Tuesday, November 30, 2010

NATIONALS NEED TO STAY AWAY FROM THESE "TOP TIER" PITCHERS


Jorge de la Rosa

There seems to be a lot of long faces this morning now that pitcher Jorge de la Rosa has resigned with the Colorado Rockies last night for a three-year, $32 million contract.

The question I have is why is that a bad thing? Just like Javier Vazquez the day before, not signing de la Rosa can't be anything but good for the still-building Washington Nationals.

de la Rosa will turn 30 before the start of the season. Before joining the Rockies in 2008, he played for both the Brewers and Royals, combining to go 15-23, 5.85, 10.4/5.2/6.4. In his three seasons with Colorado, he has gone 34-24, 4.49, still walking four batters per nine-innings.

Much has been said of the Coors Field effect on his ERA. But last season, de la Rosa went 6-3, 4.10 at home while going 2-4, 4.36 on the road.

In other words, he pitched better in Denver then he did around the National League.


Sammy Solis

He's intriguing because he is a strikeout pitcher, averaging eight per nine-innings over his career. However, de la Rosa has also averaged almost five walks per nine-innings over that same span.

This isn't the kind of guy who is going to help turn around the Washington Nationals. Unless he pulls a Sandy Koufax--that is, turn things around later in his career--de la Rosa is just another pitcher who could on any given night be superb ... or not.

Again, I'd much rather head into next season with John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, Livan Herandez in the front of the rotation with either Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler bringing up the rear. And lets not forget last year's second-round pick Sammy Solis, who pitched well in the Arizona Fall League this month and who many scouts say won't need very much time in the minor leagues.

And when Stephen Strasburg returns from Tommy John surgery--probably in August--that will be a very solid rotation.

While I appreciate Mike Rizzo's efforts, if he can't bring in someone like Matt Garza or Zach Greinke, there is no one out there that much better than the players the Nationals currently have. I think it's time to let the Nationals' kids--the ones who have talent--learn on the job.

Yeah. We're that close.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

NATIONALS DODGE BULLET: JAVIER VAZQUEZ SIGNS WITH MARLINS


Livan & Javier: From the Same Mold
Bill Ladson of nationals.com is reporting that Javier Vazquez, who had been courted by the Nationals this off-season, has signed with the Florida Marlins.

Vazquez, 34, signed a one-year, incentive-laden contract after a 10-10, 5.32, 8.9/3.7/6.9 disaster with the Yankees. The number of teams he could sign with were limited, partly due to his poor 2010 performance and partly because he wanted to play in a city near his family's Puerto Rican home.

I am very thankful for many things during this Thanksgiving weekend, including the Nationals not signing Vazquez to any length of contract.

Prior to his comeback year with the Braves in 2009 (15-10, 2.87), Vazquez averaged just 13-12, 4.50 from 2004 through 2008. For his career, he's averaged 12-12, 4.26 over a full major league season.

During those same seasons (2004-2008), our own Livan Hernandez averaged an almost identical 13-12, 4.57 and last season was 10-12, 3.66, allowing almost a full run less per nine-innings pitched than Vazquez.

If the Nationals were able to sign Hernandez to a minor-league contract in 2010 and resign him to a nominal major league deal for 2011, why would Javier Vazquez cost the team any more?

And really, why would the team even want another end-of-the-road, end-of-the-rotation type of pitcher?

Returning from last season are John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmerman and Livan, and all are guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation.

When Stephen Strasburg returns in August or September, he'll grab that fifth and final spot.

That means that as of right now, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler, and J.D. Martin--who have all succeeded to some extent at the major league level--don't even have a major league job.

The only way that adding another aging pitcher to the rotation makes sense would be if the Nationals are looking to trade quantity for quality, perhaps moving Lannan and Detwiler as parts of a package for the Royals' Zach Greinke. And if that's not the plan, a young and maturing team doesn't need Livan-1 and Livan-2, i.e. Hernandez and Vazquez.

This is a win-win signing. It's good for the Marlins for getting Javier Vazquez and good for the Nationals for not getting him.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Will Carlos Pena Power Nationals in 2011?

It seems a near-certainty now that the Adam Dunn era in Washington is over. Several stories are circulating today that the Nationals are hot to sign Tampa's Carlos Pena to upgrade their defense at first.

Though the rumors have persisted this past summer, I really didn't believe them. Pena is older than Dunn and been in an offensive downward spiral since he first burst onto the scene in 2007 when he hit .282-46-121 with a .411 on-base percent for the then Devil Rays.

Since, Pena's average has dropped to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009 and .196 last season. For his career, Pena has averaged .241-35.98 over a 162-game season.

Defensively, Pena is without question an upgrade at first. However, he's a very good--but not great--defender.

If in fact the Nationals sign Pena, it will likely be for no more than two years, perhaps just one with an option to protect the team if he continues to hit below the Mendoza line. Chris Marrero, who has proven he will be a capable-but-not-great major league hitter, could be ready for a major league promotion by next season's All-Star break.

Tyler Moore, who hit .269-31-111 for Class-A Potomac last season, would normally begin next season at Double-A Harrisburg, but for now, Marrero will block him until he is either traded this winter or promoted next summer. Moore has nothing left to prove in Potomac and needs to be challenged by Eastern League pitching.

Should Carlos Pena join the Nationals, the team won't stop there. They will have to add more offense elsewhere and more trades or signings will be in the works. And if the team replaces Dunn because of his defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Josh Willingham and/or Michael Morse are traded along with a few prospects for equal hitters but superior defenders.

For now, I trust Mike Rizzo's decision. There is no way that Pena will hit .196 again, but don't expect more than a .245-30-90 type of production for the 32-year-old left-hander.

Here's hoping ....