Sunday, May 30, 2010

J.D. MARTIN DESERVES TO BE IN THE NATIONALS STARTING ROTATION

Everyone had forgotten about J.D. Martin until he took the mound for the Washington Nationals this past weekend. With Scott Olsen’s arm still sore, Martin was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to fill in against the San Diego Padres.

Though he took the loss, he pitched well, allowing just four hits and one earned run in six innings, striking out five while walking no one.

Martin has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. In the past two seasons—both with the Chiefs—Martin has a fine record of 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, allowing just 7.6 hits and 1.2 walks per nine-innings while striking out 6.2.

I still believe that Martin will one day become a permanent fixture in the Nationals’ rotation, a John Lannan clone.

And there is nothing wrong with having two John Lannan’s in the rotation.

An 11th-round afterthought in 2005, Lannan climbed the minor league ladder quickly, going a combined 12-3, 2.87 before finishing the season with the Nationals where the 22-year-old went 2-2, 4.15.

Since then, Lannan has won 20 games and been the team’s presumptive ace.

If the Nationals could find just one more pitcher to come out of nowhere, the team’s future would seem far more secure than in past seasons.

And Martin just seems to be the logical choice to do just that.

It’s not that Martin wasn’t a known commodity in the baseball world. The Cleveland Indians chose the high school pitcher in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft, using their compensation pick for the departed Manny Ramirez.

Martin had tremendous control and a good fastball with movement when he began his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the Indians organization, he went a combined 19-6, 3.17, allowing 2.5 walks per nine innings while striking out 11.

He was dominant.

However, his strikeouts all but disappeared in 2004 as he toughed through an 11-10, 4.39 season in the Class-A Carolina League. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped to six and his arm felt sore towards the end of the season.

There were signs of an arm injury, but it was hoped that an off-season of rest would help Martin regain both his strength and his fastball.

And it seemed to work. Ten games into the 2005 season, Martin was 3-1, 2.38 and was again striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. However, the sore arm returned and he was forced to undergo reconstructive “Tommy John” surgery that July.

He returned late in 2006, and over the next three years crafted a combined record of 15-8, 3.31, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, in 2008, his last year with the Indians, he was primarily a reliever; the team didn’t feel he was good enough—or strong enough— to be a starter any more.

Believing that he could still be an effective starter, Martin left the Indians as a six-year minor league free agent and looked for a major league franchise with pitching woes and therefore a quick path to the big leagues.

His first call was to the Washington Nationals.

He quickly became the team’s premier minor league pitcher, going 8-3, 2.66 in 15 starts with Triple-A Syracuse in 2009.

But he was not the same pitcher anymore. Martin began pitching to contact and threw strikes, lots of them. With Syracuse, he struck out six per nine innings while walking just one, an amazing walk to strikeout ratio at any level.

In nine minor league seasons, Martin had compiled an outstanding record of 56-28 with a 3.29 ERA and yet he’d never had the opportunity to pitch in a major league game.

That changed, however, when the Nationals’ Scott Olsen was lost for the season with an arm injury and the team desperately needed a fill-in arm.

Enter J.D. Martin.

In 15 starts with Washington in 2009, Martin went 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA.

He showed he had the ability, the tenacity, and the desire to succeed at the major league level. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well, yet by the time he walked off the mound, he more often than not had his team in a position to win.

But let’s look at his internal numbers and compare then with the aforementioned Lannan, the Nationals’ best starter over the past two seasons.

Hits per 9 innings:
Lannan: 9.2
Martin: 9.9

Homers allowed per 9 innings:
Lannan: 1.0
Martin: 1.6

Walks per 9 innings:
Lannan: 3.0
Martin: 2.8

Strikeouts per 9 innings:
Lannan: 3.9
Martin: 4.3

Baserunners per 9 innings:
Lannan: 1.35
Martin: 1.42

In virtually every category of statistical significance, the two were nearly identical. It would seem that the Nationals have indeed found their second out-of-the-blue starting pitcher.

But the news just gets better, just as Martin did as the season progressed.

In his first four starts, Martin gave up 13 runs, 24 hits, and five walks in just 16 innings. Since then, however, he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation. Take a look at Martins numbers compared to Lannan’s in their last 11 starts of 2009:

Innings Pitched:
Martin: 60
Lannan: 63

ERA:
Martin: 3.71
Lannan: 4.95

Hits per nine innings:
Martin: 10.1
Lannan: 10.2

Walks per nine innings:
Martin: 3.0
Lannan: 2.6

Strikeouts per nine innings:
Martin: 2.1
Lannan: 2.0

Batting average-against:
Martin: .264
Lannan: .263

On-base percentage allowed:
Martin: .330
Lannan: .332

Slugging percentage allowed:
Martin: .455
Lannan: .437

Percentage of pitches that were strikes:
Martin: 63%
Lannan: 63%

Line drives allowed:
Martin: 17%
Lannan: 25%

Team record in starts:
Martin: 8-3
Lannan: 4-7

Once Martin gained some experience at the major league level, he was able to match Lannan pitch-for-pitch over the last third of the season. So what’s the difference between team “ace” John Lannan and Martin?

