It seems a near-certainty now that the Adam Dunn era in Washington is over. Several stories are circulating today that the Nationals are hot to sign Tampa's Carlos Pena to upgrade their defense at first. Though the rumors have persisted this past summer, I really didn't believe them. Pena is older than Dunn and been in an offensive downward spiral since he first burst onto the scene in 2007 when he hit .282-46-121 with a .411 on-base percent for the then Devil Rays.
Since, Pena's average has dropped to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009 and .196 last season. For his career, Pena has averaged .241-35.98 over a 162-game season.
Defensively, Pena is without question an upgrade at first. However, he's a very good--but not great--defender.
If in fact the Nationals sign Pena, it will likely be for no more than two years, perhaps just one with an option to protect the team if he continues to hit below the Mendoza line. Chris Marrero, who has proven he will be a capable-but-not-great major league hitter, could be ready for a major league promotion by next season's All-Star break.
Tyler Moore, who hit .269-31-111 for Class-A Potomac last season, would normally begin next season at Double-A Harrisburg, but for now, Marrero will block him until he is either traded this winter or promoted next summer. Moore has nothing left to prove in Potomac and needs to be challenged by Eastern League pitching.
Should Carlos Pena join the Nationals, the team won't stop there. They will have to add more offense elsewhere and more trades or signings will be in the works. And if the team replaces Dunn because of his defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Josh Willingham and/or Michael Morse are traded along with a few prospects for equal hitters but superior defenders.
For now, I trust Mike Rizzo's decision. There is no way that Pena will hit .196 again, but don't expect more than a .245-30-90 type of production for the 32-year-old left-hander.
Here's hoping ....
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