 batters in 32 innings while walking just seven.

Detwiler, who had a 1.90 ERA in six September starts last season, seems ready to take his place in the Nationals rotation within the next week or two.

It won't be too long before Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Detwiler hold down the top of the Nationals' rotation, all home-grown and all very, very good.

NATIONALS SIGN FIRST HIGH PROFILE INTERNATIONAL PLAYER

Two weeks ago, it seemed imperative that the Washington Nationals resign Adam Dunn and make him a long-term part of the team's future.

No more.

The continues to prove that while they are on the cusp on contention, they aren't close enough to begin signing 30-year-old players to long-term deals.

To win at this level, a team must have quality pitching and solid defense to go along with timely hitting.

Right now, the Nationals have a strong bullpen and is deep enough to support a contending team. And once the injured starters begin to return, their starting rotation could be as good as anyone in the division.

Let's look at who the Nationals should have available come September 1st:

1. Stephen Strasburg

A once-in-a-generation talent, Strasburg is 4-2, 2.03, 6.7/2.6/12.6 in his first eight starts in the major leagues. He's only going to get better and will likely be the best pitcher in the National League next season, if he's not already.

2. Jordan Zimmermann

A second-round pick in the 2007 draft, Zimmermann played parts of three seasons in the minors and put up Strasburg-like numbers, going 15-6, 2.68, 7.2/2.9/10.0 in 204 innings. He went 3-5, 4.63 in 2009 before Tommy John surgery ended his season.

While his overall numbers with Washington don't look too impressive, he improved as the season progressed, and in his last nine starts went 1-3, 3.18 while allowing opponents a .243 batting average, .305 on-base percentage and .355 slugging mark.

He has been near perfect in his rehab starts this month, keeping his fastball around 94 mph and not walking a batter.

3. Yunesky Maya

Maya, a Cuban defector, was being chased by the Red Sox and Yankees this spring but was signed by the Nationals yesterday.

At 28, Maya is a veteran of the World Baseball Classic and has won the Cuban equivalent of the Cy Young Award. In six seasons in Cuba, Maya went 48-29, 2.51.

Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo said he is "battle tested" and should be in the rotation "this year."

4. Jason Marquis

Bone chips in his elbow landed him on the disabled list earlier this year but has begun his rehab stint and should be ready to rejoin the team sometime in August.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged 14 wins, .9.3/3.4/5.0. With the Rockies last season, he went 15-13, 4.04.

The Nationals could fill their fifth and final spot in the rotation with any of the following players:

John Lannan: The Opening Day starter the past two seasons, Lannan is in the minors right now trying to regain his form. But he is one of just a handful of major league starters with an ERA below 4.00 in both 2008 and 2009, so there is no reason to believe he won't be back in Washington any day.

Chien-Ming Wang: His return from shoulder surgery has taken longer than anticipated, but he expected to return sometime this year. Wang, 29, averaged 19-7, 3.74 in 2006-2007 and was 8-2, 4.04 in 2008 before the injury began to take its toll.

Scott Olsen: Olsen averaged 11 wins for the Marlins from 1006-2008 and is still just 26. He had surgery last season and began this year 2-2, 3.77 before soreness forced him to the disabled list. He too is rehabbing and will be back in the next few weeks.

Ross Detwiler: The former 2007 first-round draft pick went 15-17, 3.94 in the minors before getting called up in 2009. Though he pitched poorly in May and June, he returned in September from a July demotion and was brilliant, going 1-1, 1.90 while allowing opponents a .220 batting average, .319 on-base percent and a .268 slugging mark.

He required surgery this past spring but should be ready to return next month.

Also in the mix is J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.14), Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) and Luis Atilano (6-7, 5.15).

Without doing a thing, the Nationals have put together a pitching staff capable of contending. Oh no, not right now with the rotation full of place-holders, but once the disabled list empties in favor of the rotation, all will be well.

The Nationals need defense and they need more hitting. They can do this by trading Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Livan Hernandez and Matt Capps for prospects and then finding a present or two in the upcoming free agent market.

The Nationals have taken care of the pitching. Now it's time to fix the defense.








Friday, July 9, 2010

J.D. MARTIN CONTINUES TO IMPRESS

When the Washington Nationals signed pitcher J.D. Martin to a minor league contract two years ago, not much was expected from the former Indians' first-round selection.

Though he dominated in the minor leagues, Tommy John surgery in 2005 robbed him of his fastball, and when he returned the following year, he just wasn't the same pitcher.

Although he put up respectable numbers as an Indian farm-hand, they chose not to sign him following the 2008 season and he signed with the Nationals a few weeks later.

He started 16 games for Triple-A Columbus in 2009 (8-3, 2.66) before joining the Nationals' rotation in June.

In his first four starts, he was bad, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA, allowing a .329 batting average-against.

But since then, Martin has been as solid as any of the Nationals' starters not named Strasburg. He has ten quality starts in 19 tries and has given up more than three runs just three times.

In those 19 starts, he as allowed just 9.6 hits and 2.1 walks per nine-innings while striking out 5.1. Martin has averaged more than six innings per start.

J.D. Martin will never be a front-of-the-rotation guy, but more often than not, he will give his team a chance to win.