About 55 career starts. In other words, experience.

He wasn’t given much of a chance in spring training, pitching far less innings than his competition (Craig Stammen pitched 19.2 innings, Martin just 10). It was obvious he was heading to Syracuse.

But just like last year, an injury to Scott Olsen gave Martin a chance in 2010, and he took advantage of it. Initial reports from the Nationals indicate that Martin will start at least one more game for the injured Olsen.

If he pitches well again, Martin might remain with the Nationals for a while longer.

Most of us have scoffed at former general manager Jim Bowden’s penchant for signing minor league pitchers off the scrap heap. It just never seemed to work.

This time, however, Bowden was right.

J. D. Martin might not be a sexy option for the team’s rotation, but he’s still young, gets major league batters out, and is at worst a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Here’s hoping, anyway.

WILL IAN DESMOND LIVE UP TO DEREK JETER COMPARISONS?


When then general manager Jim Bowden compared Ian Desmond to future Hall-of–Fame shortstop Derek Jeter, his team had yet to play a game as the Washington Nationals. Fans had never heard of Desmond, a 19-year-old Floridian who was taken in the third-round of the 2004 amateur draft.

And we thought Bowden was out of his mind.

From 2005—the year of Bowden’s comparison—through 2008, Desmond played nothing like Derek Jeter. In fact, he played nothing like a prospect. He couldn’t field and he couldn’t hit. He was still playing for Class-A Potomac in 2007. Injuries took their toll.

In five minor league seasons, he had a career .248 batting average. When 2009 began, Danny Espinosa—and not Desmond—was the club’s top shortstop prospect.

Then, all of a sudden, Desmond “got it.”

Splitting time between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Desmond batted .330/.401/.477 last season, hitting seven homers and driving in 32 runs.

In a September call-up, he batted .280-4-25 in just 152 at-bats (.280-15-92 over a full season).

Desmond beat out Cristian Guzman this spring and has played as well as anyone had hoped, perhaps even better.

So what about that comparison to Jeter? Was Bowden right five springs ago?

Let’s take a look.

In 2371 minor league at-bats, Derek Jeter batted .308/.384/.418, hitting a home run every 111 at-bats. Desmond, in 1777 games, hit .260/.326/.388 with a homer every 47 at-bats.

Clearly, Jeter was a much better minor league hitter though Desmond showed more extra-base power.

Defensively, though, their minor league defense was almost identical.

Jeter played 451 minor league games and committed 133 errors, one every 3.33 games. Desmond played in 638 minor league games and made 189 errors, or one every 3.33 games.

Amazing.

Desmond did have a better range factor in the minors, though, 4.47 to Jeter’s 4.40.

Both players had a September call-up before taking over as their respective team’s everyday shortstop the next season. Let’s compare their offensive production at the May 29th mark of their first season:

At-Bats:
Jeter: 156
Desmond: 152

Runs:
Jeter: 26
Desmond: 18

Hits:
Jeter: 42
Desmond: 41

Doubles:
Jeter: 3
Desmond: 7

Triples:
Jeter: 3
Desmond: 2

Home Runs:
Jeter: 2
Desmond: 4

Runs Batted In:
Jeter: 21
Desmond: 25

Batting Average/On Base Pct./Slugging Pct.
Jeter: .269/.374/.365
Desmond: .270/.311/.421

At this stage of the season, Jeter was able to draw more walks and hit for a better on-base percentage but Desmond has shown more power, having more doubles, home runs and RBI.

There is no question that Desmond, at least offensively, is the equal of Jeter at this early stage in their careers.

Now let’s compare Jeter’s completed rookie-season statistics with Desmond’s current numbers projected out over a full season:

Runs:
Jeter: 104
Desmond: 66

Hits:
Jeter: 183
Desmond: 152

Doubles:
Jeter: 25
Desmond: 26

Triples:
Jeter: 6
Desmond: 8

Home Runs:
Jeter: 10
Desmond: 15

Runs Batted In:
Jeter: 78
Desmond: 92

Batting Average/ On-Base Pct. / Slugging Pct.
Jeter: .314/.370/.402
Desmond: .270/.311/.421

Jeter batted at or near the top of the Yankees’ lineup in 1996 while Desmond has hit mostly at the bottom of the Nationals’ lineup in 2010.

That would explain some of the difference between the player’s on-base percentages and batting averages (Desmond, batting seventh or eighth, sees far fewer quality pitches than Jeter did batting first or second).

That said, it is clear that Desmond will never have the high batting average and on-base percentage of Jeter, but he will hit for a little more power.

In his young career, Desmond is averaging 19 home runs and 87 RBI over a 162-game season while Jeter has averaged 17 homers and 81 RBI (but it took Jeter four seasons to begin showing the power that Desmond is showing right now).

Defense, though, is where the comparisons between Jeter and Desmond get interesting.

Again, let’s compare Jeter’s first full season in the major leagues with what Desmond is projected to do this season:

Errors:
Jeter: 22
Desmond: 40

Double Plays:
Jeter 83
Desmond: 111

Fielding Percent:
Jeter: .969
Desmond: .950

RTOT (number of runs above or below average player)
Jeter: -14
Desmond: 5

Range Factor (the player’s defensive range)
Jeter: 3.82
Desmond: 5.22

A couple of things stand out here. First, Desmond makes a lot of errors. Second, his far superior range allows him to finish more double plays and get to balls that Jeter can’t get to, saving far more runs that his errors allow.

If you look just at errors and fielding percent, Jeter wins hands down in the player’s first-year comparison.

But if you look at all the factors, Desmond has the potential to be a very special defensive short stop.

Can Ian Desmond cut down on that ugly error total? Yes, I think so. Jeter once committed 56 errors in the minor leagues so if Jeter can get better, so can Desmond.

So, was Jim Bowden right that spring day in Viera Florida when he said flat out that Desmond reminded him favorably of the Yankees’ all-star shortstop?

Derek Jeter is a one-of-a-kind shortstop, so any comparison to him is patently unfair. That said, it is conceivable that Ian Desmond could have a career similar to—but not as good as—Jeter.

If Desmond’s power increases like Jeter’s did, Desmond could become a stellar defensive shortstop that will hit .280-23-90 by 2015 or so.

Let’s forget Bowden’s comparison to Jeter and just say that Ian Desmond returned from the abyss of unfulfilled minor league talent and has helped transform a 100+ loss team into a franchise on the periphery of a wild-card pennant race.

And that’s good enough for me.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

CHRIS MARRERO NOT THE PLAYER WE HOPED HE WOULD BE

When the Nationals picked infielder Chris Marrero with their first round pick in 2006 (15th over all), it was assumed it would be just a matter of time before the young slugger would anchor the Nationals' major league lineup.

Then general manager Jim Bowden saw Marrero as the perfect complement to Ryan Zimmerman, who was drafted the season before. Bowden believed that while Marrero wouldn't hit for a high average like Zimmerman, he would have more power and drive in more runs.

Sadly, it hasn't turned out that way.

Playing at Low-A ball, Marrero batted .302/.371/.420 and showed good power. Promoted to High-A Potomac, his numbers dropped to .270/.344/452 and in 233 at-bats at Double-A Harrisburg, his numbers fell to .262/.320/.421.

However, Marrero is warming up. After a slow start, he has hit home runs in four consecutive games for Double-A Harrisburg and is on pace to hit .259-24-84 this season with a .308 on-base percentage and a .437 slugging mark.

Regardless, I doubt Marrero is in the team's long-term plans.

He was a natural third baseman in high school, but was moved to the outfield because of Ryan Zimmerman. Marrero, however, played poorly there and is now at first base.

I'm sure the Nationals would rather resign Adam Dunn to a three-year contract rather than take a chance on Marrero as their every-day first baseman beginning in 2011.

Chris Marrero is a poor defender whose major league ceiling is probably somewhere in the vicinity of .270-22-80, good enough for a corner outfielder but not for a first baseman.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded--perhaps this summer--for a quality starter, someone who might help the Nationals enter their first pennant chase since 2005.

Like, oh, I don't know .... Roy Oswalt?

Sunday, May 23, 2010

KENNEDY/GUZMAN MAKING NATIONALS FANS FORGET ORLANDO HUDSON


Nationals' fans were very upset this spring when their team came "this close" to signing all-star second baseman Orlando Hudson for the second consecutive year only to see him get scooped up by another team at the last minute.

The Nationals quickly signed their "Plan B," Adam Kennedy, and have used him as well as former starting shortstop Cristian Guzman at second so far this season.

Has the loss of Hudson been as bad as it might have been?

Playing for the Twins, Hudson is batting .298/.376/.381 with two home runs and 12 RBI this season. The combination of Guzman and Kennedy are hitting .302/.350/.374 with two homers and 29 RBI.

So offensively, at least, the Nationals are doing quite well without Hudson.

Friday, May 21, 2010

NATIONALS OFFENSE COMPARES FAVORABLY TO N.L. EAST RIVALS

The Washington Nationals are on pace to win 81 games this season, far better than anyone imagined when the team broke camp in Florida just two months ago.

Most of the pre-season predictions for the Nationals were in the 70-73 win range, and the majority of fans would have been very happy if the team did that well in 2010.

But the Nationals—who were five games over .500 just a week or so ago—have now lost six out of their last seven games and many are blaming their current woes on an overworked bullpen and a sub-par offense.

No question, Tyler Clippard (7-2, 2.22) and closer Matt Capps (0-1, 2.11, 15/15) had a rough week, but both seem rested and pitched well in the just-completed series against the New York Mets.

But what about the offense?

Are the questions that are currently surrounding the Nationals’ offensive production warranted?

Here is how the Nationals’ offensive statistics should look at the end of the season if they maintain their current production. The average for that position within the division is listed in parenthesis and does not include Nationals’ players:

First Base—Adam Dunn
.261-36-76 (Division average: .281-21-77)

Dunn is producing as expected, and his overall numbers are as good as—and in some cases better than—his division rivals. His on-base percentage (.386) and slugging percent (.558) are career bests.

Second Base—Cristian Guzman & Adam Kennedy
.297-8-92 (Division average: .294-25-75)

Other than home runs, Guzman and Kennedy’s offensive production matches the rest of the division, and that says something considering the National League East is home to Martin Prado, Chase Utley and Dan Uggla.

Shortstop—Ian Desmond
.277-12-76 (Division average: .265-8-40)

The rookie 24-year-old is doing an excellent job with the bat, especially when you consider that he’s batted eighth in the order most of the season and hasn’t seen many good pitches to hit.

He’s outhitting the Mets’ Jose Reyes and the Braves’ Yunel Escobar and is second among division shortstops with 19 RBI.

Third Base—Ryan Zimmerman
.311-32-100 (Division average: .267-20-90)

Zimmerman won the Silver Slugger last year and is on pace to do it again this season. His batting average, home runs and RBI totals are all higher than the division average.

Catcher—Ivan Rodriguez
.333-4-60 (Division average: .286-18-55)

Though there is little chance that Pudge will finish the season with these type of numbers, he has given the Nationals a quality bat in the lower half of their lineup, something they didn’t have last year.

Left Field—Josh Willingham
.262-24-92 (Division average: .278-8-62)

Willingham’s production is by far the best within the division for a left fielder and you can’t ask much more from a number-five hitter. He has a team-best .413 on-base percentage and a .468 slugging mark.

Center Field—Nyjer Morgan
.255-0-32 (Division average: .245-15-66)

Though Morgan’s batting average is 40 points lower than his career average, his on-base percent of .341 is certainly good enough until his bat heats up.

Right Field—Roger Bernadina
.281-8-52 (Division average: .276-22-102)

Right field is the strength of the National League East and Bernadina’s numbers do pale in comparison. However, he won the job just ten days ago and so his projected production is somewhat skewed.

If you project his current numbers over a 162-game season, and Bernadina would hit .281-20-80 with a .333 on-base percentage and 20 steals.

The Nationals have four players (Dunn, Desmond, Zimmerman and Willingham) whose offensive production is better than the division average, two (Guzman/Kennedy and Rodriguez) who are producing at the division average and two (Morgan and Bernadina) whose production are worse than the division average.

This is a bad offense?

Here is how the Nationals currently rank in the National League:

Batting average: seventh
On-base percentage: eighth
Slugging average: sixth
Runs: eleventh
Hits: seventh
Doubles: sixth
Triples: first
Home runs: ninth
Stolen bases: third

So what does all this mean?

The Washington Nationals have a good-enough offense, though not a great one. The problem is that too many of the players are streak hitters, which means that it’s going to be feast-or-famine for weeks at a time.

Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham can all carry the team for a month, but when they turn cold, games that the team was winning 6-4 suddenly become 4-1 losses.

This offense can lead the Washington Nationals into the playoffs when manager Jim Riggleman can pick his starting rotation from a group that includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Stephen Strasburg, Scott Olsen, Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen and Jordan Zimmermann.

Until then, however, the Nationals are one big-bat away from contention. To get it, they will have to look outside the organization, and would have to trade some of the team’s excess starting pitching—and perhaps one of their prized prospects—to get it.

I think that cost is too high.

If Strasburg is in the rotation by mid-June, and Wang and Marquis are healthy and pitching by the all-star game, the Nationals could win 85 games this season. Making a trade for one more big-bat could get the team close to 90 wins.

Predictions are fun, but with this team they can be precarious. Will Stephen Strasburg come close to repeating his minor league dominance in the National League? Can former all-star Jason Marquis and two-time 19-game-winner Chien Ming Wang return from injuries and pitch to their potential in the season’s second half?

If they don’t, it will still be a nice season for Washington. But, boy, if they do …..